Region 
 

Kabul

Militant Haven

Afghanistan’s internal situation—economic collapse, food insecurity, and rising violence—continues to deteriorate.

By Ambassador Sanaullah | April 2025


Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 sparked hopes that Afghanistan would regain peace and stability. Regional countries welcomed the U.S. troop withdrawal, though not all supported the Taliban’s agenda. Pakistan had called for a ‘responsible’ withdrawal to avoid bloodshed but later hailed the hasty U.S. exit and the fall of Ashraf Ghani’s government as a ‘Taliban victory.’ Social media was flooded with supportive statements from officials, ministers, and religious-political parties, while mainstream political parties voiced concerns about Pakistan’s unpreparedness for the fallout.

Iran and Tajikistan, despite serious apprehensions over the Taliban’s exclusive control, followed the general trend of welcoming their rule. The regional focus was on stabilizing Afghanistan and reviving its war-ravaged economy. Initially, the Taliban enforced law and worked to improve administration, even preventing local commanders from seizing the properties of former officials. This created temporary relief, leading people to believe that ‘Taliban 2.0’ was different. However, this perception quickly faded as the resurgence of IS-K and Al-Qaeda, along with internal Taliban divisions, cast doubt on their ability to implement the Doha Peace Accord (2020).

Taliban leaders understood Afghanistan’s complex challenges but soon alienated their supporters. Sympathy for Afghanistan gave way to cautious engagement. The country is not entirely isolated—Azerbaijan, China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan maintain embassies in Kabul. China even appointed an ambassador without formal recognition. Regional mechanisms like the SCO, Moscow Format, and UN committees, Afghanistan Quad remain operational. China, in particular, seeks to curb anti-Beijing ETIM militants operating in Afghanistan. Chinese nationals have faced attacks in both Kabul and Pakistan from BLA and TTP. Other countries engaging with the Taliban include India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Russia, while the U.S. remains involved through humanitarian aid.

The Taliban has failed to provide good governance, and Afghanistan faces deep economic and humanitarian crises. The latest UN Security Council report confirms that Taliban leadership allows Afghan soil and finances to support TTP, ISKP, ETIM, and other militant groups. This has led to armed conflicts, border closures, drone strikes, and retaliatory Pakistani missile attacks targeting TTP and BLA shelters inside Afghanistan. From July to December 2024, TTP and BLA, along with IS-K, carried out 600 attacks in Pakistan. Pakistan refuses to tolerate the Taliban’s non-cooperation on TTP and BLA activities.


Internal divisions persist within the Taliban government. Tensions between the ruling elite and hardline religious leaders hinder diplomatic engagement. The group, historically divided along ethnic, tribal, and regional lines, was expected to form an inclusive government under the Doha Accord. Instead, leadership disputes have deepened over girls’ education, governance, and the use of Afghan territory for militancy.

Reports suggest that Mullah Hibatullah remains committed to his hardline views, prioritizing ideological purity over economic stability and alliances. He believes the Taliban’s victory is incomplete and remains focused on ‘purifying’ Afghan society. His grip on power has tightened through ulema councils monitoring Taliban officials. His strategy maintains ties with TTP and Al-Qaeda while preventing defections to IS-K.
Afghanistan’s internal situation—economic collapse, food insecurity, and rising violence—continues to deteriorate. The Taliban’s only advantage is the weak opposition led by the National Resistance Front (NRF), which is strengthening ties with Tajikistan. Analysts fear Afghanistan could spiral into new chaos as IS-K escalates attacks in Kandahar and Kabul.

The Taliban’s fragmentation along tribal and ethnic lines resembles the pre-1990s era when Afghanistan became a militant haven. Internal groups may renew alliances with foreign militants if they feel militarily vulnerable. For now, the Taliban remains unwilling to change its stance on Pakistan’s grievances or fulfill the Doha Accord.

The Taliban cannot resolve Afghanistan’s crises alone. Their key challenges include political instability, governance, and securing international recognition and financial resources. Over 90% of Afghans live in poverty, unemployment is rampant, and half the population faces acute hunger. Millions are internally displaced or returning from neighboring countries. The Taliban must decide whether to engage with the world constructively or risk further isolation. Regional countries seek peace and development in Afghanistan, but the Taliban’s actions will determine whether this goodwill is harnessed. The current status quo threatens stability across the region.

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