Region 
 

Islamabad

Day of Reckoning

A defeated, fragmented Iran would leave Israel as the Middle East’s unchallenged hegemon, controlling lands up to the Euphrates and arriving as a rogue power on Pakistan’s doorstep

By Ambassador M. Alam Brohi | April 2026


Pakistan’s chronic economic dependency on Western financial institutions and affluent Arab friends has systematically undermined its will and resolve to stand up as a sovereign nation. Its flawed Afghanistan policy, from the Saur Revolution onwards, including its involvement in the US war against the Soviet Union, hosting and training so-called Islamic warriors, and later helping the Taliban gain control of Afghanistan, has compounded this vulnerability. Internal political gerrymandering since the 1971 debacle and the resulting political instability have further eroded Pakistan’s capacity to make sovereign decisions, address challenges independently, and reckon honestly with moments of truth — both within the region and beyond.

The world has been fast-changing. It will change drastically after the ongoing USA and Israeli aggression against Iran. The war is bound to have far-reaching consequences for the Middle East in terms of geography, economic resources, and political sovereignty. The war was not prompted by the immediate prospects of Iran going nuclear or posing any immediate, existential threat to the security and territorial integrity of Israel or the United States. They have been blatantly lying to justify their invasion of a sovereign nation, and the brutality unleashed by the carpet bombing of Iran, targeting and killing the senior political and military leadership. The Mongolian barbarity, as preserved in history, pales in comparison to the brutality of these modern Genghis Khans.

The purpose of the war was to realize the Jewish dream of Greater Israel. This is borne out by the systematic elimination of the powerful Arab nationalist and autocrats from Iraq, Libya, Syria, and the destruction of the organizational infrastructure and power of nationalist Ikhwan, Hezbollah, and Hamas. The latter was patronized by Israel to undermine the PLO or the Al-Fatah after Yasser Arafat. These autocrats and organizations were known for their resistance to the expansion of Israel. Lebanon suffered a lot at the hands of the Israeli leaders since the early 1980s. The current pounding of the Lebanese cities and towns has caused a lot of devastation in terms of infrastructure and the displacement of over 700,000 people. All this is being perpetrated in flagrant violation of international law, the UN Charter, and war conventions adopted by the international community.

We don’t know how or in what way the war will end. We can apparently foresee that a new landscape of political, economic, and strategic conditions would emerge in the Middle East. If Iran survives the current military onslaught and strikes a deal with the US-led Western world under international guarantees, the depth and nature of the strategic threat to the Gulf States and Pakistan would be less challenging, as historically speaking, Iran has never posed any threat to the security and the territorial integrity of the Gulf States. Like all other states, it was increasing its area of influence with a view to resisting Israel’s expansionism. If the war goes in the way of these modern Mongols, with Iran battered, fragmented, and forced into submission to the control of the USA and Israel, Israel would emerge as the unchallenged dominant power in the Middle East, controlling all the states and lands up to the Euphrates, and becoming a rogue neighbor of Pakistan.


To all ultra-right Jews, Pakistan poses a bigger threat to their country than Iran or Türkiye. In the latter nightmarish scenario, we would have limited options - either to acquiesce in what our Arab brothers would do, accepting the dominance of Israel in the region, or to align with any other alliance, perhaps spearheaded by China and Russia. The political sovereignty of our Arab brothers would be drastically reduced and their economic resources fully controlled by the modern Mongols. They would choke the Iranian oil supply to all the countries that remain out of their sphere of control or refuse to wear the scented robe of the Abraham Treaties. China would be the first to face this restriction on the flow of Iranian oil.

Pakistan has been following a longstanding foreign and security policy of neutrality in any intra – Arab and intra-Muslim conflict. We should avoid giving any impression of being with this Muslim country or not supporting that Muslim country. Iran has made it plain that, exercising its right to self-defence, it attacked the US military bases in the Gulf States, and has not intentionally targeted any other infrastructure or place. Israel wants to divide the Muslim countries in the region. The Western policy of divide and rule has been at play during all Arab-Israeli wars, including the ‘Yom-e-Kippur’ war.

