Double Jeopardy

By Dr. Moonis Ahmar | June 2020

It is too early to predict a radical transformation of the prevailing world order once the coronavirus pandemic crisis is over. The earlier structural change in the global order after the end of the Second World War and the end of the Cold War was predictable as the map of the world had changed because of the two major global events. The pandemic crisis of 2020 is of a different nature as the virus which is said to have originated in Wuhan China at the end of December 2020, has spread to all the continents of the world and the number of those infected has crossed over 4 million while the death toll has crossed 300,000 lives.

The physical and financial damages of COVID-19 are unprecedented as never before in the last 100 years, barring the Spanish flu of 1918, the world has been so vulnerable to a virus with a lethality that has no boundaries. The crisis has exposed the fault lines of the World Order because two major global powers, the United States and the People’s Republic of China, are eye ball to eye ball, blaming each other of spreading the virus, thus plunging the entire world in a colossal crisis.

The World Order means a global system in which major international actors and global transnational organizations play a vital rule. The World Order is composed of international economic, military, security, political and information systems which are responsible for governing the world. The United Nations, the Group of Seven, the Group of 20, the World Economic Forum, NATO, the World Bank and IMF, the Asian Development Bank and other organizations play an important part in the functioning of World Order.

In analysis, it is obvious the world order has weakened the unipolar system which emerged after the disintegration of the Soviet bloc. It is gradually being replaced by a multipolar order. From 1945 till 1991, the world was bipolar in which there were two centers of power i.e. the United States and the Soviet Union. Prior to 1945, the world order was multipolar and imperial in nature in which great European powers like Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Belgium had vast colonial territories in Asia, Africa and Latin America. After the dismantling of the imperial world, the vacuum was filled by America and the Soviet Union. In the last 15 years, one can observe the steady erosion of the unipolar world order and the fragility of American power despite the fact that out of 1.9 trillion dollars of global military expenditure in 2019-2020, the United States share stood at 750 billion dollars. The emergence of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is another attempt to challenge the unipolar world.

It was the former American president Barack Obama who confessed in his second term (2012-16) that the world was gradually being transformed to multipolar and the United States must accept the reality that it cannot maintain its supremacy over the world forever. But, during the Trump administration, every effort is being made to sustain American power not by taking its western allies on board but by pursuing a policy of ‘unilateralism.’

Not Like Dinosaurs

It is a completely different virus from the Influenza viruses which belong to a very different group, meaning that flu vaccine or flu medication will not help. For now, we have no medication or vaccine for the virus. The genetic structure of this virus and a flu virus are as different as we are from dinosaurs.

— Guido Vanham

How will the World Order in wake of the pandemic crisis unfold and will the enormous physical and economic fallout of coronavirus have an impact on the world? What will be the shape of the United Nations and the European Union in the post-pandemic crisis world and how around 8 billion people on the earth will cope with the threat of the pandemic in the years to come? These are the questions which are being raised today in the midst of a serious economic crisis.

Three possibilities can be figured out in the aftermath of the crisis. First, the global economic order, which emerged as a result of Bretton Woods after the end of the Second World War, will take several years to recover from trillion dollars of losses. The ‘lockdown’ of more than two-thirds of the world for months and the reality of the pandemic crisis lingering for several more months will make things miserable for poor and developing countries.

The 2020 presidential elections should produce results that can provide confidence to the world about mitigating unnecessary confrontation with China and Iran.

The West has suffered because of the crash of the airlines and oil industries, all other industries, stock markets and unemployment of millions. The poor and least developing countries will face serious problems because of the sharp fall in remittances, massive unemployment and a huge drop in exports. The implications of lockdowns in the form of fall in businesses, closure of factories and industries will further deepen economic woes of both the developing and developing countries. It will be difficult for the West to avert issues which will further deepen its economic predicament.

Second, the future of the World Order also depends on results of the 2020 American elections. If Donald Trump gets another term, the World Order will further polarize as the US rift with China will deepen in the backdrop of allegations of the Trump administration that China failed to warn and prevent the spread of coronavirus. The allegation that China is responsible for creating and spreading the coronavirus and needs to pay damages for the world’s financial and physical losses will become serious.

If Trump loses and democrat Joe Biden is elected, the scenario will be different as confrontation with China and Iran, will lose its intensity. The mindset which shapes the Trump administration is based on ‘unilateralism’ and pursuing an aggressive approach against China and Iran. The pandemic has further deepened polarization between the United States vis-a-vis Iran and China. Despite appeals made by Iran that the United States lift sanctions because of enormous casualties in the wake of the pandemic, Washington has refused to consider the humanitarian aspect of Iran’s appeal.

Trump’s rift with the Director General of World Health Organization, blaming him of mishandling the coronavirus crisis and suspending American funding for the organization, reflects rashness and irrational behaviour of the American president. Trump’s habit of opening many fronts at the same time and at the expense of American credibility will certainly end if he is defeated. Since the United States failed to lead the world in difficult times of the pandemic, his re-election will further question America’s capability to rebuild the seriously damaged world and deepen U.S isolation in global affairs. The double jeopardy in the prevailing global order is the pandemic and America’s failure to play a leadership role.

The European Union is unable to play a leadership role in the crisis but it hosted a virtual international conference in early May to mobilize resources for inventing a vaccine. The conference, which was skipped by the United States, raised $ 8 billion. It was said by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: "Today, the world showed extraordinary unity for the common good. Governments and global health organizations joined forces against coronavirus. With such commitment, we are on track for developing, producing, and deploying a vaccine for all."

Third, the World Order will have to learn to live with the coronavirus for years as the pandemic will not disappear, particularly when no vaccine to effectively cure the disease has been developed so far. In that case, the vacuum in global leadership because of Trump’s policy of unilateralism and his confrontation with China will pose a great challenge to the world which for years shall be grappling with financial and physical losses.

The World Order in 2020 is marred with utter confusion, chaos and crisis. The silver lining which can positively transform the World Order in the years to come is change in the U.S leadership. The 2020 presidential elections should produce results that can provide confidence to the world about mitigating unnecessary confrontation with China and Iran.

Not Like Dinosaurs

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Update