Under the Biden presidency, it is well expected that the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan will be gradual and conditional and America will likely have some presence in the country for a long time. Could this lead to renewed Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions?
US generals were not happy with Trump’s decision to pull out of Afghanistan and immediately reduce the number of troops to a mere 2500. Earlier Trump had agreed with the Taliban to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan within 14 months. The Kabul government was furious and to placate them Trump reiterated long-standing “conditions” to complete the withdrawals. These included not allowing terrorist organizations to operate from Afghan territory; accepting a ceasefire with Kabul and negotiating with it on an interim Afghan government pending elections, and maintaining the Afghan Constitution which had been approved by a Loya Jirga possibly with some relatively minor changes the Taliban may want which would not alter the basic character of the Constitution. The Taliban regard both the government in Kabul and the current Afghan Constitution as the creation of US military occupation and therefore illegal. They refuse a ceasefire and negotiations with Kabul as long as US troops maintain an active presence in Afghanistan. They have agreed not to attack US forces as long as they do not assist Kabul’s forces against them. While assuring Afghan women they need not fear a Taliban presence in the government and that that woman will have access to education, they also insist that the Islamic character of the Constitution must be maintained. The Taliban are concerned that Kabul and Washington are seeking to bring about a split in their ranks, particularly between the Haqqani group which has great influence with field commanders and the political leadership which is largely from Kandahar and its surrounding areas, many of whom are reported to reside in Pakistan.
A Biden Administration may want to restore the confidence of Kabul, maintain a minimum military presence to contain the Taliban which could be done through private military contractors who will not obey Afghan, US or international law regarding human rights protections, etc. The US will also wish to have intelligence bases to monitor developments in Central Asia especially in regions close to both China and Russia and negotiate an Afghan peace settlement from “a position of strength.”
Pakistan does not want a “premature” US withdrawal either for fear that it would not be able to control the instability that would follow a complete US withdrawal and which would directly impact on Pakistan. But this means no party in Afghanistan would trust Pakistan and India would remain in a more favourable position in Afghanistan compared to Pakistan. Pakistan needs to realize that a “conditions based” withdrawal in practice means no withdrawal. This would go against US public opinion. It would also insure continued Taliban resistance. This would result in US pressure on Pakistan to deny the Taliban leadership any assistance including residing on its territory. The government would not be able to comply because several quarters in Pakistan would oppose a second betrayal of the Taliban who are seen as a bulwark against the Indians becoming too influential in Afghanistan. Unless Pakistan is able to develop an independent, coherent and long-term Afghan policy which is not focussed on India it will not be able to gain the trust of any government in Kabul, contribute to peace and stability in Afghanistan, the safe return of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, and a relationship with Kabul that denies India any leverage against Pakistan in Afghanistan. This will not be possible as long as the foreign office is compelled to be a secondary player in the formulation and implementation of Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy.
What should Pakistan expect from the United States under Joe Biden?
Pakistan has no particular leverage with either the Democratic or Republican Party. It does not have a positive image abroad. Its relationship with the US will remain contingent. The US will expect Pakistan to use whatever leverage it has with the Taliban to facilitate a compromise settlement with the Kabul government. It will continue to keep Pakistan’s nuclear policy and assets under close scrutiny. It will continue to exercise pressure through FATF and international financial institutions. The US will also closely monitor the situation with regard to Pakistan’s alleged association with what it regards as terrorist activity which includes assistance to Kashmiri resistance to Indian occupation, atrocities and genocide. No matter how much Pakistan obliges the US it will not reciprocate with regard to India and Kashmir. Pakistan will never be more than a contingent partner of the US while India is well on the way to becoming a full-fledged ally of the US in the so-called Indo-Pacific region against China which is a trusted friend and ally of Pakistan. Pakistan must cultivate the best possible relations with the US within these parameters.
Pakistan will never be more than a contingent partner of the US while India is well on the way to becoming a full-fledged ally.
What difference will the Biden presidency make to the world?
President Biden will be a one-term President because of his age. His domestic agenda will take up all of his time. In the field of foreign relations China, Russia, Europe, Japan, India, and Climate Change will take up the rest of his time. Trump’s image as the worst ever President of the US makes it easy for the world to by and large welcome the new Biden Administration. He will have a more civilized discourse with most other countries, except possibly Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Russia, etc. He will return to the Paris Climate Agreement. He may consider restoring some of the arms agreements with Russia. His Middle East policy will be essentially unchanged. If Biden does not have control of the Senate he may well be a lame-duck President for the whole of his one-term Administration. In short, Biden will almost certainly do better than Trump although if he follows in the footsteps of Obama he could turn out to be more aggressive than Trump whose bark was worse than his bite. American global leadership will not be restored under Biden.
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