Crossing the Red Line

In the case of the post 9/11 U.S.-led War on Terror in Afghanistan, the Taliban (Mullah Omar) convinced the Taliban in Pakistan that they were the ones who had fought the Russian intruders alongside, and now they were to fight the American intruders being bound by the same umbilical cord of religion and Pukhtoonwali. It is worth mentioning that no country accepted their own battle-hardened Mujahedeen once the Jihad was over; therefore these Mujahedeen mingled with the locals and with tacit approval of the government, settled in the tribal areas.

Owing to the recent ignominious extrication of the U.S.-led coalition forces from Afghanistan, the U.S. has reasons to believe that their ‘Losing-Battle’ in Afghanistan is directly influenced by the hard-core Taliban operating from the tribal belt of Pakistan and aided and abetted by the Pakistan army. Apparently motivated by pure vindictiveness, the new goal is to neutralize the two major irritants, the Mujahedeen and the Pakistan Army in such an orchestrated manner that Pakistan is sucked in a situation wherein it is left with no choice but to fight a war with the Taliban on both sides of the border (the people who were made to wage war against the communist infidels in the name of Allah).

Today, the situation is that Pakistan is witnessing a very different scenario. There has been a spate of terrorist incidents in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, commonly abbreviated as KP or KPK, and Balochistan, including the recent ghastly suicidal bombing in the Peshawar Police Line Mosque. Apart from this, there have been reports of sporadic armed clashes on the Durand Line. Following the Taliban take-over there had been a lot of optimism in Islamabad as it was widely thought that with the Taliban back in power, and with its leadership traditionally being very closed to the ISI, having had converging interests, all things would settle down in its place –trans border trade will normalize, people-to-people outreach will resume, and many other great expectations. On the contrary, when the Taliban have now taken over Kabul once again, things clearly don’t seem to play out, the way Islamabad thought they would play out.

A different paradigm seems to be emerging that doesn’t conform to the long-preconceived pattern. Today, Pakistan and Afghanistan are at loggerheads issuing toxic statements against each other. As per Pakistan, the strings of the recent terrorist activities by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), go deep inside Afghanistan from where these are being controlled. Pakistan has stated that in accordance with the international laws, it reserves its rights to retaliate and strike on the areas being used as springboards for mounting terrorist activities on its territory the way it deems necessary. On the other hand, the Taliban government in Afghanistan issued a strong rebuttal, dubbing Pakistan’s assertion as an act of aggression.

The Afghan Government further asserted that it had nothing to do with the terrorists’ activities and that it was purely Pakistan’s indigenous problem. Moreover, the Afghan Ministry of Defence stated that it knew how to defend its territory against any possible aggression. As per experts, the two neighbours now find themselves in a state of standoff which, if not resolved, is fraught with serious implications for the two countries.

It is imperative to realise that contrary to the previous time, neither the world in general, nor has Pakistan in particular so far recognized the Taliban government. This not only multiplied the difficulties being faced by the Taliban in Afghanistan, but the stark indifference displayed by Pakistan in this regards has caused grave frustration and disappointment in the Afghan Taliban. This is the primary cause of the increasing terrorist activities by the TTP. According to Pakistan, the terrorists belonging to TTP are hiding in safe havens inside Afghanistan and that the latter despite having been warned many times has (deliberately) failed to stop its soil being used for mounting terrorist attacks inside Pakistan including the one on Army Public School Peshawar.

The TTP for its part has claimed mounting of about 369 attacks in one year (between 2021 and 2022), inflicting heavy losses on security forces. Pakistan also fears that as of now, owing to its denial to recognize the Taliban government, the latter would like to have the battleground shifted from its soil, and the U.S. once more involved in shadow chasing for the next 10 to 15 years in tribal areas of Pakistan, whilst they continue to receive funds.

The Way Forward

Unfortunately for the last one year, Pakistan is suffering from internal political instabilities as well as fast deteriorating economic conditions. This has seriously damaged its foreign policy in general and the bilateral relationship with Afghanistan in particular. The lack of diplomatic understanding between the two countries has created fissures that, if not addressed, can further widen to create an impasse.

It is imperative for Pakistan to realise that the Taliban in Afghanistan is neither an organized group nor a democratic entity. It is a power group which now enjoys its tentacles inside Pakistan in the shape of TTP. Pakistan must realise that with regards to its trade and economics Afghanistan is inherently heavily dependent on the former. Despite the fact that Pakistan has not officially recognised the Taliban regime, nevertheless it still is in the forefront in providing requisite support to Kabul on many fronts.

Pakistan at this juncture must take the initiative to break the logjam, restore diplomatic ties, remove misunderstandings and eradicate all ambiguities hampering peace overtures. Policy matters which proved to be the root cause of rancour must be addressed delinquently. Both countries should avoid use of volatile rhetoric that adds fuel to the fire. Only sustainable peace in the region would ensure prosperity and well-being of the people. At the same time, Pakistan government must, in very strict terms, make clear to its counterparts in Afghanistan about the red line they need not to cross.