Cover Story 
 

Cover Story

Great Expectations

When the new President of the USA is sworn in, Pakistan must not let
its hopes fly high as there may be quite a few surprises waiting for it.

By Justice (R) M. Shaiq Usmani | January 2021

great_expectations

From the very beginning Pakistan’s relationship with the USA has been predicated upon the kind of relationship that India has with the USA. In the early years of Pakistan, our inclination was towards the USA because Nehruvian India claimed to be socialist and non-aligned, hence it was more welcome in the Soviet camp. Consequently, our Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan actually declined an invitation to visit the Soviet Union in the early years and instead chose to visit the USA to further aggravated the strain in the relationship between Soviet Union and Pakistan and there grew a somewhat obsequious relationship between Pakistan and America, subsequently condescendingly acknowledged by Gen. Ayub Khan in his book titled “Friends, not Masters”.

In so far as USA was concerned they were not particularly enamoured by Pakistan. If anything, they felt closer to India, because of its size, secularist profile, at least at that time and the all-pervading charisma of late Gandhi because of his advocacy of non-violence. American interest in Pakistan at the time stemmed primarily from their desire to create a military block against the Soviet Union in the days when the Iron Curtain was firmly in place which led to Pakistan becoming a part of the Baghdad pact along with Turkey and Pahlavi Iran. As per the internal politics of USA in the post-Second World War era, it so happened that the Republican Party was fired with the Mcarthyist zeal of anticommunism while the Democrats claiming to be liberal and left of the Centre in their political philosophy were somewhat more accommodating to the Socialist block. As a result, traditionally the Republicans showed a certain soft corner for Pakistan because of its antipathy towards communism while the Democrats preferred socialist India.

Such has been the scenario in the subcontinent ever since, a Republican President in the White House usually looked favourably upon Pakistan while a Democrat President invariably tilted towards India. But this tilt was not ideological, it was more like calling checkmate in a game of chess because till then no direct move was made by either of the two superpowers to actually move to dislodge each other from their respective sphere of influence. However, all this changed when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1980. It is then that USA decided to have the Soviet Union expelled to deny them access to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea and the South Asian hinterland and thus had no choice but to lean on Pakistan for assistance. Pakistan saw in this a great opportunity not only from the financial point of view because of prospects of American aid but also to bolster their military’s ability to enable them to deter the Indians generally and from using Afghanistan against Pakistan and in the bargain also have a friendly government in Afghanistan that had been the dream of Pakistan from the very beginning.

As a result Pakistan gave full support to the USA, short of actually having troops on the ground in Afghanistan. This large-scale American involvement in the region ended with the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan and eventual collapse of the Soviet Union itself and the end to a bipolar world and the removal of the Iron Curtain. The major dividend for Pakistan from this was that it also resulted in the installing of a Taliban government in Afghanistan, which at long last was friendly to Pakistan, a dream come true.

Thus, for the first time, Pakistan since its creation felt safe on its Western border and ironically enough, the USA also benefited from it since they now found themselves to be masters of all that they surveyed in a unipolar world sans the Soviet Union. But then the Taliban under the influence of Salafi Islam instigated and supported by Osama Bin Laden overplayed their hand and became a party to the 9/11 fiasco launched at the behest of Osama Bin Laden. The Americans then were shaken from their somnolence and had inevitably to lean on Pakistan again through a stick and carrot approach to assist them to invade Afghanistan. Pakistan thus found itself ensconced firmly in the American camp regardless of whether a Republican or a Democrat president was in the White House and in their desire to please the Americans, the Pakistan government even went to the extent of turning a blind eye to the Americans violating its sovereignty by taking out Osama Bin Laden through a commando action within Pakistani territory, no doubt to its great embarrassment. This happened of course in the watch of a Republican President i.e George Bush. However, by the time George Bush’s term ended and a Democrat President was installed in the White House, Afghanistan had lost its importance for the Americans. It just became more of a nuisance because of its becoming a base for terrorist activities. Consequently the Democrats reverted to their original inclination to tilt towards India to use it to keep the Afghan terrorists at bay. President Obama made the tilt into an embrace and America’s relationship with India progressed to the extent that Modi of India actually claimed to be on first name frequency with Barack Obama.

when Joe Biden won the Democratic Party’s nomination for contesting the election for President, there was not much excitement in Pakistan.

