Region
Economic Trajectory Dynamics
The corona surge left overflowing hospitals turning away the dying and crematorium smoke darkening the skies of Indian cities.
Bringing the masses out of poverty is indeed not only a sign of having a progressive vision but a classy execution plan by the leaders. Bringing millions of people out of poverty by keeping up a democratic governance structure and an intact parliamentary power shift, makes it more appreciable.
Though PM Imran Khan keeps praising China’s economic model that has pulled out millions of Chinese out of poverty, but he forgets that their governance model has no resemblance with ours. On the other hand, India liberalized its old-fashioned economy through a transformation that eventually pulled out about 300 million out of poverty, fueling one of the biggest wealth creations in history.
On July 24, 1991, Manmohan Singh’s budget speech is considered as an indication of commencement of economic reforms in India and now, on completing three decades of economic reforms, India has shown an exponential growth in economic terms. In the boom after liberalization, growth crossed 8%. Technology giants like Infosys were born and start-ups worth billions are now mushrooming in Bangalore. A new middle class emerged that watched Netflix, shopped online on Amazon, and dated without fear.
In the south, the Wistron factory won special economic benefits to assemble Apple iPhones. India became the world’s biggest supplier of generic medicines and the Serum Institute of India became the world’s biggest vaccine maker. An Indian exchange now handles the world’s highest number of derivatives contracts. But on her way to become an economic giant in South Asia, ‘Covid-19’ happened.
The corona surge left overflowing hospitals turning away the dying and crematorium smoke darkening the skies of Indian cities. The apparent economic progress of decades had been shattered in months. Millions of Indians, who were scratching their way out of poverty, now face dreadful job prospects and carry heavy debt loads to get themselves through the pandemic.
Devastation caused by a pandemic has unearthed the poor health care and its infrastructure is often neglected in the apparent economic boom after liberalization. India’s government spent less than 2% of GDP on healthcare before the pandemic. So, was the progress an eye wash for the world in general and Indian citizens in particular? We leave this question for some other time; instead let’s have a quick look at the Indian losses and let’s analyze whether the Indian economy would bounce back in the post-Covid world?
Azim Premji University,based in Bangalore, calculates that more than 200 million have gone back to earning less than the minimum wage of $5 a day. According to the Pew Research Institute, the Indian middle class, the engine of the consumer economy, shrank by 32 million in 2020. Modi had promised to turn India into a $5 trillion economy by 2025, whereas the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects India to grow by 6.9% in the next fiscal year that starts in April 2022. This would be lower than the 8% needed on a long term basis to reach Modi’s ambitious target and create jobs for the millions entering the work force. No doubt that after a stringent nationwide lockdown last year, India, once the fastest-growing major economy, faced its biggest-ever economic contraction, shrinking by more than 7%.
But it won’t be fair to charge Covid-19 alone for such economic degradation of India, rather it is important to understand that even before the pandemic, cracks in the Indian economy started to emerge. For instance, Modi’s 2016 cash ban, which roiled the informal sector and a hurriedly implemented new tax system. The K-shaped recovery for India, where the rich got richer and poor got poorer, is not only a moral issue, but can erode consumption and hurt India’s long-term growth prospects.
Moreover, multiple researchers have found that wealthier people in urban areas in India and from upper castes are taller, a sign of development favouring groups that were already advantaged. According to data from the International Labor Organization (ILO), the percentage of women joining the workforce fell from 30.3% in 1991 to about 21% in 2019: whereas 49% of the Indian population consists of women. Jim O’Neill, chairman of Chatham House in London, who coined the term BRICs to describe the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China, is cautious on India, largely because the government has not made many of the long-term structural changes he believes are needed for it to reach its full economic potential.
Let me reiterate that the Corona pandemic has indeed set back India hugely, but India was already on a growth downswing before Covid-19 happened. Therefore, in the post-covid world, the Indian economy will only bounce back and could come out of the doldrums, if and only if, India cleverly re-designs the way forward, restructures the intra and inter sector nexus, re-crafts the needed modalities, and realizes the newly emerging regional dynamics. If the government of India fails to do so, it will fail the Indians. ![]()

The writer is a columnist and broadcast journalist. He teaches at UVAS Business School in Lahore and can be reached at mali.hamza@yahoo.com


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