India’s road announcement couldn’t have come at a more opportune time for Nepal’s prime minister whose government was reeling under a deep political crisis. Faced with an imminent Indian threat, he was able to tame the hostile opposition which was left with no choice but to offer its full support to the government.
Kathmandu immediately deployed its police force in the area and shortly thereafter, issued its own political map incorporating the region in its territory.
It is obvious that an over-confident India did not anticipate such a strong Nepalese reaction against its road announcement. Besides, failure of India’s diplomatic establishment in assessing the Nepalese reaction was nothing short of breathtaking. Delhi was caught completely off-guard as prime minister Oli turned the map episode into a full-blown nationalist and anti-Indian agenda.
India has a habit of blaming others for its own inefficiencies. This time they blamed China for whipping up anti-India sentiment in Nepal. However, Indian accusations are not based on facts.
Emotions were running high in May when the border issue with India came to the fore.
The border issue between the two countries is decades old. Whether there was Chinese influence or not, Nepalese nationalists would always have reacted in the same manner against Indian aggression. This should have been obvious to Delhi when it issued its political map in November.
Indian accusations against China are not backed by irrefutable intelligence. Rather, it is an attempt at undermining genuine Nepalese concerns regarding the issue, and politicizing it at the expense of China. Over the past few years, Kathmandu has been repeatedly requesting India to solve the border issues through diplomatic channels. India has recognized the border dispute but always shied away from sitting down at a table with Nepal in order to sort things out.
Nepal’s internal politics is – at least in part – to be blamed for the recent escalation. The incumbent prime minister KP Sharma Oli has locked horns with ex-prime minister PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal or Prachanda whom he accuses of trying to remove him from the premiership with the help of his Indian friends. Oli is much closer to China than Parachanda, who is pro-Indian.
Oli and Parachnda belong to the same party that came into existence only two years ago when Nepal’s two biggest communist factions headed by each of them, unified with mutual consent. The new party was named Nepal Communist Party (NCP). Differences between the two leaders were visible right from the very beginning. The power sharing mechanism devised at the time of unification did not work out later, and both were regularly seen accusing each other of grabbing more power.
Emotions were running high in May when the border issue with India came to the fore. It was easy for Prime Minister Oli to whip up anti-Indian frenzy and use it to his own advantage. Nepal already holds a grudge against India for imposing a crippling trade blockade in 2015 which almost ruined the country.
Nepal is a landlocked country and depends mainly on imports from and through India. For years, India has played a very important role in its neighbour’s internal affairs. However, after the devastating blockade of 2015, Nepalese leaders began looking for alternatives in order to break free of Indian hegemony.
China regards Nepal as an important partner in its Belt and Road Initiative. It has already made huge investments in the latter’s infrastructure besides providing loans and aid. Wooing China became much easier with Oli at the helm owing to his past pro-Chinese credentials. Nepal now has an opportunity to enter Chinese markets and share its resources.
India, on the other hand, finds it difficult to let go of its younger brother. There are also dire security implications for India. Lipulekh Pass is the Himalayan route through which China can engineer another border intrusions. If that happens, it will be a replay of the humiliating Ladakh episode.
Delhi is in a dilemma. If it puts more pressure on Nepal, it will fuel anti-Indian sentiment and further embolden Prime Minister Oli. But if it ignores Nepal’s claims to the Himalayan territory, it will find this hard to sell to its own people who are reeking with rage after the Ladakh debacle.
It seems that Prime Minister Oli is the only one who stands to profit from the current escalation. His seat is secure for the time being and he may gain some long-term benefits for his country if he is able to maneuver his way through the rivalry between Nepal’s two giant neighbours. 
India and Nepal are close neighbours. In fact, they are deemed as the world’s closest neighbours by some notable Indian and Nepalese scholars. Deep cultural engagement between the people of India and Nepal dates back to independence. Citizen of both states enjoy freedom to live and work on either side of the border. Shared history and cultural heritage have further strengthened this bond over decades. 
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