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Marriage of Inconvenience

Sri Lanka’s political arena is characterized by a complicated web of alliances, splits, and uncertainties as the country prepares for the 2024 presidential elections.

By Daniyal Talat | March 2024


As poll fever sweeps Sri Lanka, the primary question, according to the country’s discredited political class, is who or which party or alliance will win power in the presidential and parliamentary elections, which are expected to take place this year. In general, the political players and forces in Southern Sri Lanka are primarily concerned with self-interest and power accumulation. These causes mainly drive the present surge in political involvement in the South.

However, the South should be more concerned with current, and to a large degree, historical changes in Tamil politics. To be more specific, political forces and personalities in the South would be acting with more incredible foresight if they weighed the pros and cons of electing Jaffna district parliamentarian Sivagnanam Shritharan, a Tamil nationalist, to the position of head of the Illankai Thamil Arasuk Katchi (ITAK), or Federal Party, by a significant margin over his closest competitor.

The above election does not necessarily portend a significant revival of separatist sentiment in the North-East. Still, it should be viewed as symptomatic of the ongoing alienation that a significant North-East population feels about the country’s political center. Simply put, the North-East’s most pressing requirements are not being met.

More particularly, the North-East people have no cause to be satisfied with their current situation, even though the anti-LTTE battle has been over for an extended period. But what can be expected of national administrations unwilling to fully execute the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution? Instead, administrations have made promises to the people of the North-East only to break them.

As a result, central governments, intentionally or unintentionally, are creating causes for dissatisfaction among some segments of the Tamil political community. From this, it’s only a short step to dissatisfaction and insurrection, as the history of the Tamil crisis demonstrates. It is up to the centre to guarantee that Sri Lanka does not repeat that disastrous cycle. Thus, Shritharan’s election should be viewed as a ‘wake-up’ call, particularly by the administration. It must act now to bring genuine growth to the North-East, or the region’s identity politics may spiral out of control.

Sri Lanka’s 30-year struggle should have made it clear that a lack of retributive justice leads to the emergence of identity politics and secession. Sri Lanka’s political arena is characterized by a complicated web of alliances, splits, and uncertainties as the country prepares for the 2024 presidential elections. The ruling party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), led by the Rajapaksa brothers, is at the core of this political upheaval, facing severe hurdles in the face of considerable popular discontent. Despite its vulnerable situation, the SLPP has formed an odd coalition with its former bitter foe, the United National Party (UNP), led by Ranil Wickremesinghe. This coalition was created out of necessity rather than shared philosophy and supplied the administration with the legislative backing required to enact legislation.


However, fundamental disagreements between the two parties on subjects ranging from economic policy to ethnic reconciliation attempts have emerged, indicating potential coalition cracks. Fractures are visible within the SLPP, with groups uniting either to support or oppose the UNP cooperation. The party’s grasp on nationalist feeling, previously robust, has diminished, with economic concerns gaining primacy among voters. This rift inside the SLPP substantially threatens its election prospects, particularly as opposition parties capitalize on discontent with the establishment and government policies.

More particularly, the North-East people have no cause to be satisfied with their current situation, even though the anti-LTTE battle has been over for an extended period.

The growth of opposition groups like the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and Samagi Jana Balawegaya highlights Sri Lanka’s evolving political scene. These parties have gained popularity by capitalizing on public anger, notably with the SLPP’s handling of problems like the ban on chemical fertilizers and economic changes that benefit a select few. Their growing popularity among the younger population demonstrates how vital this group will be in determining the outcome of the elections. Against this backdrop of uncertainty and political intrigue, the identity of the SLPP’s presidential candidate remains unknown, stoking conjecture and instability.

The lack of a clear candidate adds uncertainty to an already turbulent political scene. As coalitions fluctuate and evolve, it becomes clear that political marriages of convenience are the rule rather than the exception in Sri Lankan politics. While suiting their immediate interests, the SLPP’s alliance with the UNP is considered temporary, with its breakup looming on the horizon.

In conclusion, Sri Lanka’s political environment is marked by unpredictability, fragmentation, and shifting alliances. As the country prepares for the next presidential elections, the outcome is unknown, with the possibility of dramatic changes in government leadership and policy direction. Amidst these problems, one thing is clear: the SLPP’s partnership with the UNP is coming to an end, and the future of Sri Lankan politics is at stake.

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