Uneasy Partners

On international forums, both have been resolute in supporting each other on critical issues. India has been supported by Moscow on Kashmir on a number of occasions. Besides vetoing UNSC resolutions on Kashmir, Moscow has mostly termed Kashmir as an internal issue of India and does not subscribe to discussing it on international forums. However, it has aspired for normalisation of relations with Pakistan and been averse to any armed conflict between the two nuclear neighbours. For India, Moscow’s veto in the UNSC holds great prominence. Although it has been vying to get the veto status for itself yet its reliance on Moscow remains crucial. India has either been voting against or abstaining from voting during resolutions tabled against Russian interests in the UN.

Economically both countries have enjoyed cordial relations. Until its collapse, the USSR was India’s biggest trading partner. Soviet economic and technical contributions have been the bedrock of India’s domestic industries, including oil, gas and mining. Culturally, both countries have been engaging each other intensely through exchange of scholars.

On the military front, Moscow has always been a firm supporter of India, especially when it comes to hardware supply in air, land and sea equipment. It has been providing the most modern equipment of the time to India. Around 85 percent of India’s defence arsenal is of Russian origin which makes it heavily dependent on Moscow’s continuous support. For Russia it’s a good chunk of money and a consistent form of revenue. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia was the second largest global arms exporter to India between 2016 and 2020. As its largest importer, India received 23 percent of Russian hardware. There are several recent deals in the pipeline including the S-400 Air Defence system and development of AIP powered conventional submarines.

India and Russia are also trapped in a web of intertwined political compulsions. For Moscow, China is a reliable and important partner which is adversarial to India. Likewise, India has developed cordial relations with the US and EU which may not be to the liking of Russia. India’s inclusion in the Quad may not bode well with Russia. Similarly, India’s pomposity of being a non- aligned country also restricts it to align clearly with any political block.

Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US and EU have come up with economic sanctions against Russia. Criticism against President Putin has increased manifold and the world at large has demanded Russia to stop the war. India’s muted stance has been a disappointment in the eyes of its new found love with the US and EU. There is also a growing criticism against the Indian government on this muted response, especially in the wake of India’s casualty of students.

Will the Indian government succumb to this growing pressure? However, it is anticipated that India will be able to maintain walking this fine line because of two important factors; one that India has demonstrated this balance earlier also with Iran when it continued to enjoy waiver from the US on oil imports from Iran. Secondly, because India enjoys a key position in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy, it is important for it to maintain its critical military capabilities so that its stature as a net security provider in the region not only remains preserved but is improved upon. For this, continued Russian support stands critical for its existing military hardware inventory to keep running. The US will most likely provide another waiver to India in line with its grand strategic design enshrined in the Indo-Pacific strategy.