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Arab vs. Arab

The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC highlights a growing rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia and signals a drastic move away from the system shaped by Saudi Arabia

By Yasmeen Mozaffar | June 2026


A nation’s geographical position predominantly influences the dynamics of postwar geopolitics. Ground realities, concerns, issues, and future build-up. Whether it is the devastating events of WWII or any subsequent conflicts, postwar circumstances significantly affected both regional environments and global political landscapes. As George Friedman, “In geopolitics, a nation has no permanent allies or permanent enemies, only permanent interests.”

The Israel-US-Iran war, which began on February 28, 2026, targeted Iran’s military and government sites and resulted in the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, several politicians and security officials. US struck back with admonishment of the shutdown of Iran’s alleged nuclear program, which was basically initiated by the US government itself in 1950 during Reza Shah Pahlavi’s tenure. The US and Iran were at their best in relations at that time.

This friendship started becoming inimical when Mohammad Musaddiq assumed power and nationalized the Iranian oil industry. The US then initiated regime change within Iran, and Pahlavi was reinstated. In 1954, Pahlavi was forced to sign an agreement that awarded the US, British, and French companies 40% of Iran’s oil reserves. In 1979, another regime change occurred: Ayatollah Khomeini assumed leadership following a revolution by the Iranian people that ousted the US-installed Pahlavi. By this time, the Iranian public, tired of foreign interventions in their domestic affairs, saw resentment towards the US rise. This was when the US embassy in Tehran was seized on November 4, 1979. Some 52 American diplomats and civilians were held for 444 days until January 20, 1981. In response, the US froze Iranian assets globally, totaling in excess of $100 billion and imposed sanctions on Iran’s use of nuclear energy and related energy industries. Since then, it has been an ongoing give-and-take.

The ongoing US campaign against Iran also reflects other issues. It gives an impression of the proxy war in affiliation with the state of Israel, which the US got involved in with an absolute miscalculation of Iran’s defensive capabilities. Iran’s retaliation with this strike surprised not only Israel and the US but also its neighbouring countries within the Middle East. With its stern action, Iran has drawn the Arab states into a compulsion to measure the alliance with the superpower and its biggest ally, Israel. They are all engaged with billions of dollars worth of trade and defense agreements with the US. The US has relied on Saudi Arabia and the UAE in normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel within the region. With the Abraham Accords in the air, it has already created an uncomfortable situation among the states themselves.

For decades, there has been distrust and apprehension among Middle Eastern states as they have developed and joined the international community. With the petrodollar bounty, they did establish themselves as competitors, not only in the race for empowerment but also in significant divisions over regional politics. Yemen, Syria, Libya and others drew proxies in the region. Sectarian conflict has been a persistent issue with Iran on the scene as a Shia state and having Persian roots. In fact, Iran has never been considered by its neighbours as an Arab state despite being the key power between Arab states and South Asia.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was founded in 1960 to coordinate and unify petroleum policies among member countries, stabilize prices, and ensure a regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations, with a fair return on capital for those investing in the industry. The cartel rose to international prominence in the 1970s, playing a greater role in global oil markets. Saudi Arabia assumed responsibility for maintaining OPEC’s bylaws to ensure reliability for all beneficiaries. UAE’s recent exit from the cartel reflects a widening gap between the two regional powers and a rejection of the system dictated by Saudi Arabia. This exit threatens OPEC’s capabilities and competencies.



UAE’s reliance on Israel and India has created distrust within the Middle Eastern states. After accepting the Abraham Accords in 2020, UAE and Israel relations have deepened with formal diplomatic ties and a focus on technology, trade, and regional threats, with Israel providing defense systems to the UAE. India joined the duo in 2022, aiming to foster collaboration, particularly in technology and infrastructure development. India already had a presence in the region due to its migrant labor force and trade. Still, it joined the UAE and Israel with the intention of forging a new path and navigating geopolitics and strategic structures. This alliance created an oscillation among the Arab states.

As Iran joins forces with Türkiye, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, and Russia and China become unexpected allies, a new power bloc is forming

India and Israel, despite having connections with Muslim states, have their own agenda. The world continues to witness the genocide of Palestinians by Israel and India’s Hindutva movement and the brutality of Indian rule on Kashmiri Muslims, plus the concept of Greater Israel and Akhund Bharat. Spreading misinformation about Pakistan’s mediation in the US-Iran war is part of it.

The Gulf states, in particular, are already facing a setback from their biggest ally in multiple channels, the superpower US, in the Iran war. This whole episode has thrown them into a swamp to be or not to be. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have already refused to lend their land for strikes against Iran and Lebanon. Despite all the differences, there will always be a particular bond among the states of brotherhood and religious affiliation. Periodically, issues have arisen but have been patched up. From Qatar’s isolation to the war in Yemen, things have been moving on.

Iran has held firm despite all kinds of restrictions. It is resisting with deliberate defense in respect to its national sovereignty. Iran’s diplomatic moves have strengthened its position as the center of global attention and positioned it as a pioneer of a new world order. That is why, at present, countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Türkiye, despite their past grievances, have come forward to help Iran de-escalate tensions between the US and Iran. There is a thorough understanding of the situation and its severe aftereffects not only in West Asia but throughout the Arab region.

Iran has solidly engaged itself in diplomatic negotiations with whoever has come forward to help, even consulting China and Russia to get the matter resolved with preservation of its nuclear competence intact, which was the basic argument of Israel and the US to strike Iran, and withdrawal of Israeli aggression in Lebanon. Türkiye, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia had joined the mediation process initiated by Pakistan. Mediators must have an awareness that there are chances of interruption from elements who don’t favor the ceasefire, leading to the end of the war. India, UAE, and Israel’s interests contradict the pursuit of ending the war. The Gulf states, following Iran’s strikes within their borders on American bases, strongly condemned this action and definitely wish to see Iran lose its ground at least partly. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a global economic disaster. The Gulf states will stay united, whatever the circumstances. They share a lot in common. There might also be the reflection of repentance and regret from the UAE of losing bonds with the Gulf states.

With Iran aligning with Türkiye, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, and Russia and China emerging as unseen allies, this has created a power bloc that will influence not only West Asia but also South Asia and the Gulf states.

On the verge of the US losing its supremacy and Iran making its debut as a sturdier party, Europe and other US allies are also showing an inclination to move towards emerging-power radar. West Asia and the Middle East itself are joining this circle, prioritizing the security and solidarity of states. Mutual defense strategies will be developed not only within the region but also in other states around. Economic policies will also be modified, and the establishment of local markets will be considered. Trade within the region will be prioritized instead of importing goods from the other end of the world. The economic backlash from the closure of Hormuz has raised the issue of building up the neighborhood rather than relying on distant markets.

Anticipating a huge shift in the geopolitics of Arab states, which are undergoing enormous changes, there will still be very slim chances of seeing a stable, secure, self-contained environment for all stakeholders.

The US’s alignment with the Gulf and other states will remain, as it is a major trading partner across multiple sectors. Iran’s existence will remain an annoyance for Arab states in their local politics, sectarian issues, and nuclear capabilities on the agenda. With India, the UAE, and Israel gearing up to make their mark with strategies, time will tell which direction postwar politics will take.

As per Parley Policy, “Postwar policies must seek to advance the selling beyond a negative piece to one positive piece”

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