AT A CROSSROADS

The China-Pakistan relationship, often heralded as “higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans,” has stood as a pillar of strength in a volatile region for over six decades. Rooted in the early 1960s, when both nations sought to escape isolation during the Cold War, their alliance has been marked by military, economic, and strategic collaborations. The signing of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2015 amplified this partnership, positioning Pakistan as a key player in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, recent developments have strained this once-unshakeable alliance, leaving many questioning whether the bonhomie is facing serious challenges.

The China-Pakistan relationship exists against the backdrop of an intricate geopolitical landscape. Nestled between China, India, Afghanistan, and Iran, Pakistan plays a crucial role in South Asia’s balance of power. For China, Pakistan is a strategic counterbalance to India and a gateway to the Arabian Sea, which is crucial for its trade routes and energy security. Pakistan’s geostrategic location grants Beijing a direct route to the Persian Gulf, bypassing the contested South China Sea and the chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca. However, as regional dynamics evolve, including India’s growing military and economic ties with the U.S., China’s reliance on Pakistan becomes more complex, leaving Beijing to weigh the costs of this partnership.

Pakistan’s domestic political chaos, marked by infighting among political elites, economic volatility, and the perpetual tussle between civilian and military leadership, has cast a long shadow over CPEC’s progress. The instability stemming from unresolved political crises has diminished investor confidence and derailed the pace of key projects. Additionally, constant political upheavals have diverted focus from strategic planning, leaving Pakistan ill-equipped to navigate its geopolitical challenges. This domestic disarray has also eroded China’s trust in Pakistan’s ability to deliver on CPEC promises, as Beijing prefers predictability and continuity in its international ventures.

The province of Balochistan, where the deep-water Gwadar Port – the crown jewel of CPEC – is situated, remains a hotbed of insurgency. Pakistan’s inability to quell separatist violence and terrorist activities in the region has further strained China-Pakistan relations. The frequent attacks on Chinese nationals and infrastructure projects have created unease in Beijing, casting doubt over Pakistan’s commitment to securing Chinese investments. With each insurgent assault, the fragility of CPEC becomes more apparent, and China’s patience with Pakistan’s failure to resolve Balochistan’s security dilemma seems to be wearing thin.

The United States has long viewed the CPEC and, by extension, the Belt and Road Initiative with suspicion. Washington perceives it as a direct challenge to its global hegemony and a vehicle for China to expand its influence over developing nations. The U.S. has attempted to counter CPEC through diplomatic maneuvering and economic aid packages to lure Pakistan away from Beijing’s orbit. Although Pakistan remains steadfast in its commitment to CPEC, American pressure has complicated Islamabad’s balancing act between its long-standing ally China and the West.