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Prepare for the Worst

It would be a remarkable achievement if, after nearly five decades of hostility, Iran and the United States succeeded in reconciling their differences

By Dr. Moonis Ahmar | May 2026


In April 2026, U.S-Iran relations took a 180-degree turn when, after 47 years, the two adversaries unleashed the process of direct negotiations following 40 days of war. Since the outset of the Islamic revolution in Iran in February 1979 and the hostage crisis from November 1979 till January 1981, the rupture in Iran-U.S. relations was complete. The U.S supported Iraq in its war with Iran from 1980 88 and used all resources at its disposal to destabilize the Iranian regime, but failed in its endeavor. The last attempt was made on February 28 this year when America, along with Israel, attacked Iran and for 40 days bombed Iranian cities, its infrastructure, and killed its top civilian and military leadership. But, having failed to achieve its objectives like regime change, dismantling its missile and nuclear program, the U.S agreed to negotiate with Tehran in Islamabad following a 2-week ceasefire, which was extended unilaterally by U.S. President Donald Trump on April 21.

Is the mending of Iran-U.S. relations possible? What is the role of Track-I diplomacy to normalize Iran-U.S. ties? When can Track-II and Track-III diplomacy be launched to widen the scope of normalization in Iran-U.S. relations? What are the impediments to sorting out unresolved issues between Iran and the U.S., and to what extent Israel will try to subvert the American-Iranian normalization process? These are the questions that are raised from various quarters, looking for optimism and a silver lining to replace 47 years of hostility and mistrust with warmth and trust between Iran and the U.S.

Before the Islamic revolution in Iran, the Muslim country was a part of the U.S. two-pillar policy in the Persian Gulf. One pillar was Saudi Arabia, and the second pillar was Iran. The collapse of Shah’s imperial regime in February 1979 led to a 180-degree turn when, from a pro-American ally, Iran pursued a hostile posture with Washington. Iran, after the revolution, also emerged as an icon of anti-American resistance by supporting its allies in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. No other country other than Iran demonstrated the courage to challenge American power in the Gulf and the Middle Eastern region. Despite facing around five decades of sanctions and military intervention by the United States, the Iranian regime remained resilient. As a result of 40 days of war with the U.S., Iran managed to prevent American designs and succeeded in putting the U.S on the back foot. With the use of the Strait of Hormuz coupled with relentless missile and drone attacks on pro-American allies in the Gulf, Iran emerged as a victor so far in its ongoing war with the U.S.

President Trump’s repeated threats of obliterating Iran and taking Iran back to the Stone Age backfired. Such empty threats further galvanized Iranian resilience and motivation. Along with the U.S, Israel also faced the predicament of its failure to seek regime change and dismantle the Iranian missile and nuclear program. Not a singular objective was achieved by the U.S and Israel during their 40 days of war with Iran. The U.S spent 50 billion dollars in its war with Iran, and global losses because of the war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz rose to 250 billion dollars. From the Iranian point of view, it fired drones and missiles at Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members because of the use of American bases for their attacks on Iran. President Trump lamented that neither NATO nor the GCC countries nor their other allies, like Japan and South Korea, came to support his policy on the Strait of Hormuz. Growing frustration and predicament of President Trump and mounting domestic pressure against his war with Iran compelled him to talk to Iran in Islamabad.


Can the Islamabad talks, mediated by Pakistan, help mend fences in U.S.-Iran relations? After all, after 47 years, the two hostile countries held face-to-face talks in Islamabad, leading to a pause in their armed conflict. However, improving Iran-U.S. relations isn’t a simple task, mainly due to three key reasons. Firstly, the long-standing mistrust and suspicion between Iran and the United States really make it difficult to improve their relationship. After holding inconclusive talks with the U.S delegation led by Vice-President J.D Vance in Islamabad, Iran lamented that the U.S failed to honor its trust. Iranian deep-rooted mistrust of the U.S emanates from America attacking Iran when nuclear talks were going on in Geneva in June 2025 and February 2026.

It will be a miracle that, despite almost five decades of hostility, Iran and the U.S can mend fences. Yet, everything is possible if there is a political will, determination, and fair intentions between the two adversaries. Melting of snow as a result of the Islamabad talks is possible. Still, after experiencing enormous destruction as a result of the U.S.-Israeli colossal bombing on Iran, the only way the two sides can patch up is by adopting a flexible approach to managing and resolving contentious issues.

Furthermore, improving Iran-U.S. relations involves maintaining open dialogue through official diplomatic channels, known as Track-I diplomacy. It means that Track-I diplomacy is between the officials of two countries, as had happened between American and Iranian delegations in Islamabad. Track-II diplomacy means holding dialogue at the non-official level when Track-I is also functioning. That dialogue is supported at the official level by the two countries. Track-III diplomacy is purely non-official with no support from the respective governments. The purpose of Track-III dialogue is to build trust and confidence by launching people-to-people diplomacy.

In the case of Iran and the U.S, the holding of Track-I dialogue cannot yield positive results unless the two countries unleash the process of Track-II and Track-III diplomacy. Secret, quiet diplomacy and backchannel negotiations matter for the mending of fences, but dealing with almost five decades of hostilities between Iran and the U.S is not an easy task. It would likely require unleashing the simultaneous process of Track I, Track II, and Track III diplomacy. Since Track-I has been launched in Islamabad, it is required that Track-II and Track-III also be launched in Iran and in the United States.

Confidence-building measures (CBMs) at the military and non-military level between Iran and the United States are the need of the hour, particularly when there is momentum for Track-I diplomacy. It would require cessation of hostile propaganda against each other, respect each other’s sovereignty, pursuing a policy of non-interference and non-intervention in their internal affairs, lifting of sanctions, paying of compensation to Iran for losses which it incurred because of U.S and Israeli attacks, and Iran’s resolve not to engage in proxy war. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open by Iran and the United States is also a need of the hour.

Finally, the U.S. administration and the world must rein in Israel and prevent the Jewish state from destabilizing any agreement reached between Iran and the United States. There are hard-liners both in America and Israel who oppose any sort of agreement with Iran unless there is regime change in Tehran. Such an approach is highly detrimental and disastrous for peace in the region. From any standpoint, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is part of the problem rather than part of the solution. Now it is up to the people of Israel how they get rid of him. Likewise, the U.S war secretary Pete Hegseth is a hardliner, and the Democratic Party is trying to move a resolution in the House of Representatives to impeach him because he is blamed for plunging America into war with Iran without the approval of Congress.

It remains to be seen how developments will unfold in U.S.-Iranian relations and how the two nations, with approximately five decades of hostility, will be able to rebuild diplomatic ties. But if America and Iran express political will and determination, it is possible to turn things around for the better. The second round of U.S-Iran talks in Islamabad, despite Tehran’s reluctance, is a case in point. Because of Iran’s reservations on the U.S attitude and actions like blocking Iranian ports, the second round of talks in Islamabad has been postponed. We can all try to stay positive and be ready for any challenges that come our way.

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