International

Fall of Damascus

As Syria navigates its transitional phase post-Assad, the international community must prioritize the hopes and aspirations of its people.

By Mariam Khan | January 2025


The 12 days of Operation Deterrence of Aggression, an operation launched by a coalition of Syrian opposition groups and led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), put an end to the Assad dynasty in Syria. This chapter will go down in history as a turning point for Syria – for better or worse, that is yet to unfold.

The 24-year rule of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad came to an end on December 8, 2024, with Syrians across the globe celebrating the fall of the despot. While Syrians have reason to celebrate, the global power corridors must exercise caution in celebrating the loss of Russia and Iran in Syria, as the Middle East is dotted with chapters of removal of strongmen that have led to chaos. For a post-Assad Syria, stability is key, and that depends on multilateral diplomacy by the U.S. with key regional stakeholders, including Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Israel. The outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration need to work with international partners to help Syrians rebuild their war-torn country and ensure that the diverse fabric of Syrian society is well-heard in shaping the future of their country and not left divided.

To understand whether the regime change in Syria will have a devastating impact on the Middle East and the world, SouthAsia Magazine spoke to Dr Kenneth Holland, the Chief of Party of the USAID higher education project in Pakistan — Higher Education System Strengthening Activity (HESSA) and a Political Scientist from the University of Chicago (UChicago).

Speaking of the immediate geopolitical ramifications of the Assad regime’s collapse on Middle Eastern alliances and power structures, Dr Holland underscores the weakening of Russia and Iran and the strengthening of the United States and the European Union. Assad’s overthrow struck a significant blow to Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ which once gave it unprecedented strategic depth, with the establishment of the “Shia Crescent.”

A blow to Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Geopolitical Monitor’s article on ‘Understanding the ‘Shiite Crescent’ as Iranian Grand Strategy’ elaborates on the corridor that is an ‘interconnectedness of the Shiite communities in the Greater Middle East would generate a contiguous sphere of influence that goes from the Mediterranean coast of Lebanon to the westernmost corners of Pakistan and Afghanistan… the so-called Shiite Crescent involves a quest for Lebensraum through a constellation of proxies and satellites directed by Tehran.’

When asked about how might the power vacuum in Syria influence the strategic positions of neighbouring countries, particularly Israel, Turkey, and Iran, Dr Holland stated, “Turkey will seek to benefit from the collapse of the Assad regime by occupying more Syrian territory near the pro-American Kurds. Israel will take the opportunity to degrade Syria’s offensive military capability, remembering the wars that Israel has fought with pro-Russian Syrian regimes in the past. Iran will strengthen its relationship with Hezbollah and Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.”

With the overthrowing of the Assad regime in Syria and the opening of a new front in the Middle East, will it draw attention away from the ongoing genocide in Gaza? Dr Holland states, “When Damascus fell to the rebels, and Assad left the country for Russia, the world’s attention shifted from Gaza to Syria. It will be difficult to refocus attention on the plight of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.”

Read More