The subsequent ushering in of Donald Trump, a Republican in the White House, seemed to be a good omen for Pakistan but Donald Trump in the very beginning got involved in war against the “Islamic State” in Iraq and Syria with such ferocity that he became a victim of Islamophbia. Coupled with it, his failure to contain Iran and the espousal of uninhibited support for Israel and his virulent anti-Chinese policy brought him closer to India, thereby increasing the distance between Pakistan and the USA. The Republican Trump thus donned the garb of the traditional Democrat in so far as Pakistan was concerned and eventually went to the extent of stopping all aid to Pakistan. Thus the relationship between Pakistan and the USA came to its lowest ebb in their association of seventy years. The only saving grace was that at long last the USA lost interest in pursuing its war in Afghanistan which led to improving of the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan and also to the increase of China’s influence in Iran and Afghanistan which too, brought dividends to Pakistan.

Nevertheless Pakistan’s military, being greatly dependant on US military aid, was not happy with these developments in the domain of foreign policy. Consequently, when Donald Trump’s term was nearing its end, while in India Modi actively campaigned for him to be elected for a second term. Pakistan felt apprehensive about the impending change in the White House.

It is true that Joe Biden, the Democrat party candidate for the Presidency, while as a Vice President of Barack Obama did not show any particular leaning towards India but the fact of the matter was that Joe Biden was so much overshadowed by Obama that he was almost a non-entity and his inclinations were of little consequence. Consequently, when Joe Biden won the Democratic Party’s nomination for contesting the election for President, there was not much excitement in Pakistan. Most people in Pakistan grudgingly hoped for Donald Trump to be re-elected in the expectation that perhaps he will revert to the Republicans adopting the traditional favourable posture towards Pakistan. However, the blunders made by Trump during his last few months of Presidency when he came out to be openly racist and anti-China and displayed complete lack of concern for the Covid-19 pandemic, made people in Pakistan uncomfortable and even though Joe Biden’s personality did not inspire any confidence they thought that perhaps after all a Democrat President would be preferable to a Republican one because of their bad experience with Trump. On the face of it such expectations make a great deal of sense in the present scenario where India is showing greater signs of belligerence and is openly out to obliterate the disputed status of Kashmir and aspires to somehow deprive Pakistan of the benefits of CPEC and thus mar the resulting economic development of the country. More than that, Pakistan’s greatest concern is that the departure of American troops from Afghanistan, which has already commenced and Joe Biden is not likely to do anything to stop it, may result in increase of Indian influence in Afghanistan. Moreover, the halting of military aid from America, which may not be resumed at a time when India is displaying an increasing jingoistic trend in the region, is of great concern to Pakistan’s military.

The question is whether Joe Biden will rise to Pakistan’s expectations? So far Biden has made no policy statement in this regard, perhaps because of the shenanigans of Trump in seeking to overturn the election results through the courts. However, the indication seems to be that Joe Biden is not likely to be a friend of Pakistan firstly because he was a vice president of Obama who was certainly no friend of Pakistan. Secondly as old habits die hard, in the present scenario where the future USA is bound to come into conflict with China because of its rising clout in the world, would make the USA look askance on the traditional friendship between China and Pakistan, and hence is bound to make it come closer to India. In this connection it cannot be ignored that Joe Biden has chosen Anthony Blinken, one of the architects of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a supporter of the apartheid state of Israel to be his Secretary of State. Thus Joe Biden instead of being a Liberal Democrat is looking more like a utopian Conservative and is likely to end up being more royalist than the king himself. The people of Pakistan therefore, should not have any positive expectations from the forthcoming change in the White House.

Read More