Cover Story 
 

Cover Story

What if...

...Pervez Musharraf had quit office 6 years earlier than he did?

A speculation By Senator (r) Javed Jabbar | March 2023

As the contingent of soldiers carried the coffin of General Pervez Musharraf to the front of the thousands of civil and military personnel waiting to render namaaz-e-janaza at the Polo ground in Malir Cantonment, Karachi on 7th February 2023 along with the grief that brimmed up to my eyes there was also the wishful thought of a “What if...?”

What if the General had respected the 3-year timeframe granted to him by the Supreme Court in May 2000 to complete military intervention in the political sphere that had begun on 12th October 1999? Would the course of the country’s history be quite different --- and better --- than what it became in 2007 when the lawyers’ movement against him began, and his later exit from office in August 2008? This is to speculate on possibilities. Every reader can let her/his own imagination visualize an alternative future rather than this writer alone conjuring up potential scenarios. Because the times to consider are now past, this exercise may seem pointless and even irrelevant, especially when the main protagonist has passed away.

Yet, to ponder on what could have been, enables one to dwell briefly on the positive actions he actually took soon after replacing Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif as Chief Executive--- bar the referendum of April 2002, for which he had the grace to apologize later. In the very first year in office, and in his first three years, reformative and forward-looking changes represented how much more he could have done --- if, in this writer’s view, he had left office in 2002, and then come back later.

No interest in early exit options:

Chapter 22 of this writer’s memoir “A General in Particular: Interactions with Pervez Musharraf” published by Paramount Books, 2022, is titled “A political and exit strategy”. This chapter includes the text of the detailed paper that I wrote and provided to him on 9th May 2000 in my then-capacity as Adviser to the Chief Executive on National Affairs and Information and Broadcasting. In that paper, there were options defined to prepare for a stable transition. The fact that the General, despite originally asking me for such a paper never actually got around to discussing with me the choices identified, perhaps revealed his unfortunate lack of genuine interest in promptly leaving the powerful office he had come to occupy.

If the General had respected the original timeline defined by the Supreme Court and retired in October-November 2002 from the position of Chief of Army Staff as well as resigned from the office of President (acquired after the resignation of Rafiq Tarrar in June 2001), he could have devoted the next two years to purposeful public service in multiple ways. But even more, or most significantly, he would have become the first individual in Pakistan’s history to willingly surrender vast powers held by him in both the civil and military spheres. By so doing, he would have set an unprecedented standard of high character and integrity. He would have instilled pride among his fellow citizens about the fact that the nation is capable of producing outstanding persons who could become role models for youth and for future generations, an Army chief who genuinely respected the Supreme Court, and even more, respected the people of Pakistan and their right to have democracy restored at the earliest.

A beneficial 2-year gap:

Why did one say “the next two years” in the previous paragraph? Because, without taking away from the altruistic, unlikely idea of someone willingly giving up immense powers, on completion of the two-year interval mandated by law between ceasing to hold State/Government office and then becoming eligible to enter the political realm, Pervez Musharraf could have lawfully entered the political domain as a private citizen in 2004/5.. Strengthened by his record of credible, visible achievements in the first three years, the former General could have gradually, or even quickly, developed popular mass support --- to pose an attractive alternative to the conventional, corruption-prone, family-dynasty politics offered by the major parties and leaders.

Sceptics about this speculation will rightly ask: “But what about 9/11?” Which occurred during his second year, and turned his head because of how the US began courting him as a vital ally in the “War against Terror”? Certainly, America’s quickly retrieved fondness for military rulers post- 9/11 --- as long as they suited its own interests --- gave him notions of indispensability. Further, somewhat justifiably it could be said that, at a time in history when the invasion of Afghanistan had already taken place, and the invasion of Iraq was unfolding, it would not be in either Pakistan’s or America’s interest to see a change at Pakistan’s helm. But as the record of the world shows, though particular individuals make a crucial difference, it is institutions, and the force and sweep of trends, interests and factors that can sustain a direction, even when Vitally Essential Persons leave the scene, due to unavoidable happenstance. So, if Pervez Musharraf had looked beyond the immediate, to what was far more important, a volitional resignation from offices in October 2002 could have been conducted, regardless of 9/11 --- or no 9/11.


