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Star Wars

Outer space over South Asia is becoming occupied to the disadvantage of Pakistan, which must act fast to lay its claim over a militarized zone.

By Ali Asad | June 2021

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Advancement in technology in the 21st century in the context of security has gone through frequent challenges. After land, sea and air, outer space is attracting strategic importance in the region. In fact, outer space is turning out to be a major arena for future military activities. Outer space is viewed as a conclusive factor and power multiplier in military operations against an adversary state and needs closer attention.

The world has already crossed the 5th generation warfare methodology. In context of South Asia, Pakistan and India both nuclear states, rely on the Balance on Terror (BoT) rather than Balance of Power (BoP). BoT defines the balancing approach between two nuclear powers in context of nuclear warheads and delivery means. BoT solely depends on deterrence. India is hungry to prove its military might in the region. In innovatively progressive times, outer space will probably be misused by the country for adjusting or exceeding the condition of deterrence and stability. Ballistic rocket defence systems and Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons could be utilized as advanced technological methods for establishing territorial authority.

In the South Asian perspective, India successfully conducted its anti-satellite (ASAT) test in 2019 from a launch site in the Bay of Bengal. From the Indian point of view, this test was inevitable to demonstrate that India is also a space force to reckon with. India sees itself locked in a strategic regional competition with China for a regional upper hand. Whatever India does to counter the threat of China, Pakistan sees it as a threat too. Pakistan being the only nuclear state whose nuclear program is India-centric, has locked itself for nuclear deterrence with India.

India last year held a military exercise along the Pakistan border in Rajasthan where Indian offensive and hostile developments displayed their power of striking against Pakistan in an atomic, chemical or biological climate. The navigation satellites that direct commercial airplanes could also be utilized by any country for directing long range ballistic missiles and India is no exception. Its space program can also help India in its Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) framework. This idea could be error-free (if that happens) due to advancement of technology and proficient error-free precision.

India’s aspiration to take further its ASAT weapons will trigger a new and redundant space weapons competition in South Asia. Besides, putting weapons in space, it will also destabilize the already generally weak international non-proliferation program.

Pakistan’s space organization, Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), is eight years older than India’s Space Research Organization (ISRO). SUPARCO took off at a brilliant pace but couldn’t make progress due to many reasons. Pakistan launched its first experimental satellite in cooperation with China from the Xichang Launch Centre in 1990. Later, during the Zia-ul-Haq government, SUPARCO planned to launch communication satellites but the plan was dropped due to financial cuts. Pakistan changed its fulcrum from state advancement towards fighting a war against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Its space program was left behind.

The only substantial progress which Pakistan made was the launch of Badr-II; the second experimental satellite, in 2001. Again, the government at that time did not take it seriously enough. Pakistan was on the verge of losing its designated orbit, 38E, due to delayed launch of its planned Paksat-1 satellite later in 2002. It was the wise management of the then President Pervez Musharraf who purchased a satellite from the U.S. and renamed it as Paksat-1. Thus Pakistan was able to maintain its slot in space.

The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), regardless of being eight years younger to Pakistan’s SUPARCO, is presently prevailing space and related activities in South Asia. India’s Agni-V Intercontinental Ballistic Missile reflects the capability of the country. Agni-V will act as a nuclear deterrent against China and pose a serious pronlem of strategic instability to Pakistan. ISRO is in a position to keep check on activities on the Pakistani side. There are a total of 13 satellites in space that are used by the Indian armed forces.

Pakistan is on the losing end and should now actively seek the cooperation of the international community for its space vision 2047. Pakistan should also take the route of establishing micro-satellites though this can prove to be an expensive option. Pakistan has an advanced ballistic missile program and it tested its multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRVed) ballistic missile “Ababeel” to stabilize the threat of the Indian BMD system. On a similar pattern, it could go for the development of glide missiles or hypersonic missiles to cater to the threat of India’s BMDs.

Outer space is militarized but not weaponized yet. The Indian space program is much mature while Pakistan’s space program has not taken off yet. The country must keep all doors open to deter the threat of nuclear militarized space before it becomes a nuclear weaponized space.

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The writer is a freelance contributor, pursuing MPhil in Political Science from the Government College University, Lahore. He can be reached at aasad6889@gmail.com

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