There is a signaling game called Beer and Quiche, which is widely used by scholars in writing about international relations. It goes something like this: the personality type of a player is that of a wimp and coward if he orders quiche for breakfast but brave and surly if he orders beer for breakfast. Player A would want to fight player B only if player A sees that player B has ordered quiche for breakfast. Similarly, player A would want to avoid fighting if he sees player B ordering beer for breakfast.
When Imran Khan won the election and became the Prime Minister of Pakistan, he expressed his desire of making peace between Pakistan and India. He even said that he would wait for the BJP to win the election because the chances of making peace with India would be higher under Modi’s prime ministership. Khan even returned the Indian pilot Abhinandan after his plane was shot down by the Pakistan Air Force. Modi watched Khan order quiche repeatedly. He knew he could fight this player. When Modi won the election, he knew the moment was ripe for the annexation of Kashmir and that is exactly what he did, knowing that Khan wouldn’t do more than just write some tweets and op-eds.
Pakistan asked the United Nations to do something about it. The same UN that couldn’t stop the United States from invading Iraq and which only criticizes Israeli actions. Suddenly, in Pakistan everyone was told to celebrate the fact that the UNSC had started talking about Kashmir for the first time in 50 years. That became our standard of success and, to a watchful India, that was another breakfast order, once again for quiche.
While America asks its citizens to be overly cautious and fearful of threats, which are quite negligible and, at times, nonexistent, Pakistan tell its citizens that they have caused the Indians great embarrassment. Spoiler Alert: Embarrassment will not do anything to any nation. Pakistan is perhaps equating embarrassment with sanctions. Speaking of which, Pakistan is in the grey list. The American citizenry is told to be afraid of imagined threats so as to make a case for the coming aggression. The Pakistan government high-fives its citizenry about an India that is losing in Kashmir. The result is a Pakistani citizenry that is passive because it keeps hearing from its government to calm down. Yes, we got this. The American citizenry is cognizant of an imagined threat while the Pakistani citizenry is incognizant of a real threat.
India didn’t revoke Article 370 of its constitution, which gives Kashmir an autonomous status, in order to just withdraw in 2 years. Currently, India is being badly battered by COVID-19. Modi’s government gave the worst economic performance in the last 4 decades. It has realized that its allies in Afghanistan are leaving town and the Taliban would not only order beer but also pour it on Indian wounds in Afghanistan. That is the reason behind India’s outreach to the Taliban to open communication channels with them. The Indians want their interests as well as nationals to achieve attack resistance inside Afghanistan. India is also worried about formidable China, which keeps beating India for fun. Indian Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat clearly said that China is a bigger threat to India than Pakistan.
The writer is a political analyst. He can be reached at imran.jan@gmail.com . His Twitter handle is @Imran_Jan
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