This policy of divide and rule has been reactivated by trying to create an unbridgeable wedge between Iran and the resource-rich Gulf States. Some believe that these countries are being targeted by Israel to provoke them to join their war against Iran. This would directly benefit Israel and the USA, weakening Iran’s resistance, and precipitating its capitulation, paving the way for the achievement of the main objective of the war - the dream of Greater Israel. The Arab leaders would be well advised to understand the concealment, deception, and subterfuge employed in war. Israel dragged the US into the war and now wants the Gulf States to jump into the arena.

Pakistan has never been in a more difficult situation than it is at present. India, licking its wounds from the brief air clash of May last year, will never miss an opportunity to avenge its humiliation; we are in a war with the Afghan Taliban on our northwest; Iran on our west is burning in a brutal war imposed on it by the USA and Israel; the insurgency in Balochistan has gathered steam, and ominously coincides with the TTP’s accelerated terrorist attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Our economy continues to be dependent on foreign loans, and remittances dispatched by our compatriots from the Gulf States, which would certainly be drastically cut given the economic fallout of the war; the intensifying stances of the ruling class and the opposition in the political arena at this critical juncture ridicule the political wisdom of our political leadership. It is the responsibility of the ruling party to address the political grievances of the Opposition, which was genuinely elected by the people of Pakistan.

The ruling elite regretfully prioritizes the decimation of the Opposition over the national situation. An Anti-Terrorist Court has recently handed down harsh punishments to dozens of high-ranking leaders and activists of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, including its founding chairman Imran Khan, on charges generally believed to be politically motivated. The courts should function even in emergency situations, but the nature of the cases, the prosecution’s purpose and intent, and the timing of judgments always matter.

Any system of governance that relies more on coercive state measures than on public service is bound to create political agitation, confrontation, and instability. We found ourselves in a deepening political quagmire since April 2022, when the PTI regime was removed by a vote of non-confidence backed by the Establishment. It seems this political confrontation suits the elite and certain power-wielding institutions. This may be so provisionally, but it is always harmful in the long run. Public support is a sine qua non for the success of national missions. Let us be a nation and not a crowd of bystanders. We are as concerned for the territorial integrity of our land as any institution. It is bad governance to try to test the patriotism of citizens living in any part of the federation.

The difficult times are ahead. The war in the Middle East would create new political and economic landscapes, with both opportunities and challenges. Pakistan, being a strong, nuclear Muslim country, can emerge as the leading power in the new emerging region from the vast steppes of Kazakhstan to the Mediterranean shores. However, this can never happen until we unite the nation and address internal political challenges that undermine the federation, find a negotiated solution to the festering insurgency in Balochistan, and iron out our strategic differences with the interim administration of Afghanistan.

We should rehabilitate our economy by doing away with all the luxury concession and privileges extended to the elite (recently reported to be $17.5 billions), shun our chronic habit of begging loans and roll-outs, drastically cut our overhead expenditures reducing the size of bureaucracy, and cabinet in the federation and provinces, curb corruption, and mismanagement of resources and pilferage of funds. We should focus on building a vibrant nation rather than managing a flock of lambs; free our political system from gerrymandering and ensure fair and transparent elections, letting national and local political dynamics determine the voters’ verdict, as in civilized nations.

Baloch, Sindhi, and Pashtun vociferously complain about the erosion of their political and economic autonomy. There would be no harm if the whole situation of political and economic autonomy were reviewed by a non-controversial committee from across the national political spectrum. The leaders of the Baloch Yakjehti Council and PTI need to be set free to play their part in the political reconciliation process. There is no threat to the state from these leaders. Their continued incarceration has been fueling public anger and political bitterness.

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