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Cover Story

Between Humiliation and Escalation

Sooner or later, Pakistan may need to reevaluate the merits and drawbacks of persisting with its mediation efforts, considering U.S. President Donald Trump’s tendency to attribute his shortcomings to others

By Ashraf Jehangir Qazi | May 2026


At the time of writing, the second round of talks between Iran and the US, which had been put on hold indefinitely, has been revived due to Pakistan’s exceptional diplomatic efforts, despite the ceasefire having expired. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is in Islamabad, and the US Special Envoy Kushner and War Secretary Steve Witkoff are reportedly on their way. U.S. President Donald Trump says the resumption of talks is at Iran’s request because his blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is collapsing its economy. Araghchi, however, says he is on a regional tour of Pakistan, Oman, and Russia, and that no decision has been made regarding resuming negotiations with the US. Nevertheless, the expectation is that Iran will not embarrass Pakistan by coming to Islamabad and refusing to resume negotiations.

Iran has insisted there can be no negotiations until the U.S. lifts its blockade. It also says it has “new cards to play” if the US resumes the war and is prepared to use force to break the U.S. blockade. According to several experts, while Iran has the upper hand in the Strait of Hormuz, the US controls the surrounding sea and ocean. Iran’s economy has been seriously damaged, and while the people have displayed exemplary courage and patriotism and have militarily embarrassed the mighty US, there must be a limit to how much suffering they can endure.

Moreover, China also needs the oil from the Strait of Hormuz to flow again. While Iran is under economic pressure to resume negotiations, the U.S. knows that a collapse of the negotiations and the continuation of the blockade could result in China revoking its invitation to Trump to visit in mid-May. Such a development could lead to both an escalation and a spreading of the war to the Red Sea on the one hand, and possibly the Taiwan Straits on the other. China does not seek war, but it will not blink in the face of U.S. threats. Trump, on the other hand, is known in the U.S. as “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out). According to one expert, in China, Trump will be looking for a solution “between humiliation and escalation.” He is indeed caught between the need to avoid confrontation with a powerful China and the need to accommodate a blackmailing Israel. In other words, he is between a rock and a hard place!

Fundamentally, this is a conflict between Good and Evil. It is ultimately a conflict for a possible world order that might yet save human civilization from self-destruction, against the current world order that is dominated by arrogant, militarist, imperialist, racist, and genocidal forces that are likely to make the 21st Century the last one for human civilization.

Legally, this is a war imposed by the US and Israel in flagrant violation of international law. The Charter of the United Nations opens with the statement that its purpose is “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.” Accordingly, a war of choice without the authorization of a UN Security Council resolution is considered to be “the supreme international crime because it entails the evil of all other crimes.”

Trump’s participation in the murder of the Iranian political leadership, followed by his targeted murder of 170 schoolgirl children, for which he has never apologized, was proof of absolute contempt for law, morality, and human decency. His massive bombing of Iran’s civilian and industrial infrastructure, accompanied by threats to wipe out Iran as a “civilization,” is both proof of genocidal intent and a textbook case of actual genocide, which is considered “the crime of all crimes.” For Americans, despite their protests, to tolerate such a situation is to be complicit in these crimes.
The US-Israel war on Iran is a continuation and intensification of the US-endorsed, assisted, and supported 80-year Israeli genocide in Palestine. In a very real sense, we are witnessing the Final Crusade of the White Christian world against the Muslim world – as part of an even larger conflict between a fading global hegemon and a rising global power that seeks global peace, prosperity, security, and survival on a UN Charter-based world order. Ironically, but hopefully, a vocal opponent of this heathen-led Final Crusade is the very venerable America-born Pope Leo XIV. The better part of America may yet prevail.


One cannot forecast how long the current war will last, except to surmise that hopefully it will end or significantly de-escalate sooner rather than later. For Trump, the war is feeding negatively into his domestic Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, Christian Zionist, and Jewish support base in a crucial mid-term election year. For the average American, brought up on a diet of anti-Arab, anti-Muslim, anti-Russian, and anti-Chinese counter-factual misinformation, the legal and ethical aspects of the conflict are far less significant than its impact on “the affordability of everything.” Even if the war were to end today, its inflationary impact would not subside quickly.

This explains the desperation of Trump, who is staring at his political demise. An early exit from an increasingly frustrating conflict would enable him to claim victory and increase social spending to alleviate the economic plight of his electoral base. This is the context for Trump’s scheduled visit to China. A failed visit can prove fatal for him domestically and internationally. A successful visit will, however, require him to address China’s concerns about the globally destabilizing impact of his war against Iran. China’s message will be directed as much to Trump as to the US Deep State, which is made up of very seasoned, able, and influential, if not very nice people.

Unfortunately, America’s “centibillionaires” (whose dollars are measured in 12 digits) own the Deep State, and they are interested in the maximization of profits rather than human security and welfare. Moreover, war maximizes profits while minimizing welfare. They follow what Adam Smith 250 years ago described as the “vile maxim of the Masters of Mankind,” which is “all for us, and nothing for the rest of mankind.”

Today, under the ideology of “Crack-up Capitalism,” these 21st-century Masters of Mankind (overwhelmingly American) don the clothes of science and humanity “to oppose social movements, from civil rights and feminism to environmentalism and poverty alleviation.” In place of democracy and the rule of law, they advocate the law of power and of the jungle “to return to a hierarchy of gender, race, and cultural difference.” In other words, the restoration of imperialism and colonialism. Their implied and unspoken solution to the climate crisis is to somehow reduce the world’s population to roughly a third of what it is today by means that are as unmentionable as they are considered unavoidable.

Quinn Slobodian’s two books, ‘Crack-up Capitalism, ‘ ‘A World without Democracy,’ and Hayek’s Bastards’ ‘The Neoliberal Roots of the Populist Right,’ are essential reading for a critical insight into this hi-tech mindset. China and its alternate idea and institutions of shared prosperity stand in the way of this capitalist – and genocidal - dystopia. This is the significance of China today.

Iran has become the pride of the Muslim world – not necessarily of its pro-American elites, but certainly of the vast majority of its exploited “streets”, including Arab and Pakistani streets. Irrespective of sectarian affiliation, the overwhelming majority of the Muslim world will take note of how Iran refused to be crushed by the shock and awe assault of the US and Israel, and how the women of Iran have been able to fully participate in the defense of their country. The conservative clerical regime of Iran had invested in the science and technology education of its women to enable them to double the strength of their country. (An Iranian lady, Maryam Mirzakhani, in 2014 became the first woman ever to win the Fields Medal for Mathematics, which is the equivalent of the Nobel Prize.) Mao Zedong observed, “Women hold up half the sky.” Societies that do not give equal rights to women in today’s world can never compete with those that do.

Finally, we return to the likely resumption of dialogue in Islamabad and the crucial importance of Trump’s visit to China. Trump’s blockade will ultimately prove counterproductive, and the alliance of Iran, China, and Russia will likely frustrate his efforts to diminish China’s attractiveness as a strategic option for the Global South. Will this lead to a cold peace or a hot war? Trump’s preposterous demands on Iran, and the determined support of Russia and China to Iran, suggest Trump will know his limits – except for the hold Israel has over him, and thereby hangs a miserable tale. In that case, Pakistan may have to evaluate the pros and cons of continuing its mediation sooner or later, given Trump’s tendency to blame others for his failures.

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