Perishing Paramatman

First, let me start by briefly sharing my opinion about the recent performance of the Pakistan cricket team in the 2024 Men’s T20 World Cup. Pakistan’s disgraceful cricket performance and the attempts of our cricket czars to shift blame from themselves to the players were just a few aspects of our beloved country’s increasingly comprehensive institutional and state failure. This, in turn, has been a function of irresponsible and unconstitutional governance more or less ever since the early departure of Quaid-e-Azam and Quaid-e-Millat and the subsequent judicial murder of an elected prime minister by a military usurper and his “band of brothers.” They were mortally afraid of the political comeback of their prisoner – not unlike the situation today.

The situation that occurred 53 years ago directly resulted from the only non-controversial election ever held in Pakistan. This was because the “Establishment” and the leader of the largest political party of West Pakistan were determined to deny the political leader elected by the majority of the national electorate the right to lead the country (East Pakistanis comprised 56 percent of Pakistan’s population). This betrayal led to the revolt and the genocidal suppression of the people of East Pakistan, whose leader incidentally enjoyed the support of the political leadership of at least two of the minority provinces of West Pakistan. This murder of united Pakistan in 1971 provided India, in the words of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, the opportunity to “avenge nine hundred years of history and throw the Two-Nation Theory into the Bay of Bengal!” She was wrong, of course, because Bangladesh chose to be an independent country instead of rejoining India. The two nations did not become one again – they became three. Nevertheless, this was the lowest point in more than a millennium of Muslim history in the subcontinent.

Tragically, the same tragedy is being repeated today in what is left of Pakistan. The February 8, 2024, general elections in Pakistan were among the most brazenly open “in your face” election steals ever conducted. The majority of the people braved all the threats and obstacles put in their way by the Establishment and its servants and goons and came out and voted for the person and party of their choice in what would almost certainly have been a landslide victory. In this respect, the young, the poor, and the women of Pakistan emulated the performance of their former East Pakistani compatriots half a century earlier. While the military crackdown in East Pakistan came a few months after the general election, in the recent elections in Pakistan, the vast majority of the electorate were forcibly and fraudulently robbed of their victory by the powers that be on the very night of the election itself. This pitiful “shabkhoon” (night assault) has rendered Pakistan the laughing stock and basket case of the world.

No criticism of Imran Khan can even begin to justify this crime against the people in a constitutional democracy. Nevertheless, some of the best legal minds in the country talk utter nonsense and factually lie when they try to justify such betrayal – and they know it. But they choose to be part of the problem rather than part of the solution. This is their version of pragmatism, realism, and professionalism, which amounts to being an accomplice to destroying their own country.

The foregoing provides the context for a Pakistani view of the recent general elections in India. In Pakistan, the electoral exercise was reduced to a planned betrayal of the people who will, nevertheless, never give up their struggle for their inalienable rights. In India, on the contrary, the recent elections highlighted the ability of its people to confront the supernatural pretensions of a genocidal communal maniac who sought to rule his country as a fascist autocrat.

Though Narender Modi won the elections for a third consecutive term, he has been reduced from his self-appointed status as an avatar of “Paramatman” (the Hindu absolute deity) to an all too mundane politician trying to disguise his political humiliation. Modi’s conceit measured not just his pathological ego but, more significantly, the extent of his contempt for India’s electorate, which has, in turn, rudely snubbed him.

In Pakistan, the people demonstrated their ability to similarly snub the wielders of illegitimate power. But they were immediately robbed of their victory as a result of a vile conspiracy – not without external encouragement - which also reflected comprehensive and progressive institutional and political degeneration over decades. In India, such degeneration has not occurred to the same extent because praetorian dominance of its politics is absent. Accordingly, Indians have good reason to celebrate their liberation, while Pakistanis have tragically once again been robbed of their birthright to freedom and liberty. But their faith enjoins hope, and accordingly, Pakistanis have every reason to be optimistic about the eventual triumph of their struggle against domestic oppressors and an external “frenemy” (half friend, half enemy) master.

As for Modi, he may be down, but he is not yet out. He is still Prime Minister. If he can make the transition from a mountebank fascist to a democratic politician, he may have a political future. If so, he could push a softer version of Hindutva, which has carefully orchestrated mass appeal among the Indian electorate (including many anti-BJP “secular” Hindus.) This is because they have, by and large, been nurtured by anti-Muslim narratives and encouraged to take vicarious pleasure in witnessing sorrow and pain inflicted upon their own Indian Muslim fellow citizens as vengeance for a millennium of Muslim rule and the “batwara” of “Bharat Mata.” Nevertheless, Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka, their “secular” supporters and coalition partners, and millions of democracy-loving Indians deserve congratulations for upholding the vision and possibility of a more tolerant and less communal India.

