Cover Story
Modi vs. Modi
Narendra Modi may be back in office for a third term, but the numbers supporting him dramatically differ from what he expected and what he’s grown accustomed to. He no longer has a majority, so he can no longer be authoritarian. But that is the critical question: Is he psychologically and temperamentally capable of being a consensual prime minister who depends upon allies to survive in office?
Narendra Modi has suddenly been asked to enact a role he has never done before. Unexpectedly, he is facing a situation where his arms may be twisted by his allies, who would want specific policies, decisions, and placements to align with their priorities to ensure that their voter base does not get upset. Modi will have to hold many more cabinet meetings to listen to the views of the ministers chosen from his allies. He will no longer dictate terms to the ministers to endorse the decisions made by the Prime Minister’s office.
Whether he can present a new Modi is difficult to answer. The need for a new Modi is the challenge the old Modi faces.
From childhood, Narendra Modi wanted the spotlight to always be on him. One of his teachers in school said that he liked to act in theatre plays as part of the annual school function. Since he first became the Gujarat Chief Minister and then the Prime Minister, Modi has never worked with people and has always been a domineering, towering political figure. However, as things currently stand, he is facing a situation where his allies may twist his arms. In Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party has a certain base among the religious minorities. Would they allow Modi to pursue the kind of majoritarian exclusivist policies? Would he be able to speak the language of polarization, which Modi spoke so much about throughout the entire campaign? Seemingly, Modi is not prepared for what he has to become now. It will be a big challenge, and I can confidently say he is now a broken person suffering from a profound sense of defeat since he never likes to be defeated and wants to win every game. In 2019, in Varanasi, he had a 4.8 lakh majority. That’s been reduced to just 1.52 lakhs. Clearly, the BJP has lost its majority, faring its worst performance in the last 10 years.
There’s no doubt that the NDA is in a position to form the government. But how comfortable will Narendra Modi be as prime minister when he’s dependent on support from Chandra Babu Naidu and Nitish Kumar? Will they want a money-making ministerial portfolio like finance and defense? Will they insist the speaker be from their party rather than the BJP? These are demands he’s not used to handling. He’s never had to face them before. He has never played a secondary role or been dictated to by others.
Let’s look a little further down the road. The critical question is, can Narendra Modi, both temperamentally and psychologically, adjust to the very different circumstances he now faces as Prime Minister? Is he psychologically ill-equipped to handle a coalition government where the BJP doesn’t have a majority?
He is a person who likes his way. He likes to dominate the others. He’s never had the reason to work with others and accommodate anybody else’s views since he became the Gujarat Chief Minister. That is going to be a tricky situation for Modi to handle. It’s not just that people within the Sangh Parivar will launch protests or movements against the government’s decisions. Modi could also face challenges from within his party because he’s now a weakened prime minister. He’s brought the BJP to its lowest point in 10 years. He, the BJP, and those in the party who aspire to take his job know that.
Other than the veterans who have been side-lined like L.K. Advani and Murali Manohar Joshi, we must be concerned about people who were part of his cabinet. Still, they weren’t pleased with the kind of secondary position given to them. In his first and second terms, Modi ran a highly centralized government where the PM office was possibly the strongest ever, and India saw the entire cabinet system of governance crumble under Modi.
Look at what he said during his election campaign and how they could come back to haunt him. He said he was not biologically born but sent by God to do God’s work, gifted with a divine energy. These are remarks that will now be thrown at his face repeatedly as God seems to have disowned his alleged messenger and turned his back on Narendra Modi. How will Modi handle these taunts flying around for the next four years? He’s now collapsed to the lowest point in his prime ministerial career in terms of numbers. About the taunts thrown at his face, he will no longer be the God who could dictate terms to others and to whom people will look up with reverence.
Modi once said, ‘I sometimes feel that I have come back to the material world.’
This particular quote was picked up by Christophe Jaffrelot in his book on Modi’s Gujarat. Now, the second controversial statement made by Modi during the campaign was to call Muslims ‘ghusbatiyo’ (intruders) and that they are people who have more children than the rest of us. He also repeatedly said Muslims would benefit from reservations snatched from OBCs, SCs, and STs, thus deliberately demonizing Muslims in Hindu eyes. Is he capable of changing his rhetoric towards Muslims, or will the past rhetoric trap him?
Whether he can present a new Modi is difficult to answer. The need for a new Modi is the challenge the old Modi faces.
We don’t think he will ever be able to get out of this because this has been his second nature from the beginning. From the time that he was the Gujarat Chief Minister and the Gujarat riots happened, he became the electorally dominant leader of Gujarat primarily only because of the Gujarat riots. From that time onwards, he has always resorted to Islamophobic speeches. Even in the 2002 elections, he referred to the riot relief camps set up for Muslims as ‘baby-producing factories.’ Throughout the 2014 election, he kept referring to Rahul Gandhi as Shahzada, which was also repeated in the 2024 election. He also referred to the UPA government as the ‘Delhi Sultanate.’ So, it is second nature to him using Islamophobic phrases.
The deliberate communalisation of his election campaign has backfired in states like UP and Bengal, which have a sizable Muslim population. In 1971, Modi cut his teeth in the RSS, and now he has spent half a century in this communal rhetoric, looking at the minorities as not the real Indian citizens unless they are willing to accept that they too are Hindus, which the RSS keeps on saying that everybody in India is a Hindu. You can be a follower of Islam, but you have to accept the fact that, culturally, you are a Hindu. That is the entire framework of cultural nationalism, the ideology of the RSS. Since 2014, there have been many instances where communal polarization has not worked. However, Modi tries to polarize the voters communally whenever there is an election.
One of the critical characteristics of Modi’s rhetoric, particularly during the 2024 election campaign, was his attack on the opposition. He called them casteist, communal, and corrupt. Within this, he was particularly personal and nasty about the Gandhi family. It’s been more than two decades that he’s used such language. In the 2002 elections, he said, ‘Soniya Behen is a Jersey cow, and Rahul is a hybrid calf.’ He repeated it later on.
When it comes to Modi’s attitude to key autonomous institutions like parliament, the judiciary, and the media, he has often ignored parliament during the last 10 years. He’s held up judicial appointments and been dismissive of the media.
The marginalization of the media started right from his Gujarat days. Let us not forget the fact that in Gujarat, there was a tradition started by Keshubhai Patel where journalists in Ahmedabad would gather every morning at a place at a government office and be taken in a government bus to Gandhinagar, which is about 20 odd kilometres. They would do their work throughout the day, and in the evening, at a designated time, they would all be brought back to Ahmedabad.
That was the facility that was granted to journalists. That was Modi’s first stop after becoming the chief minister in 2001. So, the idea that the media is not an adversary is necessary in a democracy, but that idea does not sit well in Modi’s mind. Earlier, he had problems with the judiciary and also undermined parliamentary procedures. There has been minimal scrutiny of bills tabled by the government or the standing committees. All those practices have entirely come to a stop. Modi also inaugurated the parliament building and laid the foundation for the new parliament building. Under the constitution, the prime minister’s office has no role to play in the functioning of parliament. So, his desire to be everywhere and the only face of government is proven by the number of inaugurations he’s done multiple times. It shows that is essentially what Mr. Advani had said: Modi is an excellent event manager, and the fact will also haunt him. The talk of a new India would go in the background, and we will see the necessity of having a new Modi. Will he be able to present a new Modi? The need for a new Modi is the challenge the old Modi faces.
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