Another Great Game

By Akhtar Naveed Syed | June 2021

Empires, one after the other, seem to be affixed on controlling the territory of Afghanistan, which has rightly been called the graveyard of empires. It seems the US is following in the footsteps of the previous USSR and Britain, both of which left the region without completing their missions. The U.S. too will be doing the same, come September.

The Americans had decided during Donald Trump’s administration to withdraw forces, after securing a deal via the intra-Afghan talks in Qatar. The deal has since been rejigged by President Joe Biden. This raises questions in terms of geopolitics as regional partners-of-choice of the two administrations are starkly different. However, Biden did not change Trump’s envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, signifying that the American establishment is setting course for a long-term policy.

One cannot accept Washington’s viewpoint and actions at face value. In a recent speech, Biden categorized China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as its real foes, capable of destabilizing America. While acknowledging the presence of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Taliban continuing to be their protectors, the US president downplayed their capability to hurt his country’s interest.

Even after the US and NATO withdrawal, Washington aims to maintain a role in Afghanistan’s future nationbuilding. This role will be carried out by its so-called civilian contractors on the ground and their local contacts.

The current status of the Afghan imbroglio is such that the Taliban occupy the hinterland while government writ is only maintained in the cities. Post-withdrawal, the Taliban are certain to re-establish their dominance. Given that Afghanistan’s neighbours and the US’s arch foes China and Iran along with Russia, have established a deep relationship with the Taliban, one may question the withdrawal. The role of Qatar and Turkey also cannot be taken as neutral mediators.

With a plethora of issues at hand and numerous players vying for significant roles, a peaceful Afghanistan without American interference seems a difficult act to follow.

This is the point where the next Great Game begins. China eyes Afghanistan as a conduit for expanding its Belt and Road Initiative, seeks infrastructure contracts and aims to control anti-Chinese militants who are incensed at Beijing’s alleged atrocities in the Uighur-dominated province of Xinjiang. A South China Morning Post report claims that Beijing is considering sending peacekeeping forces to Afghanistan post-US withdrawal. Such a move would only roil American military strategists or maybe that is the American aim, as it could further its longstanding goal of ‘liberating’ the Uighurs.

Turning to Iran, one sees a different set of factors at play which too signify that the US withdrawal’s intent is anything but accepting defeat. As per American intel, Iran has become a home-base for Al Qaeda apart from its enhanced ties with the Taliban. Given America’s longstanding goal of regime change in Iran, such an approach only means a shift in strategy. America might end up securing Afghan bases for a future intervention in Iran, as any American administration cannot ignore Israeli concerns.

Russian and American ties are at their lowest since the end of the Cold War. Moscow has gained sway across the Middle East and now has a specific South Asia strategy to counter Washington’s interests. Russian ascendancy has been brought about by Trump’s America First policy and Barack Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’ strategy, when Washington realized the long-term consequences of Chinese actions in the disputed South China Sea.

With a plethora of issues at hand and numerous players vying for significant roles, a peaceful Afghanistan without American interference seems a difficult act to follow. This is also signified by Washington’s intent to maintain an aircraft carrier group in the Arabian Sea (away from the Persian Gulf) to monitor the situation in Afghanistan and carry out smart military strikes when needed. In addition to this, Britain aims to complement American designs via its military presence in Oman’s Duqm, where it has its ‘east of the Suez naval port’ – the first in the post-World War II era.

However, central to any solution in Kabul, is Islamabad’s role. Pakistan being the Taliban’s steadfast ally, is aiming to ensure stability for its western neighbour. Given animosity from most Afghan players and its allegiance with the Taliban and the Mujahideen movement, one can foresee a long-term Pakistani role in securing a peaceful Afghanistan.

If Pakistan can work with its strategic partners China and Russia while not drawing the wrath of the US, a burgeoning regional economic boom can be envisioned. A peaceful Afghanistan would allow Pakistan to access Central Asia’s markets directly, secure the longevity of the CPEC and regional BRI tracks, and realize the game-changing importance of Gwadar port.

With these geopolitical factors at play, a peaceful Afghanistan is hard to envision at preset and a Great Game sequel is all the more likely. In the current multipolar world order, the players jockeying for supremacy over Kabul, are only likely to increase. This is evidenced by the protracted and continuing upheavals in Libya, Yemen and Syria, where there are strange bedfellows whose alliances defy logic.

Region

Another Great Game

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