Dhaka
Bangla Spring
Will Bangladesh’s revolution go the way of the Arab Spring?
In an era of global democratic decline, last year’s student uprising in Bangladesh stands as a powerful example of re-asserting egalitarian values. The movement’s success in toppling Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian government highlights the transformative potential of grassroots activism and the critical role of political neutrality in driving systemic change. Bangladesh’s experience offers a blueprint for other societies resisting authoritarian rule, proving that broad-based, non-aligned movements can dismantle oppressive regimes and create pathways for lasting democratic reform.
As post-Hasina Bangladesh suffers uncertainty and some level of unrest, a few political observers have begun drawing parallels between Bangladesh’s revolution and the Arab Spring.
The Arab Spring was a wave of pro-democracy uprisings that swept the Middle East and North Africa in late 2010, toppling authoritarian regimes and inspiring political change. However, many of these revolutions ultimately failed to achieve lasting social transformation, plunging countries into civil war, authoritarian resurgence, political instability, and chaos.
However, an objective comparison between the two requires considering the causes, dynamics, and outcomes of the Arab Spring and comparing them with Bangladesh’s current political landscape.
The Arab Spring was driven by widespread frustration over corruption, lack of political freedom, high unemployment, and economic inequality. In some countries, mass protests led to the overthrow of entrenched dictators. Yet the absence of strong democratic institutions, internal power struggles, and external interference led to disappointing – and in some cases catastrophic - results.
Conversely, Bangladesh is a parliamentary democracy marred by intense political polarization, authoritarian tendencies, and rigged elections. Sheikh Hasina’s ruling party, the Awami League (AL), had been in power since 2009. The AL government was accused of cracking down on dissent, limiting press freedom, and weaponizing the judiciary. Meanwhile, the opposition—primarily the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)—struggled to mount a coherent challenge, often resorting to mere boycotts and street protests.
Bangladesh does share some similarities with the pre-Arab Spring environment, including discontent with governance, lack of transparency, and a highly frustrated youth. Yet, there are also some very important differences. First, Bangladesh has a very strong civil society and a tradition of electoral politics. Unlike Arab dictatorships, political change in Bangladesh does not necessarily require a revolution. Theoretically, it could be achieved through the ballot.
Additionally, Bangladesh has not seen the same level of violent repression or chaos that defined countries like Syria. Although political violence exists, it has not escalated into full-scale civil war. Bangladesh also benefits from a more homogeneous population, reducing the risk of sectarian strife, which was a major factor in the failure of the Arab Spring.
Since 1991, the alternating governance between the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has consistently prioritized partisan interests over effective governance. The duopoly perpetuated systemic failures while normalizing political violence and electoral fraud, gradually destroying public trust in the political process.
Following Sheik Hasina’s ouster, Bangladesh avoided widespread chaos or partisan power struggles.
That is why nonpartisanship is so crucial in Bangladesh’s current political arena. Political neutrality is essential for any movement seeking legitimacy and survival.
Undoubtedly, Bangladeshi students scored a historic triumph, but the revolution’s aftermath proved even more extraordinary. Following Hasina’s ouster, Bangladesh avoided widespread chaos or partisan power struggles. Political factions collectively stepped back to enable a neutral, non-partisan government to take shape.
Establishing the National Citizen Party (NCP) on February 28, 2025, signifies another important milestone. Born out of the revolutionary movement, the NCP seeks to fill the void left by the regime’s sudden collapse. Students lead the nascent party and embody a bold effort to reshape Bangladesh’s politics and solve long-standing socio-political issues.
Bangladesh’s student revolution is a testament to people’s power and the enduring strength of the masses against repression. It highlights how ordinary citizens, especially youth, can bring about meaningful change. Beyond its national impact, the movement demonstrates that non-partisan unity and inclusive participation are vital for reviving democracy.
But the danger persists. Lingering grievances risk fuelling widespread unrest. The youth, digitally connected and outspoken about unemployment and shrinking political space, could reach a breaking point. The country could again spiral into chaos, mirroring the destabilization seen in some Arab Spring nations.
Bangladesh should not follow the destructive arc of the Arab Spring. The country’s future hinges on its leaders’ willingness to restore public faith in the electoral process. The Arab Spring is a stark lesson—revolution is only the beginning, not the solution. True stability demands visionary leadership and institutional renewal. Whether Bangladesh can learn from history and forge a just and durable system remains to be seen.
The writer is a freelancer and an investment banker based in Karachi. He can be reached at syedatifshamim@hotmail.com
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