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Regaining Relevance
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Islamabad provides Pakistan with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to showcase its relevance regionally and globally.
The mesmerising beauty of the colourful October fall in the scenic city of Islamabad is looking forward to hosting the summit of heads of government (Prime Ministers) of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) from October 15 to 16. The SCO is a political, economic, and security alliance founded in 2001 in Shanghai, China. Originally established by China, Russia, and several Central Asian countries, the SCO has expanded to include India and Pakistan as full members since 2017. Over its years of operation, the SCO has focused on fostering regional stability, combating terrorism, and promoting economic collaboration among member states.
The SCO should be looked through the lens that it belongs to a much bigger grouping under the Global Security Initiatives (GSI), unfolded by Chinese President Xi to establish a new great power relationship to counterbalance the U.S. dominance, notably in Asia. Disappointed with the U.S. pullback on China’s initiatives and global outreach, President Xi aligned with Russia in February 2022 and declared “no limits friendship with Russia.” Russia is now an integral part of President Xi’s initiatives for global outreach in the areas of economy, diplomacy, security, and peace.
The GSI emphasises Asia as an anchor for world peace, a powerhouse for global growth, and a new pacesetter for international cooperation. The GSI calls upon Indo-Pacific countries to cooperate and leverage the role of regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the economic grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), the China-Central Asia Summit, and mechanisms of East Asian cooperation. The GSI aims to realize the vision of Asian nations, handling Asia’s security affairs without outside interference, notably Western influence. Asian security concepts significantly differ from those of other regional economic collaborations, such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). The GSI envisions extending to other parts of the world, including Africa, the Caribbean, and Latin America, and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East.
On the surface, the GSI does not pose an immediate threat to the U.S. and its allies and partners, but the West views its underlying intention with suspicion. Many countries that are part of the GSI and also have their interests aligned with the West are cautious about putting their full weight behind the GSI. Their balancing act between the GSI and the West is paying off.
Like previous SCO summits, the 24th Summit of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (CHS-SCO), held in Astana on 3-4 July 2024, concluded with the adoption of Strategic Documents covering security, trade, energy, finance, and information security. Noteworthy among these were the Astana Declaration 2024, the Energy Cooperation Development Strategy until 2030, the SCO Development Strategy until 2035, the Program for Cooperation in Countering Terrorism, Extremism and Separatism for 2025-2027, and the SCO Anti-Drug Strategy for 2024-2029. The declarations, at best, can be termed as long-term strategic vision. The SCO October 15-16 summit in Islamabad is expected to be no different - concluding on strategic dialogues and declarations. It’s about time SCO extends itself beyond dialogue and declarations with something tangible on the ground.
The vision of the SCO, understandably, is to achieve something close to the vision of the European Union in terms of cross-border trade and security, men and material resource sharing, seamless connectivity, social and cultural cohesion and all that which could bring together the countries under the SCO platform of shared prosperity. It is, however, understandable that SCO cannot reach the high bar set by the EU on account of the historical background of SCO member states, their internal social, economic and political challenges, their regulatory framework and imbalances in their systems and processes and lack of commitment to the SCO cause by some who have compulsions and desire to balance their acts with the demands of the West.
The presence of India and Pakistan in the SCO and their positivity, overriding their bilateral conflicts, could make all the difference to the SCO’s aspirations and objectives. Tragically, the India-Pakistan rivalry has compromised the objectives and aspirations of the SCO and its member states. India-Pakistan rivalry effectively paralyzed the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and reduced it to a largely symbolic entity. The rivalry also disappointed the other SAARC states, namely Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan.
The SAARC precedent raises concerns for the SCO, where the same tensions could potentially disrupt the organisation. However, the SCO’s stronger foundation, led by global powers like China and Russia, has no place for intolerance on that account. President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin consider such projects essential for their global ambitions and outreach. “Before joining the grouping in 2017, India and Pakistan committed not to bring into the SCO family any bilateral contradictions and differences as the SCO is not dealing with settling disputable bilateral issues, whether they are related to border, water or other issues in relations between certain member states,” the SCO’s then-Secretary-General Vladimir Norov told the media. This rebuke does not go well for Pakistan or India, which aspires to be the world power in the next three years, demanding a magnanimous approach.
The presence of India and Pakistan in the SCO and their positivity, overriding their bilateral conflicts, could make all the difference to the SCO’s aspirations and objectives.
Notwithstanding their commitments, the two neighbors’ emotions can spike at the slightest provocation. A spat between India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Bilawal Bhutto over the Kashmir issue and “terrorism” dominated media headlines around the conclave when India hosted the SCO foreign Ministers summit in July 2023 at Delhi. Coinciding with Pakistan’s invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the SCO October Summit, S. Jaishankar declared, at an event in Delhi that the “era of uninterrupted dialogue” with Pakistan was over” and that “Actions have consequences, and as far as Jammu and Kashmir is concerned, Article 370 is done [away with]. The issue now is what kind of relationship we can contemplate with Pakistan. We are not passive; whether events take a positive or negative direction, we will react,” Jaishankar said. These remarks were uncalled for, and better brinkmanship should have been demonstrated at this juncture. Whatever India decides about the presence of its Prime Minister at the Islamabad Summit, its rivalry with Pakistan is likely to shadow the summit. However, both countries have largely avoided taking steps that derail the grouping’s priorities.
South Asia’s economic outlook is expected to remain strong, outperforming other regions. The GDP is projected to grow by 5.8 per cent in 2024 and 5.7 per cent in 2025, the United Nations says in its latest report. The high point of the SCO could be the seamless connectivity between the Central and South Asian states and beyond to the Asian-Pacific States. The terrain of Pakistan and India provides that connectivity. Nevertheless, the rivalry prompted India to instead have its footprint in Central Asia through a cumbersome and expensive land and sea route via the Chabahar Port in Iran. In turn, it denies the Central Asian states land access to South Asia, the land of opportunities.
For Pakistan, the SCO October 15-16 summit means a lot as it would mark the country’s biggest gathering of top world leaders since a conclave of developing nations in 2012. Pakistan, being an immediate neighbour of Afghanistan and a historical U.S. ally, from time to time, became a frontline state for the U.S. and its allies during decades of turmoil and wars in Afghanistan. With the withdrawal of the U.S. forces, the effective entrenchment of the Afghanistan government in its domestic affairs, and equally effective outreach in its foreign affairs, the relevance and role of Pakistan as a front-line state from all quarters has ended. Pakistan’s role needs to be redefined and relevance re-established as a country to reckon with. It needs to showcase the value addition it could offer to the world in terms of economic excellence and global diplomacy. Pakistan has some cards in its hand to capitalize on. It needs to work on the rest diligently.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), linking the Central Asian states with China and the Gwadar port—which provides the shortest sea route to Gulf states and the Middle East—is something to project and capitalize upon. Sharing resources in the energy sector, mines and minerals, and agriculture is something to work on.
The SCO in Islamabad provides a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Pakistan to showcase its relevance, regionally and globally. Everything has to be diligently and professionally worked upon - Islamabad ambiance, quality and competence of human resources planning, managing and conducting the events, result-oriented discussions and declarations, and more of the same.
The writer is the former president of the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
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