One More Chance

With Narendra Modi sworn in for the third term as prime minister of India, the most trouble-ridden history of the sub-continent has now entered its crucial phase.

According to authentic statistics, India has two hundred thousand Muslims, constituting nearly 12% of its population, exceeding that of Bangladesh and close to Pakistan. There are also pockets within Indian states, such as Andhra Pradesh and Punjab, where Muslims are in the majority. Treating them as second-class citizens, harassing them with disparaging remarks of leaders, and depriving them of their fundamental rights have internal and external consequences.

Clearly, Narendra Modi is aware of these developments but sets aside these concerns as he feels India’s strategic, economic, and political clout is such that major powers and other countries would ignore it. The human rights organization’s muted critical remarks, too, have been set aside, while the West’s discreet remarks against India’s policies sharply contrasted with their criticism of China and Russia for maltreating the minorities.
The question is, will Narendra Modi in his third term as PM, be any different? It is unlikely, but it depends on what sort of legacy he aspires to: As a fire-brand Hindutva activist who restored the glory of Ram and Sita or as a democratic leader of the 21st century who stood for the rights and privileges of all Indians irrespective of their religion, caste, or creed?

Unless there is a transformational change in Modi’s thinking, the more likely would be his legacy as a strong leader who succeeded in elevating India’s economy, making it the fifth largest in the world, and steered the country towards a deep Hindutva religious orientation. Whilst the strong economic growth had a positive impact on the stature and influence of India as an aspiring global power, the narrow and prejudiced approach towards minorities and low-caste Hindus does undermine the potential of India and its image. There are long-term implications for pursuing a policy of discrimination against a large cross-section of the population. By denying the Muslims the same opportunities comparable to the Hindus, the BJP government promotes discontent and divisive tendencies. It is a form of apartheid that goes against international norms and defies moral codes.

Narendra Modi has, however, succeeded in offsetting the backlash of these discriminatory policies due to his strong bilateral relations with the US and Western countries. As regards China, its main focus is on maintaining robust trade and commercial ties with India. Narendra Modi, during two terms in office as PM, stabilized relations with China and maintained the country’s traditional ties with Russia. Moreover, as a matter of policy, China rarely comments on other countries’ internal issues. Modi also is capitalizing on the fact that there is not much goodwill for Muslims in most of these countries, as is evident from the support Israel continues to receive despite its most brutal and dehumanizing attitude towards Muslims in Gaza and elsewhere. Relations between India and oil-rich Muslim countries of the Middle East remained steadfast while the latter overlooked the prejudiced treatment of Muslims by the Modi government. This gave him further leverage to ignore and keep the pressure on Pakistan.

The pressing concern for Pakistan is whether Narendra Modi, in his third term as PM, will be any different or continue to keep the relations on hold. The fact that Sharifs, who now are in power, enjoy relatively better relations with Modi at the personal level makes any difference is yet to be seen. The response to the congratulatory message of Nawaz Sharif on Modi’s assumption of office was formal and gave no indication that the relations would improve.

But can India, as a rising power, remain oblivious to the fact that it undermines its stature by having inimical relations with its major neighbor? It reflects its inability to instill confidence in Pakistan’s leadership. Whether this is of any concern to Narendra Modi as long as he enjoys the support of the US and the West is not clear yet.

Can India, as a rising power, remain oblivious to the fact that it undermines its stature by having inimical relations with its major neighbor?

However, from a broader perspective, it is in the interest of the region if the stalemate between India and Pakistan is broken and the normalization process is re-animated, starting with dialogue to de-escalate tension. The initiative now rests with India as Pakistan has been in favor of engagement and opening up to promote trade, travel, and tourism. Perhaps there is not sufficient realization that normalization or even a reduction in tension between India and Pakistan and interactions, especially between military to military, would contribute to building mutual confidence and facilitating political dialogue.

What sort of legacy would Narendra Modi like to leave behind, especially in a nation with diverse cultures and different religions? Equally important, will there be any movement towards dialogue with Pakistan in his third term in office, or will the same stalemate continue? However, stalemate and absence of dialogue intensify antagonisms, especially when there are conflicting territorial claims of legitimacy, as is the case in the disputed state of Kashmir. Modi will have to reinvent his thinking to find amicable solutions to these major issues.