A path-breaking first year:

During the very first year of October 1999-November 2000 (when this writer resigned from the Cabinet due to reasons stated in the memoir referred to above reasons that included my great disappointment at his disinterest in preparing a strategy for his own exit) Pervez Musharraf had already authorized several substantive new initiatives. Most of these innovative policies and principles broke entirely new ground, and some of these have endured even after his own exit, and have been accepted by the Governments that succeeded his rule.

Dewan Muhammad Yousuf Farooqui
Businessman and former Finance Minister of Sindh

General Pervez Musharraf will be remembered as the leader of great influence who made significant contributions to the country during his time in office. He is known for his efforts to modernize Pakistan and improve its economic growth. Under the leadership of General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan underwent a period of transformation and economic growth. He made attempts to curb terrorism and extremism to improve economic conditions which were major challenges facing the country at that time. He empowered the citizens of Pakistan through the local body system which facilitated development at the grassroots level.

Perhaps, one of the most noteworthy features of his tenure is the freedom of press and media. Additionally, he pursued a policy of reconciliation with India, leading to the improvement of relations between the two neighboring countries. Under his leadership, Pakistan made strides in improving economy, infrastructure, education, and healthcare.

Although his tenure was marked by both challenges and successes, his impact will be felt for many years to come.

For instance: In prescient recognition of the rapidly growing youth segment of the population, through the Conduct of Elections Ordinance of March 2002, the voting age was reduced from 21 years to 18 years. This measure enfranchised millions of young women and men who were already on the cusp of the age of the internet, possessed of a new political awareness and keen interest in public affairs.

Credit for painstakingly detailed deliberation and careful formulation of some of the progressive new concepts should deservedly go to Lt. General (r) Tanwir Naqvi, Chairman, National Reconstruction Bureau and his team of associates at NRB, particularly for the radical new Local Government structures and the enhancement of reserved seats for women in all tiers of the LG system to 33 per cent and the allocation of executive powers to an elected Nazim instead of the traditional concentration of authority in appointed Deputy Commissioners. But credit for approving this proposal, as also for Police reforms, is rightly due to the General and his Cabinet, some of whose members, including this writer actively canvassed for, or provided their own suggestions, and supported the final recommendations by NRB.

Unprecedented advances for women:

Later, and before the 2002 polls, reserved seats for women in the Provincial Assemblies, National Assembly and the Senate were increased to 17 per cent of new, larger numbers of total seats in all legislatures to better reflect population growth over previous decades. The impact of women in elected forums was reflected in the emergence of about 40,000 females in all Local Government bodies across the length and breadth of the country in the 2000-2002 phase. This generated a path-breaking sociological change. Though the number was reduced in subsequent phases, starting even during Shaukat Aziz’s tenure as Prime Minister, the enhanced presence of women in legislatures has become an enduring fact that serves to notably reduce --- but not necessarily eliminate ---deeply rooted patriarchal, misogynistic tendencies and attitudes.

The joint electorate, abolished by General Zia ul Haq, was restored for Non-Muslim citizens. Who also received a kind of bonus. Non-Muslims could now contest and vote for general seats with Muslim candidates. One result was that, eighteen years later, in the 2018 polls, three non-Muslim candidates in Sindh defeated Muslim candidates, two for the Sindh Provincial Assembly, one for the National Assembly. At the same time, political parties were/are entitled to nominate non-Muslim members for reserved seats in legislatures in proportion to their party shares of the total votes cast.