The question for Modi now is whether he can adapt to his reduced political status and provide leadership to the BJP to the satisfaction of the RSS and India to the satisfaction of the Indian electorate. Some observers feel he has neither the education nor the temperament to become a democratic politician and will, instead, seek to come back as a reinforced religious bigot by continuing to play upon the communal instincts of the Hindu majority. Meanwhile, he will face several challenges that could prevent him from heading a stable coalition government. Accordingly, it is far from clear that as a weakened prime minister, he can even serve out his third term.

The question for Modi now is whether he can adapt to his reduced political status and provide leadership to the BJP to the satisfaction of the RSS and India to the satisfaction of the Indian electorate.

There has been speculation that he may seek the Indian Presidency in two years and even campaign as a populist for a constitutional change in favour of a presidential form of government. This, however, is most unlikely since the present elections have indicated that in India today, state politics determine national electoral outcomes rather than national politics. The eastern, southern, and most of the coastal states have, by and large, shown they will not accept rule by a communal autocrat from Delhi. Nevertheless, renewed tensions with Pakistan could check this trend.

Foreign policy, however, will not be Modi’s immediate priority. Moreover, there is a fair degree of consensus on foreign policy, especially Pakistan policy, in India. The US will remain its principal strategic ally. China will continue to be the strategic adversary but, nonetheless, a possible option if the US becomes too overbearing in its attempts to bully India into its strategy for global hegemony or if China were to give up on Pakistan’s ability to be a reliable strategic partner. India will also not strain relations with Russia, which is allied with China against the global hegemonic pretensions of the US.

Pakistan no longer represents the challenge it once was for India. Its economy may eventually become attractive to Indian exporters and investors, but as long as it shows no signs of achieving political stability, this will not happen. The Kashmir dispute is effectively on hold, at least for the time being, because of the Pakistan Establishment’s irresponsible and repeated policy blunders, which have minimized the possibilities for negotiating a principled and mutually acceptable compromise settlement.

Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent has similarly been rendered more or less irrelevant as its credibility, and therefore usability, requires the continued build-up of Pakistan’s conventional military strength, which its odious debt-riddled economy can no longer sustain. Nevertheless, in the contest of “guns and butter,” elitist guns have always won out against the people’s bread and butter. Under the present dispensation in Pakistan, this will continue despite the delusory discourse of its economic experts.

Despite all of the above, Pakistan cannot afford to alienate both Kashmiri and domestic opinion by discarding its principled position on Kashmir. This includes its demand that India restores the status of Occupied Kashmir before August 5, 2019, for structured agenda-based talks and scaled-up trade and investment to become feasible. The Pakistan media have reported such a surrender. It is justified by the argument that Pakistan cannot win a war against India, as if standing up for human and political rights enshrined in international law and UN resolutions is a call for war and self-destruction. If such unprincipled and unnecessary surrender is pursued, it would inflame Kashmiri and Pakistani opinion and set the scene for the ouster of any government and power structure in Pakistan. A significant percentage of the urban population between Islamabad and Lahore claims to be of Kashmiri descent.

Meanwhile, any concessions to Pakistan on Kashmir for the sake of trade, investment, and dialogue will be a no-no for Modi. None of his coalition partners and the Congress-led opposition will press him with respect to improving relations with Pakistan. Nor will the US unless it succeeds in completely undermining the vital Pakistan-China relationship, signs of which have ominously surfaced.

Finally, even under the most optimistic political assumptions – which a de facto military dictatorship can never realize - Pakistan will still need almost a decade to extricate itself from its current state of failure and induce India to engage with it on principled and mutually beneficial terms.

Glimpse from the Glorious Past

Taken in 1949, this picture shows Mohtarma Fatima Jinnah visiting a class at Pakistan Military Academy, Kakul. She can be seen sitting behind GC Aziz Bhatti. A rare click indeed, this historic photograph beautifully depicts the simplicity of the classroom environment and the days of hope in the early years of Pakistan, along with the exuberance and great expectations of a new nation.

– SouthAsia Social Media Desk