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ALL STRANGERS IN THE END

During the second term of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, any significant changes in U.S. policy towards Pakistan will depend on the pros and cons of its strategic relationship with India.

By Ambassador Sanaullah | December 2024

ALL STRANGERS IN THE END
No one can tell for sure what U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Asia policy will be. His concerns and foreign policy objectives regarding Asia, especially China’s emerging influence, are well known, and the selection of his foreign policy team signals a hawkish attitude. The undeniable reality is his focus on championing America’s choice of India as a strategic partner for geopolitical and economic reasons. His return to the White House potentially creates a situation where he may develop a focused policy if he chooses, though the prospects for this are low. In his conduct and dealings with Asian countries, he is unlikely to veer far from the current American policy. The choice of key Cabinet members has indicated stronger U.S.-India relations, including a focus on China.

Nevertheless, given the peculiarities of Donald Trump’s persona, uncertainty and sudden changes in specific situations cannot be completely ruled out. The three largest nuclear powers in Asia presently or previously held varying degrees of relevance to the US administration are China, India, and Pakistan. The other four countries that President Trump engaged with during his first term included North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, and Russia (due to China and Afghanistan). In some form, these countries may again claim his attention.

Trump’s broad policy themes, such as “Make America Great Again” and “America First,” largely relate to this region, as China’s growing global influence is perceived as a threat to the US. Trump’s new administration will likely navigate rivalry or competition with China through transactional diplomacy while intensifying strategic partnership with India. Barring China and India, all other Asian countries may receive lower priority from his administration.

President Trump is notoriously unpredictable and impulsive, and he could change course at any time, potentially perplexing his allies and even his administration. These countries may face a blend of clear and ambiguous U.S. policy due to the nature of today’s polarized yet highly integrated world. However, fortunately, all South Asian countries that dealt with him four years ago have had time to prepare for his administration, as speculation about his return to power never faded. The challenge now is that he returns with a stronger mandate and more confidence, albeit with reduced global influence, to achieve America’s goals. The question is whether these countries can confront his deal-making habits without causing severe economic and political turmoil globally.

It seems that uncertainty will mark his business-like approach. Cooperation with countries including Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan will be redefined based on shared interests or the level of “convergence” these countries can create with the priorities of the Trump 2.0 administration. Another determining factor could be how seriously or swiftly the U.S. administration might respond to countries pursuing unfriendly policies. If leaders in these countries can identify areas of convergence as per American priorities, they can benefit fully from their relationship with the world’s largest economy, biggest importer, and strongest military power. Otherwise, they may endure a challenging phase of an unsteady cooperative relationship with the U.S.

While Trump’s first term is instructive, it offers no guarantee that he will behave in the same manner. Aside from his mercurial nature, the world has changed significantly in the last four years. If he follows his election rhetoric, he will prioritize focus on China. Trump has proposed a 60 percent tax on imports from China, though this figure may change due to negotiations and lobbying for more affordable Chinese imports. This scenario is not new, and China has prepared for it. Chinese leadership does not expect Trump to allow the transfer of civilian and military technology to China. Many in China remember how, in his first term, Trump imposed new taxes and restrictions on Chinese technology companies. These new moves would be worrying, as China needs advanced semiconductors, such as 7-nanometer chips, or more advanced designs used in Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications.

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