International
Fall of Damascus
As Syria navigates its transitional phase post-Assad, the international community must prioritize the hopes and aspirations of its people.
The 12 days of Operation Deterrence of Aggression, an operation launched by a coalition of Syrian opposition groups and led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), put an end to the Assad dynasty in Syria. This chapter will go down in history as a turning point for Syria – for better or worse, that is yet to unfold.
The 24-year rule of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad came to an end on December 8, 2024, with Syrians across the globe celebrating the fall of the despot. While Syrians have reason to celebrate, the global power corridors must exercise caution in celebrating the loss of Russia and Iran in Syria, as the Middle East is dotted with chapters of removal of strongmen that have led to chaos. For a post-Assad Syria, stability is key, and that depends on multilateral diplomacy by the U.S. with key regional stakeholders, including Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Israel. The outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration need to work with international partners to help Syrians rebuild their war-torn country and ensure that the diverse fabric of Syrian society is well-heard in shaping the future of their country and not left divided.
To understand whether the regime change in Syria will have a devastating impact on the Middle East and the world, SouthAsia Magazine spoke to Dr Kenneth Holland, the Chief of Party of the USAID higher education project in Pakistan — Higher Education System Strengthening Activity (HESSA) and a Political Scientist from the University of Chicago (UChicago).
Speaking of the immediate geopolitical ramifications of the Assad regime’s collapse on Middle Eastern alliances and power structures, Dr Holland underscores the weakening of Russia and Iran and the strengthening of the United States and the European Union. Assad’s overthrow struck a significant blow to Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ which once gave it unprecedented strategic depth, with the establishment of the “Shia Crescent.”
A blow to Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Geopolitical Monitor’s article on ‘Understanding the ‘Shiite Crescent’ as Iranian Grand Strategy’ elaborates on the corridor that is an ‘interconnectedness of the Shiite communities in the Greater Middle East would generate a contiguous sphere of influence that goes from the Mediterranean coast of Lebanon to the westernmost corners of Pakistan and Afghanistan… the so-called Shiite Crescent involves a quest for Lebensraum through a constellation of proxies and satellites directed by Tehran.’
When asked about how might the power vacuum in Syria influence the strategic positions of neighbouring countries, particularly Israel, Turkey, and Iran, Dr Holland stated, “Turkey will seek to benefit from the collapse of the Assad regime by occupying more Syrian territory near the pro-American Kurds. Israel will take the opportunity to degrade Syria’s offensive military capability, remembering the wars that Israel has fought with pro-Russian Syrian regimes in the past. Iran will strengthen its relationship with Hezbollah and Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.”
With the overthrowing of the Assad regime in Syria and the opening of a new front in the Middle East, will it draw attention away from the ongoing genocide in Gaza? Dr Holland states, “When Damascus fell to the rebels, and Assad left the country for Russia, the world’s attention shifted from Gaza to Syria. It will be difficult to refocus attention on the plight of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.”
Keeping in check the role international organizations and major power players play in facilitating Syria’s transition to a stable governance structure post-Assad, Dr Holland, the Political Scientist from UChicago, mentions that “It is essential for international organizations to use a carrot-and-stick approach to HTS. The carrot is the possible lifting of sanctions and a steady supply of humanitarian assistance. The stick is the U.S. strengthening of the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the east and Maghawir al-Thawra in the south, plus the enforcement of existing sanctions, including asset freezes, travel bans, arms embargo, trade restrictions, financial sanctions, and sectoral sanctions, including energy, construction, and transportation. Israel and Turkey, which occupy portions of Syrian territory, can also offer carrots and sticks, including withdrawal from or extension into Syrian territory.”
Post-Assad Syria – altering the global powers’ strategic calculus?
Will a post-Assad Syria alter the strategic calculus of global powers, including the United States and Russia, in the Middle East? “Under President Donald Trump, the United States is not likely to do more than continue to contain the Islamic State (ISIS) so that it does not return as a threat to Iraq.” Speaking of the Russian defeat, Dr Holland mentions, “Russia has been humiliated. It will have difficulty in finding another suitable ally in the Middle East. It will strengthen its military presence in Iran and Libya.”
The insurgency against Assad was inspired by the Arab Spring in 2011, which served as a catalyst for Syria’s long-lasting and devastating civil war.
On the potential implications of Syria’s political transition on the humanitarian crises in the region, including refugee flows and human rights concerns, Dr Holland states, “Syrian refugees are flowing in large numbers back to Syria, alleviating refugee pressure in neighbouring countries, especially Turkey and Europe. Human rights activists are waiting to see how the new regime treats minorities and those who disagree with their policies. The possible lifting of sanctions by the West may be a sufficient quid pro quo for HTS and its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to allow some civil liberties and civil rights, including opportunities in education and work for girls and women.”
Commenting on the fall of Assad significantly impacting the operational capabilities and regional influence of non-state actors such as Hezbollah and Hamas, Dr Holland states, “Iran was supplying Hezbollah through Syria. It will now be more difficult for Iran to provide resources to Hezbollah, which in turn will be hampered in assisting Hamas. Iran will continue to provide aid to Hamas using routes passing through Sudan, the Sinai Peninsula, and other clandestine channels.”
Lessons from the Syrian experience
For an unpopular regime to remain in power, it needs international assistance, shares Dr. Holland. Speaking of the Syrian experience regarding the effectiveness of international interventions in regime change and nation-building efforts, Dr Holland, the Chief of Party of the USAID-HESSA, states, “Assad became too dependent on Russia and Iran to repress the popular uprising. When Ukraine and Israel weakened Russia and Iran militarily, Turkey was able to provide sufficient assistance to HTS, which had proven its ability to administer Idlib to enable the rebel group to overpower the Syrian army. Assad’s Syria was a weak state, incapable of even paying its soldiers.”
Discourse on authoritarianism and democratization in the Arab world
The insurgency against Assad was inspired by the Arab Spring in 2011, which served as a catalyst for Syria’s long-lasting and devastating civil war. “The difficulty is that Sunni religious extremism, in the form of HTS, captured the popular anger towards the Assad regime. HTS is fundamentally an illiberal and anti-democratic organization. HTS was formed in 2017 as an affiliate of Al-Qaeda. Although the group later declared independence from Al-Qaeda, its leadership and principles remain rooted in jihadist principles. It rejects secularism, democracy, human rights, and pluralism,” says Dr Holland.
Potential economic impacts in the Middle East
With the instability in Syria, Dr Holland highlights the adverse economic effects that could impact the Middle East, particularly concerning energy markets and reconstruction efforts. “The instability in Syria will have negative economic effects. Syria’s oil and gas production will continue to be severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict. Instability in Syria affects the operation of pipelines and transportation routes. Reconstruction costs in Syria are estimated to exceed $250 billion. International donors will be reluctant to fund reconstruction as long as there is political instability.”
As Syria navigates its transitional phase, the international community must prioritize the hopes and aspirations of its people. With a power vacuum and chaos unfolding amid competing armed factions, proactive planning for a post-Ba’athist Syria is crucial. This effort is essential to steer the nation toward recovery and prevent it from becoming a haven for extremists and a global hub of terror once again.
Reflecting on the words of Hannah Arendt, the renowned German-born American political scientist and philosopher, “Revolutions are the only political events which confront us directly and inevitably with the problem of beginning.” Let Syria’s revolution mark the dawn of a new chapter filled with hope and joy for its people.
The writer is a communications professional and a UN Volunteer. She can be reached at mariaamkahn@gmail.com
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