Islamabad
Great Expectations
Does the Uraan Pakistan (UP) initiative have the capacity to achieve its most ambitious targets? The answer is obvious: absolutely not.
The Uraan Pakistan (UP) initiative, unveiled by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on the last eve of 2024, is a bold five-year plan to transform Pakistan’s economy. This National Economic Transformation Plan is designed to drive sustainable growth and ensure macroeconomic stability. It focuses on the “5Es” framework: boosting Exports, advancing E-Pakistan through digital transformation, addressing ‘Environment’ challenges like food and water security, improving Energy and Infrastructure, and promoting Equity, Ethics, and Empowerment.
The ‘Export’ pillar of UP seeks to transform Pakistan into an export-driven economy with an annual target of $60 billion by 2028. Rebranding “Made in Pakistan” as a global standard is a central goal. The ‘E-Pakistan’ pillar targets expanding the ICT freelancing industry to $5 billion, producing 200,000 IT graduates annually, and fostering a robust startup ecosystem. Under the ‘Environment’ pillar, the task is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and assure reforestation and biodiversity protection. The ‘Energy’ pillar of the initiative includes increasing renewable energy share to 10% and reducing circular debt. The ‘Equity, Ethics, Empowerment’ pillar promotes inclusivity, aiming to enhance universal health coverage, literacy rates, and women’s labour force participation while reducing youth unemployment.
UP initiative presents an ambitious and multifaceted approach to addressing Pakistan’s longstanding economic challenges. However, the success of such a comprehensive plan hinges on several critical factors. To comprehend it, we need to take some evidence from history, where such super thrilled initiatives failed and reasons are an open secret. Here are a few examples.
During former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s tenure, the Yellow Cab Scheme, launched in the 1990s and later revived, aimed to combat unemployment by providing subsidized vehicles. However, it suffered from poor planning, favouritism, and lack of proper beneficiary selection, leading to widespread misuse. Similarly, the Pakistan Education Reforms Programme faced setbacks due to inadequate teacher training, political interference, and insufficient infrastructure development. Likewise, Pakistan’s Vision 2025 was launched in 2014 by the government of the same party. This initiative aimed to transform Pakistan into one of the top 25 economies globally by 2025. Key focus areas included energy, infrastructure, and human development. The data for 2024 from the World Economic Database tells that Pakistan’s position at per capita income ranks 161st by GDP (nominal) and 138th by GDP (PPP). We are not even among the top 100. The promises of CPEC’s social development goals are not near to meet.
During General Pervez Musharraf’s tenure, the Roshan Pakistan Program, aimed at addressing the country’s chronic energy crisis and eventual disappointment, failed to resolve load-shedding issues. Additionally, the National Reconstruction Bureau (NRB), intended to decentralize governance through local government reforms, faced criticism for weakening traditional governance structures without establishing effective replacements, leading to administrative inefficiencies. Although it is claimed to be successful, the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) failed to tackle systemic poverty.
During former prime minister Imran Khan’s tenure, the “Kamyab Jawan Program” struggled with limited outreach, slow disbursement of funds, and lack of coordination with vocational training institutions. Similarly, the Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme, intended to provide affordable housing, failed to meet targets due to unrealistic timelines, land acquisition issues, and limited private-sector participation. The Ehsas Ration Program also fell short, as logistical inefficiencies and improper beneficiary identification led to resource misallocation. The National IT Policy 2000 aimed to digitize Pakistan’s economy but fell short of its goals.
There could be multiple reasons for the minimal progress in these programs, but the most considerable are disruption in political transitions, lack of clear monitoring mechanisms, resource mismanagement, limited human capital, insufficient collaboration with private-sector tech leaders, lack of data accuracy, inadequate impact assessment frameworks, delays in funding, poor local governance, insufficient public-private partnerships. Indeed, these failures underscore the importance of strong governance, stakeholder coordination, sustainable resource allocation, and policy continuity. Have the architects of the Uraan Program found a solution to address the concerns above? The answer seems obvious: not really.
Let’s take a closer look at the potential of the Uraan Program to deliver results. The first question is: do we have the capacity to implement it effectively? Achieving success will require strong institutional frameworks and seamless coordination among government agencies, private sector players, and international partners. While the creation of the National Economic Transformation Unit (NETU) is a step in the right direction, how can we be confident it will deliver tangible outcomes? Does the government have the resolve to cut through red tape and hold civil bureaucrats - commonly referred to as BABUs—accountable for poor performance?
Consistent political commitment across successive administrations is crucial to ensuring policy continuity and maintaining investor confidence. For the Uraan Program to succeed, “petty politics” must be set aside in favour of national economic progress. However, the recent actions against a major political force send a troubling signal, casting a shadow of hopelessness over these efforts.
Meeting the goals of the Uraan Program will require substantial financial investments, both locally and internationally. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays a critical role in boosting Pakistan’s GDP growth. According to State Bank data, total FDI from private and public sources was $4,582 million in 2021 but dropped significantly to $1,857 million and $600 million in 2022 and 2023, respectively. While 2024 saw a slight surge to $1,962 million, the real question is: how sustainable is this growth?
Another major obstacle is and will be the dominance of few. Elite capture undermines social development programs by diverting resources and decision-making power to a privileged few, often at the expense of marginalized communities. It fosters inequality, weakens public trust, and skews program priorities. As our society is swelling into a power-distant culture, we must raise fundamental questions about power-sharing and resource distribution.
Is the present government ready, or does it have the capacity to do all this? Again, the answer is obvious: absolutely not. Therefore, this UP ambition will remain nothing more than a distant dream, like the fantasy of a delude.
The writer is a columnist and broadcast journalist based in Lahore. He teaches at UVAS Business School, Lahore, and can be reached at mali.hamza@yahoo.com
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