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Dhaka

Turning Point

The coming months will test whether Bangladesh can break free from its authoritarian past or succumb to another cycle of elite-driven politics.

By Atif Shamim Syed | August 2025


For nearly thirty years, Bangladeshi politics has been dominated by two powerful parties: the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). These two groups were locked in a never-ending fight for control, leaving little room for other political actors.
Elections in Bangladesh have often been controversial, with many reports of vote rigging, government-backed violence against opponents, and efforts to silence critics. Consequently, politics became more about staying in power than serving people. Over time, ordinary citizens lost faith in the system, as leaders focused more on political survival than addressing public issues.

This two-party dominance created deep divisions within the society. When one party won, rather than working for the people, it used its power to crush the other party. As a result, democracy weakened. Many felt that real change had become unattainable.

The year 2024 became a turning point. Sheikh Hasina’s increasingly authoritarian government finally collapsed under massive public protests, failing economy, and—most importantly— withdrawal of support from the military establishment.

All these factors created Bangladesh’s biggest political crisis since 1971. With the old government gone, new political groups emerged. The National Citizens’ Party (NCP) is the most popular among them. It started as a student protest movement but has now become a serious political player.
But big questions remain: Can this new party really change Bangladesh’s long history of authoritarian rule? Or will it be controlled or destroyed by the same powerful forces that have always dominated Bangladeshi politics?

To fully appreciate the significance of the current political moment, one must examine the historical context that shaped Bangladesh’s political landscape following its return to parliamentary democracy in 1991. Since then, two main parties—the Awami League (AL) and BNP—have ruled the country. Though they claim to be different, both have used the same dirty tricks when in power. They misused government departments to attack their opponents, creating endless political revenge cycles.

This problem worsened during Sheikh Hasina’s extended tenure, where the distinction between state and party became increasingly blurred. In 2014, general elections were conducted without the participation of the main opposition parties. International observers widely condemned the next elections in 2018 as fundamentally flawed. Both served as managed shows to keep Sheikh Hasina in perpetual power. These were not real elections but tools to make AL’s rule permanent while rendering the opposition toothless.

The facade of political stability carefully cultivated by Sheikh Hasina began showing cracks as Bangladesh’s economic foundations started crumbling under the weight of systemic corruption and gross mismanagement. By early 2024, the country found itself grappling with critically low foreign exchange reserves, unsustainable debt burdens, and spiralling inflation that devastated the urban poor and middle class.

What began as economic protests by university students and young professionals quickly snowballed into a nationwide movement demanding immediate political change. The government’s heavy-handed response, including arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, and live fire against protesters, served to fuel further public anger. The tipping point came when key factions within Bangladesh’s powerful military establishment - historically the ultimate arbiter of political disputes - signalled their unwillingness to continue propping up an increasingly unpopular regime. The speed with which Hasina’s government collapsed surprised even seasoned political observers, demonstrating how quickly authoritarian regimes can unravel when they lose both popular legitimacy and the support of key institutional actors.


In the aftermath of this political earthquake, the traditional opposition BNP found itself surprisingly ill-equipped to capitalize on the situation. Years of systematic repression had weakened the party. Internal power struggles further hampered its ability to present itself as a credible alternative. This failure of established political forces to cash in on popular discontent created ideal conditions for new political formations. The National Citizens’ Party has distinguished itself through its unique origins and composition. Unlike traditional Bangladeshi political parties that typically revolve around charismatic individual leaders or political dynasties, the NCP emerged from the protest movements of 2024, drawing its leadership primarily from student activists, young professionals, and reform-minded academics. Its divergent perspective manifests in the party’s core philosophy, which rejects personality-driven politics that have long characterized the Bangladeshi political scene.

There is a risk of opposition vote fragmentation that could allow remnants of the old regime to regain power through electoral means.

The NCP’s policy platform reflects a break from traditional politics. At its core lies a comprehensive proposal for institutional reform, including introducing proportional representation to break the two-party stranglehold, a complete overhaul of the electoral system to ensure free and fair elections, and dismantling legal instruments of repression such as the notorious Digital Security Act.

On economic policy, NCP advocates progressive wealth redistribution, stringent anti-corruption mechanisms, and government support for small and medium enterprises that form the backbone of Bangladesh’s economy. Most significantly, NCP’s organizational model represents a radical departure from Bangladesh’s traditional patronage-based politics. By leveraging digital platforms for mobilization and fundraising, and by building alliances with grassroots civil society organizations rather than traditional power brokers, this young party is striving to create a political ecosystem that is both vertically integrated and horizontally expansive.

However, the path towards a comprehensive political transformation remains fraught with challenges. The remnants of the old political order still control critical levers of power. Civil bureaucracy remains staffed by Awami League loyalists. The Judiciary retains its partisan character, and corporate networks tied to the former government maintain economic dominance. These entrenched interests will likely resist any substantive reforms that threaten their privileges.

The military establishment presents another critical uncertainty. While its withdrawal of support proved decisive in toppling Hasina’s government, the army’s tolerance for genuine democratic pluralism remains untested. Historical precedents suggest that military institutions often prefer managed political transitions that preserve their institutional interests rather than authentic democratic transformations.

The NCP also faces significant challenges in consolidating the anti-establishment vote. Several other new political formations, including Nagorik Oikya and Gono Odhikar Parishad, have emerged simultaneously, each vying for the same pool of voters. Without strategic coordination among these groups, there is a risk of opposition vote fragmentation that could allow remnants of the old regime to regain power through electoral means.

Media dynamics present another obstacle. NCP has effectively utilized digital platforms to bypass traditional media sources, but the continued dominance of pro-Awami League narratives in mainstream outlets limits NCP’s ability to reach broader segments of the population, particularly in the rural areas. The possibility of internet restrictions or more sophisticated online censorship also looms as a potential threat to the NCP’s digital-first strategy.

The NCP must address several strategic imperatives to translate its current momentum into lasting political change. Electoral reform must become an immediate priority. Without credible guarantees of free and fair elections administered by a truly independent election commission, any electoral contest would reproduce the flaws of the past. The party must also rapidly expand its organizational footprint beyond its current urban strongholds. While the NCP enjoys significant support among students and urban professionals, its presence in rural constituencies remains minimal. Building alliances with local leaders and crafting policy messages that resonate with rural voters will be essential for translating national popularity into electoral success.

Coalition building presents both an opportunity and a challenge. While partnerships with other reform-minded groups could amplify NCP’s impact, such alliances also risk diluting the party’s distinct identity. NCP must also develop strategies to sustain the momentum of the 2024 protest movement over the long term. Transition from street activism to sustained political engagement represents a difficult but necessary evolution. International engagement constitutes another critical front. NCP must carefully navigate international diplomacy to secure support without appearing as a foreign proxy - a common accusation levelled against reform movements.

Bangladesh stands at a historic juncture. The collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s government has created a rare opening for a lasting political change—the kind of opportunity that emerges perhaps once in a generation. The National Citizens’ Party, with its fresh leadership and reform agenda, represents the most promising vehicle for this transformation. However, the forces of reaction and regression remain powerful, and history is replete with examples of failed democratic transitions that began with great promise.

The coming months and years will test whether Bangladesh can break free from its authoritarian past or succumb to another cycle of elite-driven politics. What is certain is that the choices made today will reverberate through decades. They will determine whether Bangladesh finally achieves its democratic potential or slides back into another era of authoritarian rule with irreversible consequences.

One thing is, however, certain: the battle for Bangladesh’s soul has entered its most decisive phase.

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