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It’s the Economy, Stupid!

During the past three years, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has successfully negotiated new trade deals with the world’s leading economies, thus further benefiting the growing business and middle class.

By Atif Shamim Syed | May 2024


The world’s largest elections have kick-started in India. They will continue for weeks and conclude in June. Around one billion Indians – 970 million, to be precise - can vote in the parliamentary elections. By all accounts, incumbent Narendra Modi of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to win these elections. This will be his third consecutive term as prime minister since he came to power in 2014. Narendra Modi currently stands as the most widely popular politician worldwide, with a whopping 75 percent approval rating among his fellow countrymen.

Modi commands monumental nationwide reverence. His authority within the party is unquestionable. He is perceived as hard-working, industrious, and fiercely dedicated to the political and economic advancement of his country. Meanwhile, the opposition is feeble, fractured, and almost irrelevant – widely seen as dynastic and corrupt to the core. Modi, on the other hand, has no dynastic ties. His increased foreign policy assertiveness resonates strongly among young Indians, further bolstering his popularity.

However, there is another side to Narendra Modi. He has increasingly authoritarian inclinations that are growing by the day. He shies away from parliamentary debates and rarely gives interviews. During his previous tenures, he has concentrated power and fostered a cult of personality around himself, diminishing India’s federal system. Under his guidance, India’s Hindu majority has gained extreme eminence, a shift with long-lasting detrimental effects, marginalizing minorities and scuffing India’s founding principles of secularism and inclusion. Fundamental democratic institutions like the free press and an impartial judiciary have suffered enduring erosion.

Modi is sometimes compared with contemporary strongmen like Donald Trump and Vcitor Orban. However, while Trump and Orban may not be popular among their respective countries’ educated classes, Modi’s popularity seems to transcend all boundaries. A Pew survey conducted last year found that highly educated Indians hold a very favourable opinion of Modi. This finding goes against the widely held belief that educated individuals and elites do not support populists or authoritarians. Modi seems to defy this perception. How?

It’s the economy, stupid!
Under Modi’s watch, the Indian middle class has grown considerably in size and wealth. Their purchasing power has grown directly proportional to their support for the BJP. This is not all. During the same time, India’s global economic clout has also increased due, in part, to its positioning as a counter-weight to an increasingly assertive China. Modi has negotiated at least four new trade deals during the past three years, which will further benefit the growing middle class. It is estimated that by 2027, the number of Indians earning an annual income of 10,000 dollars will cross the 100 million mark.


Surprisingly, Mr. Modi’s appeal to the well-educated demography does not diminish his support among other less-affluent segments of society. In fact, like many other populist leaders, his most vital support base lies within lower-class voters. More surprisingly, Modi’s support seemed to have surged among poor voters who did not benefit economically from his policies. This is where Modi’s second favourable factor comes into play - India’s inherent caste system.

Hailing from a relatively low caste, Modi has strategically positioned his organization as a casteless pan-Hindu party. This strategy allows him to maintain support from high-caste factions while broadening its appeal into other demography.

Under Modi’s watch, the Indian middle class has grown considerably in size and wealth.

India’s educated elite openly express their dissatisfaction with Modi’s discriminatory treatment of Muslims and his brazen use of law enforcement against political opponents. However, there is a prevailing belief that these are acceptable side effects of being a strong leader—and strength is exactly what India requires. This is the third factor in Modi’s exponential approval calculus.

Indian businessmen repeatedly complained that their country was too democratic, a trait that hampered its economic growth over the past decades. They pointed towards neighbouring China, which has shown spectacular growth under one-party authoritarian rule. Though the Chinese model cannot be exactly emulated in India, the elite still firmly believes that a strongman approach is good for business and, by extension, the economy. And they have credible data to show it.

During Modi’s tenure, the Indian economy has grown faster than all its peers. Foreign direct investment has more than tripled since he took office, and just recently, the Indian stock market beat Hong Kong to secure the fourth spot globally. Prominent businessmen are too happy to acknowledge Modi’s receptiveness to their concerns. He attends business gatherings, engages with executives, and asks insightful questions. They also recognize that Modi has facilitated overseas opportunities for them to forge closer ties with the US, the Gulf states, and Israel.

Is there anything that can disturb Modi’s approval equilibrium?

Modi has consolidated immense power in his own hands, which is why a single mistake on his part can bring about significant repercussions for the entire country. For instance, in 2016, he implemented demonetization in haste. The exercise resulted in a 2 percent decrease in India’s growth. Similarly, the sudden imposition of a nationwide lockdown in 2020 prompted a homeward exodus of millions of migrant workers, contributing to the spread of the virus and causing countless deaths.

On the other hand, persistent politicization of state institutions could ultimately harm him. Moreover, businessmen who express admiration for the prime minister are secretly afraid of him, knowing that their continued prosperity relies on maintaining his favour.

Despite some missteps and shortcomings, Modi enjoys iron-clad popularity among the electorate. Missing from the Indian political equation is a truly credible, strong, and meaningful opposition. Until it comes to the fore, brand Modi will continue to court the elite and the masses alike.

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