Teesri Baar Modi Sarkar?

Recently concluded legislative elections in five Indian states were the last polls before this year’s forthcoming general elections. Political observers in India and abroad were watching these polls with acute interest to gauge the incumbent BJP’s level of popularity among the electorate.

Three of the five seats from North Indian Hindi-speaking states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh went straight to the BJP. The Indian National Congress (INC) won a single seat in the southern state of Telangana, while the northeastern state of Mizoram polled for a new political party, Zoram Peoples’ Front (ZPF).

These results illustrate Narendra Modi’s enduring popularity among the wider Indian electorate and his solid prospects of winning the next election unchallenged. Modi has come a long way from being a young party organization secretary in Gujarat in the late 80s to the most powerful politician in contemporary India.

The state elections have also proved to be a litmus test for Rahul Gandhi, who controls Nehru’s Congress party. Gandhi’s anti-Modi platform failed to deter people from voting for the incumbent BJP. The party’s dismal performance in the state elections has raised doubts about Rahul Gandhi’s leadership of the Congress and its pivotal position within the grand INDIA alliance.

However, despite this grave setback, all is not lost for the grand old party. Congress did manage to get around 40% votes in the three states where it lost to the BJP. This could be a glimmer of hope for the opposition. It can present itself as an alternative to the BJP that has dominated the Indian political landscape for over a decade.

As per the Election Commission of India, there are six national political parties in the country: the Indian National Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party, Aam Aadmi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist), and the National People’s Party (NPP). Of these six parties, the Indian National Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party are the most popular, with wide-ranging pan-India appeal. A few extreme regional political parties exist in different parts of the country. However, their domains are localized, and their impact on the national level is minimal.

Congress, a fundamentally secular party, spearheaded the independence movement in India. Its grassroots following transcends deep religious and sectarian divisions prevailing in Indian society. The BJP, on the other hand, is a right-wing party with strong leanings towards Hindutva, a political ideology based upon the cultural justification of Hindu nationalism and the belief in establishing Hindu hegemony. On a broader scale, the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections will be mainly centred on these two opposing ideologies when more than a billion people cast their votes in what is termed the most significant democratic exercise in the world.

Opinion polls suggest that more than 50% of adult Indians support Narendra Modi and his government, while only 14% hold a favourable view of Rahul Gandhi. Most respondents stated that Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra was a rebranding exercise that failed to leave a lasting impact on voters. Astonishingly, more than 70% of respondents indicated they were satisfied with how the BJP had led the government during the past ten years. A significant percentage of respondents termed the building of Ram Mandir and the revocation of Article 370 as Modi’s most significant achievements. The poll results were compiled after interviewing 35,000 adult voters from all Lok Sabha constituencies.

Modi’s overwhelming approval rating can be attributed – at least in part - to the effective promotion of Hindu nationalism. Established in 1980, the BJP only came to the fore in the 90s when the movement for building Ram Mandir in place of Babri Mosque was gaining momentum. The construction of a Hindu temple in Ayodhya was enshrined in the original manifesto of the BJP. Around thirty years later, Narendra Modi performed the ground-breaking ceremony of Ram Mandir in August 2020. The temple will be opened in January.

Likewise, the BJP’s manifesto also promised to repeal Article 370 of the Indian constitution, giving Jammu and Kashmir special status. Despite being a temporary provision, no party dared touch it for decades. In 2019, Narendra Modi finally did away with Article 370, rescinding Kashmir’s special status.

These are resounding victories for the BJP and a message to its right-wing followers that the party always keeps its promise.

This is not all. Under Modi’s leadership, the BJP has implemented numerous welfare schemes like cheap gas cylinders, free rations, cash transfers, etc. These policies have benefited the vast majority of people and remain extremely popular among the electorate. Congress has also implemented public welfare schemes on the state level, but their impact is minimal and does not seem to translate into favourable votes.
Then, there is Modi’s personal appeal. While Rahul Gandhi is regarded as an elite blue-eyed boy, Narendra Modi is widely seen as a man of the masses who clawed his way to the top from his father’s humble tea stall at Vadnagar railway station. The 73-year-old leader has been repeatedly accused of inciting violence against Muslims and providing immunity to Hindu extremists. BJP vehemently denies these allegations and maintains that it does not make any discrimination based on religion, race, or caste. Despite these allegations, Modi’s popularity has continued to rise over the past decade.

Every five years, millions of first-time voters enter the electoral process. The BJP has a very cleverly crafted stratagem for influencing these young voters. Before the 2019 elections, an Indian film titled PM Narendra Modi was released. It was a biopic of Modi, which served as a promotional propaganda film for the incumbent prime minister. Another film titled ‘The Tashkent Files’ was released around the same time. The film alleged that the Congress party engineered the death of India’s second prime minister, Lal Bahadur Shastri.

‘The Kashmir Files,’ ‘The Kerala Story,’ and the forthcoming ‘72 Hoorain’ are all films that tow BJP’s right-wing line. The Indian film industry has a profound, long-lasting influence on the Indian masses. Through these films and many others, Indian cinema is manufacturing a historically incorrect narrative for the young voter. After watching these propaganda films, a young Indian may not believe it entirely, but it will amend his opinion, eventually turning into a favourable vote.

This is a wake-up call for the Indian National Congress. Most of its leaders are still out of touch with the ground reality. Rahul, Priyanka, and Sonia Gandhi are the only three recognizable faces from the entire Congress hierarchy. Even its current president, Mallikarjun Kharge, is a person of modest standing. During the past decade, the Grand Old Party has been pushed to the fringes of the Indian political landscape. To reverse its fortune, Congress must bring young blood to the fore, revisit its election strategy, and form alliances with regional parties.

The Congress party has a rich political history. Rahul Gandhi must identify its enormous political capital and convince voters he can save India from becoming a majoritarian Hindu state – a feat Narendra Modi wants to achieve eventually.