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cooperation and confrontation

US sanctions on Pakistan’s missile programme are emblematic of the complex and evolving strategic landscape shaped by the growing confrontation between the US and China.

By Ambassador (R) Naghmana A Hashmi | February 2025

cooperation and confrontation
The geopolitical landscape of South Asia is marked by complexity, particularly in the relationship between Pakistan and the United States, which has historically oscillated between cooperation and confrontation. The imposition of sanctions is not a new phenomenon in this relationship. The Pressler Amendment of 1985 and subsequent sanctions in the 1990s serve as historical precedents, prompting Pakistan to adopt a more self-reliant approach to its defence and strategic capabilities. In this context, the latest sanctions can be seen as part of a broader pattern of the US and not solely a reaction to Pakistan’s military advancement, particularly in the realm of missile technology, but also influenced by the US’s strategic rivalry with China, which is enhancing its influence in South Asia through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The latest sanctions have reignited debates surrounding national security, sovereignty, and the trajectory of bilateral relations. The historical backdrop of US-Pakistan relations, the dynamics of regional security, and the implications of Sino-Pakistani cooperation elucidates how the US sanctions reflect a complex interplay of strategic considerations that extend beyond bilateral relations.

As China bolsters its partnership with Pakistan, the US perceives this as a direct challenge to its interests, prompting sanctions aimed at curtailing Pakistan’s military capabilities and limiting Sino-Pakistani cooperation. The sanctions reflect broader US strategic calculations to reassure allies in the region, such as India and Japan, while navigating the complexities of its rivalry with China. Overall, these developments highlight the intricate interplay of historical relations, regional security dynamics, and the evolving strategic landscape in South Asia, suggesting that the implications of these sanctions will extend beyond US-Pakistan relations to influence the future of regional security architecture.

The US-Pakistan bilateral relationship has been historically complex. From a strategic partner to a non-NATO Ally in the Cold War era to the most sectioned country. The 1998 nuclear tests by Pakistan, which were conducted in response to India’s own tests, marked a significant turning point, prompting the US to impose sanctions under the Glenn Amendment. In the post-9/11 era, the US once again sought Pakistan’s cooperation, primarily for counterterrorism efforts. This period saw a temporary thaw in relations, but the underlying issues of proliferation and military development remained contentious. The 2018 sanctions against Pakistan’s missile programme were a continuation of this historical narrative, where US concerns over proliferation are intertwined with its strategic calculations in the context of an ascendant China.

China’s rise as a global power has had profound implications for the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has facilitated extensive economic investment in Pakistan, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which has solidified the strategic partnership between the two countries. Washington sees this growing Sino-Pakistani alliance as a direct challenge to US interests in the region, as it not only enhances Pakistan’s military capabilities but also provides China with a critical foothold in South Asia.

The US has viewed this partnership with increasing alarm, as it directly undermines American influence and strategic objectives. The transfer of missile technology and military equipment from China to Pakistan is particularly concerning for US policymakers, who perceive it as a means for Pakistan to enhance its deterrent capabilities against India, thereby complicating regional security dynamics. As a result, US sanctions can be seen as an effort to disrupt this Sino-Pakistani collaboration and limit the technological advancements that could threaten American interests in the region.

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