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All Quiet On the Indian Front

It is high time to question why India is so persistent in rejecting resuming dialogue with Pakistan.

By Ambassador Sanaullah | October 2024

Pakistan has been at a crossroads for the most time in its 77 years of existence. While it is true that it mostly encountered crises that derailed progress and development due to its internal bad governance, the exogenous factors, especially India’s continued hostile and bullying attitude, undeniably tried to destroy any opportunity Pakistan had created for its development. There has never been a case in which India did not behave as a regional hegemon in design and did not act against neighbours. Indian author and political commentator Ramachandra Guha candidly mentioned this intractable Indian attitude towards its neighbours recently in a TV program with Karen Thapar. On the contrary, Pakistan also did not miss any opportunity where it could challenge Indian hegemonic policies. Naturally, bilateral relations suffered conflicts, wars, stalemates, and continued blame games like cross-border terrorism.

However, it was the first time after the 1971 war that diplomatic relations between these two countries turned so bad for such a long time that today, no significant leadership contact exists between them. It is high time to question why India is so persistent in rejecting resuming dialogue with Pakistan. After the 1971 war, diplomatic ties were fully restored within four years. Why now is India not ready to talk or even consider talking to Pakistan?

Indian leadership publicly claims that Pakistan has become “irrelevant” to their good neighbour policy. It suspended all substantive contact with Pakistan, especially since 2016, and chose to demonize the country by harping on the mantra of cross-border terrorism. There is no denying that Pakistan downgraded diplomatic relations in 2019 when the Indian government unilaterally violated the UN resolutions on Jammu & Kashmir, revoking its special autonomy granted in the Indian constitution.

On 30th August 2024, during an interview, Minister Jaishankar again described Pakistan as increasingly “irrelevant” to India’s strategic calculations. It is the offshoot of his statement from June 2019 during his first press conference as India’s External Affairs Minister. He then stated that “talks and terror cannot go together,” setting the tone for India’s approach under Jaishankar’s tenure. He hammered the same theme in October 2019 while delivering a lecture at the Vivekananda International Foundation in New Delhi, “the-era-of-uninterrupted-uninterruptible-dialogue-is-over.” This was a direct reference to the previous diplomatic policy framework aimed at sustained engagement with Pakistan, irrespective of setbacks.

Jaishankar came back to the same theme in August 2020, during a virtual address, when he said India’s stance on terrorism was “non-negotiable” and that the “days of a conciliatory approach, overlooking acts of terror for the sake of dialogue, are over.” By saying so, he articulated his Prime Minister’s vision, who on August 15, 2019, in his Independence Day speech, reiterated India’s stance on cross-border terrorism, stating that India had shown the world that it could not only fight terrorism on its soil but also take decisive action across borders if necessary and his UN General Assembly address (September 2021), emphasizing that countries supporting terrorism must be held accountable. Although he did not explicitly mention Pakistan, the implication was evident as India has consistently raised the issue of Pakistan’s alleged cross-border terrorism at various United Nations (UN) forums over the years, particularly in the UN General Assembly (UNGA), the UN Security Council (UNSC), and through official communications.


Jaishankar believes that India’s current dealings with Pakistan can be maintained. On appointment as minister for the second term, he separated Pakistan from other neighbours and suggested a cautious and reactive approach, emphasizing cross-border terrorism. His position signals a departure from the previous policy of engaging in continuous dialogue with Pakistan, regardless of the ongoing conflicts. It is a significant shift that underscores India’s growing assertiveness and its willingness to take a tougher stance in response to Pakistan’s policy regarding the Kashmir dispute.

PM Modi and his team, led by Jaishankar and Amit Shah, are not prepared to accept that the Kashmir question is relevant to relations with Pakistan.

I believe Jaishankar’s statements reflect India’s strategic reorientation, where Pakistan is increasingly seen as a peripheral player rather than a central concern in India’s broader geopolitical strategy. The declaration that the ‘era of uninterrupted and uninterruptible’ dialogue is over marks a significant departure from the previous Indian framework of continuous engagement with Pakistan despite ongoing conflicts. This rhetoric will heavily influence any future dialogue with Pakistan.

For Pakistan, reviewing its foreign policy in response to these developments is an option but a painful process, as the review process could be interpreted as conceding to India’s demands without reciprocal concessions. There have been hints of interest from some sections of Pakistan’s civilian leaders, especially Nawaz Sharif and his party, in renewing pragmatic engagement with India. Former Army Chief Qamar Jawed Bajwa also signaled flexibility in engaging Indians by talking about low-hanging fruits.

It is generally believed that Pakistan has done better to show its renewed interest in resuming trade and substantive contact at the leadership level. However, PM Modi and his team, led by Jaishankar and Amit Shah, are not prepared to accept that the Kashmir question is any more relevant to relations with Pakistan. For them, the focus should be on cross-border terrorism and recovering the part of Kashmir lost to Pakistan in 1947. They are encouraged by the lower threat of militancy, “more or less under control.” Apparently, in post-August 2019 Kashmir, “there are no strikes, shutdowns, or stone-pelting demonstrations,” and militant attacks have fallen in the valley. They assume that the situation in Kashmir will remain under control and that the boil in the Jammu region will pass.

Much depends on the outcome of the state assembly elections, which will be held from September 18 to Oct 1, 2024. The political parties and erstwhile adversaries of local elections have displayed their readiness to contest as independents, marking a shift in the political landscape of Kashmir. The trend enhances the BJP leadership assumption that it could handle J&K without undoing the 2019 Kashmir package. In case of peaceful elections where the BJP is not part of the government, PM Modi will feel vindicated that it has completed his ‘task’ and fully taken the Kashmir dispute off the table in any future India-Pakistan talks. He may then relent a bit and, at some point, give Pakistan a face-saving to clear the way for talks with India. The saving formula will not mean undoing the August 2019 declaration.

Unless a wide-scale militancy springs up, it will be difficult to rekindle international attention and an outcry for partial acceptance of the demands of the local population. Under the current scenario, the prospects for high-level diplomatic engagement between India and Pakistan remain bleak. PM Modi is all set to ignore Pakistan’s invitation to attend the SCO summit in Islamabad this month. Even if he comes or the talks at some level take place elsewhere, benefits will be limited for Pakistan and not worth the political cost that Shahbaz Sharif’s coalition government can sustain.

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