Cover Story 
 

Cover Story

Illegitimate Government

A national government, riding upon the back of the Establishment’s strength, would be a far cry from people’s wishes, for it has never been able and willing to, nor will it carry out the essential reforms in all, but especially the governance and economic sectors.

By Nikhat Sattar | January 2024


The date for national elections in Pakistan has been announced as February 08, 2024, more than 90 days after the date when they should have been held, according to the Constitution. But, then, the Constitution has been disregarded and held in contempt so many times by state institutions that it hardly matters now.

The question in most people’s minds is whether the powers that be are confident that they would be able to stage-manage the election results by the date given or whether, given the continuously high popularity of the PTI and the lack of trust in other parties, some other means are to be adopted? It is almost given that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has been all but awarded the coveted prize of PM; it would be given majority in mostly the Punjab, and the PPP would be given a face-saver in Sindh despite the alliance between the ever-opportunistic MQM, PML-N and GDA and the JUI along with the allied PML-N would have a larger number of seats in KPK and Balochistan. Whether the PPP would decide to join the government or whether it would sit on opposition benches is still uncertain. The fate of the newly carved-out parties comprising the “converted” PTI members remains doubtful.

What is absolutely certain is that the PTI would either be disqualified or be allowed to win a few votes only in Punjab and KPK. The Times magazine, in its September issue, notes that “But the question remains whether any ballot can be free and fair with Pakistan’s most popular party routed and its leader wallowing in a fetid nine-by-11-foot jail cell. Election results are rarely universally accepted at the best of times in Pakistan, and accusations of bias could sow further disruption….,” says Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre think-tank. “Because if it’s not rigged, there’s a very good chance that the PTI could still win.”


Thus, none of the above results would be the consequence of a free and fair election process in which the visible neutrality of both the ECP and the caretaker government would boost voter confidence. On the contrary, the latter is almost handpicked by the powers that be, and most of its members are supporting the PML-N, while the former has been demonstrating a strong bias against the PTI from the very beginning. The public, other than the few cartels in industry, are either demoralized to the extent of complete disinterest in the elections or are so disgruntled that they would rather destroy their votes than vote for the favourites. This means that voter turnout is likely to be small; many voters would be brought from rural areas with the promises of cash and kind (a ploy the PPP has almost mastered in rural Sindh); staff at polling stations would be provided instructions by a pre- briefed ECP and vote counting would be likely non-transparent.

With an alliance between the PDM parties, probably minus the PPP, the formation of a (falsely carved out) national government would be possible but difficult. This would, of course, include the MQM, forever ready to change sides to whoever is in power and other regional parties. The opposition would be a whimpering collection of assorted parties, including those of Jehangir Tareen, and possibly a very watered-down PTI, if at all, unless it comes up with strong independent candidates. Such a national government, riding upon the back of Establishment’s strength, would be a far cry from people’s wishes, for it has never been able and willing to, nor will it carry out the essential reforms in all, but especially the governance and economic sectors.

Inflation is unlikely to go down, and the manufacturing industry will continue to suffer as more and more public money is used in roads and motorways, the hallmark of the Sharif family. Our boat has been on choppy waters throughout our existence, but especially so over recent years. The actions of the PDM and then those of the caretakers have only further cemented the stronghold of the state institution, and civilian rule has already been subjugated to them. The “national” government will not have any teeth to weaken this hold, beholden to it for having been brought to power. Democracy and all that goes with it, including the upholding of civilian rights, freedom of expression, and an intelligent, educated, and informed population, are not going to happen. Not in the near future.

What if the PML-N fails to get the minimum votes necessary for it to form a government at the centre? A hung parliament will ensue, and considerable time may be taken up to win over minority parties and independents. This is also familiar to Pakistani politics as the necessary wheeling and dealings are well-known skills of leaders of almost all (except the PTI) parties.

A bleak future awaits us, and a silver lining is elusive.

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