Cover Story
Uphill Task
If the Awami League has been marginalized after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina from power, it doesn’t mean that India’s role and influence in Bangladesh is over.
Following the regime change in Bangladesh in August 2024, the post-Hasina period in the country marked a relative transformation in Pakistan-Bangladesh ties. When Sheikh Hasina’s regime was toppled after months of violent student movement, the interim set-up led by Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus unleashed a process of mending fences in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations as the two countries embarked on a gradual normalization of relations. The meeting between the Prime Minister of Pakistan and the Bangladeshi Chief Adviser on December 19 on the sidelines of the D-8 summit held in Cairo further accentuated hope for expediting the Bangladesh-Pakistan normalization process. The two sides examined measures to augment trade, commercial, travel, cultural, and people-to-people interaction between Bangladesh and Pakistan in the coming times.
Why is mending fences in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations still an uphill task? Despite 53 years of separation, why can the two countries not follow a visionary roadmap to help overcome the hangover of the past and move forward? Despite Islamabad’s positive approach, why is the Yunus regime cautious about resuming direct flights and easing visa issuance? Why is trade between Pakistan and Bangladesh not picking up faster, and why is the joint commission of the two countries established during President Pervez Musharraf’s visit to Dhaka in July 2002 almost non-functional?
The dawn of 2025 may augur well for mending fences in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations. Still, it all depends on the domestic dynamics of Dhaka, how the Yunus regime can grapple with the legitimacy issue, India’s influence in subverting the Pakistan-Bangladesh normalization process, and the role of the Awami League in regaining power.
According to the reports, the first direct maritime link between Pakistan and Bangladesh was established in November 2024 “when the Panama-flagged vessel Yuan Xiang Fa Zhan arrived at Chittagong Port from Karachi. The vessel carried goods from Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates, including raw materials for Bangladesh’s garment industry and essential foodstuffs. The direct shipping route between the two countries has been described as a “major step” towards enhancing regional trade. It has the potential to save both time and money and create new opportunities for businesses on both sides”. Furthermore, in 2024, exports from Pakistan to Bangladesh amounted to 66 million dollars, while imports from Bangladesh stood at 56.55 million dollars, reflecting a trade balance favoring Islamabad. Exports to Bangladesh consist of cotton fabrics, fruits, chemicals, and cement, whereas imports from Bangladesh are jute, medicines, and tea.
The Pakistan High Commissioner to Dhaka, Syed Ahmed Maroof, and his predecessor, Imran Ahmed Siddiqui, played a pivotal role in mending fences in relations with Bangladesh. Launching maritime trade between Karachi and Chittagong will reduce item costs, which would be a win-win situation for the two countries. If the two sides express substantial political will and determination in the future, 12 potential areas of cooperation between Pakistan and Bangladesh can be identified.
1. Enhancing maritime trade to augment the level of commercial activities.
2. Reactivating joint commission.
3. Revitalizing educational ties.
4. Augmenting cultural cooperation.
5. Direct air links.
6. Connectivity in information technology.
7. Cooperation to combat extremism and terrorism.
8. Easing of Visa issuance, preferably on arrival visa.
9. Promoting youth links.
10. Tourism.
11. Joint cooperation in the banking sector.
12. Declaring Karachi and Chittagong and Lahore and Dhaka as sister cities.
One can explore more areas of cooperation focusing on win-win situations provided the two countries get over the hangover of the past and move forward to unleash reconciliation and normalization. Since the regime change in Dhaka and Pakistan’s somewhat proactive approach to boosting ties with Bangladesh, one can observe signs of positivity that will take some time to mature.
The challenge of mending fences in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations depends on three major requirements. First, the implementation of steps agreed during the then President Pervez Musharraf’s visit to Dhaka in July 2002. On that occasion, the two countries signed trade and cultural agreements, whereas Dhaka called for duty-free access to its products to Pakistan. More than 22 years have passed since a bilateral visit from the Pakistani head of state to Dhaka took place. In contrast, no Bangladesh head of government or state paid a bilateral visit to Islamabad in the last several decades. It is time for the two sides to take concrete steps to revitalize the joint commission and resume the process of bilateral visits at the highest level.
Since the regime change in Dhaka and Pakistan’s somewhat proactive approach to boosting ties with Bangladesh, one can observe signs of positivity that will take some time to mature.
Why the Yunus regime is not expediting the mending of fences in its relations with Pakistan is not difficult to gauge. The legitimacy issue of caretaker adviser Dr. Mohammad Yunus is a significant reason for its inability to reciprocate gestures from Pakistan adequately. Till the time situation in Bangladesh stabilizes, it will be difficult for Dhaka to be fast in normalizing relations with Pakistan. Second, India’s negative approach to mending fences in Pakistan-Bangladesh ties cannot be overlooked because, since the beginning, New Delhi has been hostile to steps that tend to normalize Dhaka-Islamabad ties. The Indian media raised a hue and cry when, in November, direct shipping links between the ports of Karachi and Chittagong were re-established, and a Pakistani cargo ship unloaded goods in the Bangladeshi seaport. Indian media also took a hostile view of reports about renewed defense cooperation between Pakistan and Bangladesh. When the death anniversary of Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah took place in Dhaka in September 2024, it was given a negative color by the Indian media.
If the Awami League has been marginalized after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina from power, it doesn’t mean that India’s role and influence in Bangladesh is over. India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) is still active in Bangladesh, instigating the Hindu minority to destabilize the Yunus regime. Once the majority of people of Bangladesh turn against India and its efforts to hurt relations with Pakistan, one can expect New Delhi to amend its hostility for mending the fences between Dhaka and Islamabad. After a long time, Bangladesh is asserting its sovereignty and denying India a role detrimental to its interests. Certainly, the more the Yunus regime pursues an aggressive approach vis-à-vis India, the better space for Pakistan and China will be.
Third, Pakistan and Bangladesh should move forward instead of getting bogged down in past polemics. This would require Pakistan to clearly express its regrets about the excessive use of force conducted during the military operation from March 1971 to December 1971. More than 53 years have passed since East Pakistan became Bangladesh, and it is high time that the sad chapter of 1971 is closed for good so that the present and future generations of the two countries do not carry the baggage of the past. The generation that existed in 1971 in the two countries is already phasing out and will not be around after some time. Henceforth, it is the younger generation of Pakistan and Bangladesh whose stakes for cordial and regular ties are high and critical.
If direct air links and sustained maritime trade occur between Pakistan and Bangladesh, one can expect a paradigm shift in their travel and trade ties. Promoting people-to-people interaction, particularly among younger generations of the two countries, will be another milestone in the mending fences. Additionally, if Pakistan can deal with its hard pressing issues of political instability, economic predicament, and issues of governance, it will have a positive impact on strengthening Bangladesh-Pakistan ties in the years to come. It is expected that given the positive approach Dhaka and Islamabad pursued since the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August last year, one can expect vibrancy in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations during 2025.
The writer is Meritorious Professor of International Relations and former Dean Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Karachi. He can be reached at moonis.ahmar59@gmail.com
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Perspective summary! And how much better would the whole subcontinent be if Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Nepal (or all the original SAARC nations) could seriously come to understand each other and progressively increase peaceful collaboration!