Million-dollar Question

The elusive General Elections 2024 have, at last, been held. In spite of all efforts by the powers that be, it seems their efforts have not succeeded, as despite Imran Khan’s incarceration and attempt to keep the PTI out of the electoral race, the party has managed to show its resilience by remaining prominent and capturing sizable votes.

However, the picture presented in the post-election scenario is most disturbing, considering the poor state of Pakistan’s economy and its reducing clout in world affairs. The National Assembly that will eventually be called, regardless of who holds the position of Prime Minister, will remain a disparate group and will be virtually of the same shape as it was when the no-confidence motion was passed in April 2022, with the PDM, consisting of the PML (N), PPP, MQM and the JUI (F) on the treasury side and PTI choosing not to sit in the Opposition. Only if the PTI had decided to sit on the opposition benches would the General Elections 2024 have been much more productive.

Besides, ironically, the only reason the PTI did not sit on the opposition benches was because it wanted to settle scores with the Establishment for maneuvering to remove the PTI. But the fact that we are in the same position after the elections after one and a half years shows that the Establishment is still in the driving seat and will play a significant role in any future political setup.

This is because the elections are likely to throw up a government whenever it is formed, which, though claiming legitimacy, will consist of parties, none of which will command a simple majority to enable them to form a government on their own. Consequently, we have been set up for a hybrid regime where the Establishment will play a pivotal role. Nevertheless, it is a matter of satisfaction that the Establishment has refrained from interfering directly, as in earlier days when the politicians brought in the non-elected forces because of their contumacy.

Considering that in the changed scenario in the South Asian region, the growing strength of India and weakening of Pakistan’s economy has made it incumbent for us to rethink our relationship with India, the continued influence of the Establishment and a weak federal government being ushered in will not permit the evolution of a government where the Establishment could take a back seat and reconcile to its budget being slashed, thereby resulting in our resources being employed for improving living standards of our people rather than concentrate on preserving our security even when we are all aware that India in its present position will never be inclined to pose any direct threat to Pakistan. This is so because India’s continued confrontation with Pakistan will now be seen as a contest between David and Goliath rather than between two equals, tarnishing its image as a major power India is presently keen on cultivating.

Under the given circumstances, this was perhaps the best time for Pakistan to break out of the hybrid regime that has enveloped us for the last thirty years. Ironically, history is a witness to the fact that political misfortunes of a people tend to lead to the betterment of a country by the adverse circumstances themselves, undoing the misfortune and opening new ways of progress.

In this connection, a parallel can be drawn between Pakistan of 2024 and Turkiye of 2003, when Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became the Turkish President when the country’s economy was struck by runaway inflation when a cup of coffee would cost three thousand liars. Hitherto, Turkey had been governed very much like Pakistan, where in the aftermath of Mustafa Kamal Ata Turk’s revolution, the country was run by the Army with a tight fist to the extent that in 1960, Adnan Menderes, the then Prime Minister of Turkey, was toppled and executed.