Lt Gen (R) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai

General Pervez Musharraf was a towering military figure who was widely respected and admired in the Pakistan Army for a variety of soldierly and human qualities for not only as long as he served in the Army but well beyond his Army days. In death he will forever continue to be Pakistan Army’s hero and a legend in the heart of every Pakistani soldier.

I got the opportunity to work closely with General Musharraf with direct access after he became the Chief of Army Staff in October 1998. I was posted in the COAS Secretariat on a special assignment to design and develop Pakistan’s nuclear command and control system after Pakistan’s nuclear tests at Chaghi in May 1998.

From amongst numerous other professional qualities, one that stands out is that General Musharraf was brilliant at getting to the core of an issue instantly and then taking decisions with clarity and speed. I learnt much from him on that account. After attending the briefing on the proposed Nuclear C2 system, he appointed me as the first DG SPD where I was to serve for the next 15 years, more than half of these under his direct command. The appointment involved one-on-one access to the President on Pakistan’s most sensitive and top secret capability, many times at a moment’s notice. The Military Secretary would often arrange for me to drive with the President from the Army House in Rawalpindi to the Presidency in Islamabad for uninterrupted 45 minutes sessions. General Musharraf, fresh in the morning, would keenly listen to various proposals and grant spot approvals. His unflinching support to the SPD and trust in my professional judgement thus became central to the rapid and robust operationalization of Pakistan’s nuclear capability and strengthened deterrence. As such, as the patron saint of Pakistan’s Nuclear Programme, all credit must go to General Pervez Musharraf for securing Pakistan from external aggression for all times.

As a human being General Musharraf was kind hearted and compassionate. Easy going, friendly with a ready smile and humour, he loved playing bridge after hours. I enjoyed the privilege of joining him long into many nights struggling with strong and weak hands.

All in all, General Pervez Musharraf was an epitome of a soldier’s soldier, who was cut out from special steel. He practised what he preached, “sub se pehlay Pakistan”. May Allah Bless him forever for his selfless and sincere services to Pakistan.

Introducing independent electronic media:

In two Cabinet meetings held in 2000, Pervez Musharraf and the Cabinet approved, in principle, the draft law that this writer had the privilege of proposing and preparing. This law aimed to introduce privately-owned, independent TV and FM channels for the first time in the country’s history. (A previous Ordinance of 14th February 1997 also initiated by this writer and promulgated by the Caretaker Government of President Farooq Leghari and Prime Minister Malik Meraj Khalid had deliberately been allowed to lapse by the second elected Government of Nawaz Sharif ). Formally enforced through the PEMRA Ordinance on 1st March 2002, about 15 months after my resignation from Pervez Musharraf’s Cabinet, this law went on to transform the electronic media landscape of Pakistan. It ended the historic monopoly of PTV and PBC, expanded the scale and scope for candid debate and discourse, brought new vistas of entertainment, attracted billions of investments and created thousands of job skill-learning opportunities. Despite the hysteria and sensationalism of most news channels today in 2023, this policy has produced a true revolution in electronic media in the country.

Other progressive reforms included: increased financial autonomy for the Election Commission of Pakistan, a Rs. one hundred billion grant in 2000 for improvement of physical infrastructure in drought-prone regions like Tharparkar where, in subsequent years, metalled roads, water and power supply systems became realities like never before; Juvenile justice reforms to prevent abuse and vulnerability of child prisoners as well as a new country-wide uniformity in defining the age of children (i.e. up to 18 years); increased autonomy for the State Bank; stimulus to promote domestic and foreign investment, more effective enforcement of tax laws and additions to revenue collection; eventually leading to the phase of 2004-2008 when Pakistan did not need to turn to the IMF. Even though the Agra summit with India in 2001 did not produce instant major benefits, Musharraf went on to later agree with both Indian PMs Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh upon a four-point formula to take forward dialogue on Kashmir into new directions, a promise never realized because his self-made crises in, and onwards of 2007 derailed the momentum.

To summarize: in the first three years as COAS- CE-President, Pervez Musharraf had demonstrated the capacity to provide visionary leadership. He had gained credible credentials for using public office for the people’s benefit, a reputation that would have served him very well had he quit soon after October 2002 and returned to the political sphere after two years. He never encouraged or allowed his two exceptionally self-effacing, talented children, Bilal and Ayla to exploit his position. His wife Sehba rendered her public role as First Lady with charm and dignity.

Tariq Ikram
Pakistan’s former Minister of State.

A person who is unable to organise knowledge in his mind, the more knowledge he gets the more confused he becomes’. Pervez Musharraf was the complete opposite. He had this amazing capability of learning from persons, subject experts, around the table or over a period of time, then digest it, structure into a strategic frame work in his mind, prioritise, conceptualise the way forward and then, go for it. I am a witness to his this ability. Once presenting exports to him of rice, he started by not even knowing what was ‘Irri’ rice, or the trade dynamics. At the end of a 3 hour session, he was guiding us with valuable, strategic options! Discussing exports, pre one of our visits abroad, he heard me patiently, and picked up the most doable initiative to raise with the country; how can they import from Pakistan items that they already import from the world, which we also export to the world, but the country doesn’t currently import from us. Having myself met various heads of state, heads of Commerce, heads of multinational and local businesses I have to say, it was this ability of Pervez Musharraf which helped him and his team, achieve an unprecedented turnaround... an increase of Fx reserves from USD 530 Mn to nearly USD 17 Bn in 8 years with near zero increase in foreign debt!! May he rest in peace in heavens.

What could have been avoided:

To continue, and end, with the “What if...?” line of sunshine --- and not the “Line of Fire “ a la the title of his ghost-written autobiography of 2006! --- Pervez Musharraf would have probably desisted from, and avoided being associated with --- the following long list of tragic mis-steps, mis-calculations, mis-adventures. Allowing enforced disappearances and missing persons, some of whom were handed over to the USA for Guantanamo and other prisons. (In February 2023, two such Pakistanis illegally detained for 20 long, tortuous years, have been returned to Pakistan without ever having been charged --- an outrageous travesty of human rights, and a searing example of the General’s mistaken policy on this subject ).The mishandled Lal Masjid episode. The botched-up attempt in 2005 to arrest Nawab Akbar Bugti that ended in the Baloch leader’s unintended killing, and infamy for the General who was accused of being his alleged killer. Some of the General’s remarks deepened alienation in Balochistan. The dismissal of Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudhry in March 2007 and the ensuing lawyers’ movement that set the route to decline and ouster. The insistence on contesting for the Presidency while retaining his uniform. The imposition of Emergency and suspension of the Constitution for five weeks in November 2007. Wrongly being blamed for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto (whereas he had especially sent the DG-ISI a few hours earlier beseeching her not to attend the public meeting on 27th December 2007).

In the October 2002 elections, the General made no attempt to rig the vote-count to boost his own favourites. The Opposition PPP secured the highest number of votes --- 7.616 million --- while his own ally, PML-Q, came a distinct second with 7.5 million. Even after the post-poll manipulation through which 18 PPP MNAs decided to support him, the General’s nominee, Zafarullah Jamali became the Prime Minister by only a single vote margin. That was --- would have been --- the right moment for Pervez Musharraf to commence a bold new phase of his eventful life. But then....the dualistic traits of his persona empowered the negative rather than the positive facets within him.

As the namaz-e-janaza concluded, and his coffin was placed in the ambulance that took him on his last journey above the ground, there rose up in the mind’s eye vivid images of his robust, cheerful personality, always convinced that he was acting only in the best interests of Pakistan, profoundly unable to acknowledge that he too was fallible and dispensable, like all other human beings. If only, in October 2002, he had left in a blaze of glory.... and returned to earn even more as a civilian elected leader ....?!

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