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cooperation and confrontation
US sanctions on Pakistan’s missile programme are emblematic of the complex and evolving strategic landscape shaped by the growing confrontation between the US and China.
The geopolitical landscape of South Asia is marked by complexity, particularly in the relationship between Pakistan and the United States, which has historically oscillated between cooperation and confrontation. The imposition of sanctions is not a new phenomenon in this relationship. The Pressler Amendment of 1985 and subsequent sanctions in the 1990s serve as historical precedents, prompting Pakistan to adopt a more self-reliant approach to its defence and strategic capabilities. In this context, the latest sanctions can be seen as part of a broader pattern of the US and not solely a reaction to Pakistan’s military advancement, particularly in the realm of missile technology, but also influenced by the US’s strategic rivalry with China, which is enhancing its influence in South Asia through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The latest sanctions have reignited debates surrounding national security, sovereignty, and the trajectory of bilateral relations. The historical backdrop of US-Pakistan relations, the dynamics of regional security, and the implications of Sino-Pakistani cooperation elucidates how the US sanctions reflect a complex interplay of strategic considerations that extend beyond bilateral relations.
As China bolsters its partnership with Pakistan, the US perceives this as a direct challenge to its interests, prompting sanctions aimed at curtailing Pakistan’s military capabilities and limiting Sino-Pakistani cooperation. The sanctions reflect broader US strategic calculations to reassure allies in the region, such as India and Japan, while navigating the complexities of its rivalry with China. Overall, these developments highlight the intricate interplay of historical relations, regional security dynamics, and the evolving strategic landscape in South Asia, suggesting that the implications of these sanctions will extend beyond US-Pakistan relations to influence the future of regional security architecture.
The US-Pakistan bilateral relationship has been historically complex. From a strategic partner to a non-NATO Ally in the Cold War era to the most sectioned country. The 1998 nuclear tests by Pakistan, which were conducted in response to India’s own tests, marked a significant turning point, prompting the US to impose sanctions under the Glenn Amendment. In the post-9/11 era, the US once again sought Pakistan’s cooperation, primarily for counterterrorism efforts. This period saw a temporary thaw in relations, but the underlying issues of proliferation and military development remained contentious. The 2018 sanctions against Pakistan’s missile programme were a continuation of this historical narrative, where US concerns over proliferation are intertwined with its strategic calculations in the context of an ascendant China.
China’s rise as a global power has had profound implications for the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has facilitated extensive economic investment in Pakistan, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which has solidified the strategic partnership between the two countries. Washington sees this growing Sino-Pakistani alliance as a direct challenge to US interests in the region, as it not only enhances Pakistan’s military capabilities but also provides China with a critical foothold in South Asia.
The US has viewed this partnership with increasing alarm, as it directly undermines American influence and strategic objectives. The transfer of missile technology and military equipment from China to Pakistan is particularly concerning for US policymakers, who perceive it as a means for Pakistan to enhance its deterrent capabilities against India, thereby complicating regional security dynamics. As a result, US sanctions can be seen as an effort to disrupt this Sino-Pakistani collaboration and limit the technological advancements that could threaten American interests in the region.
The imposition of sanctions on Pakistan’s missile programme must be understood within the framework of US strategic calculations in the context of its rivalry with China. The US has consistently sought to undermine the military capabilities of countries that align with China, viewing such alignments as a threat to its hegemony. Sanctions serve as a tool to exert pressure on Pakistan, compelling it to reconsider its military partnerships with China and to adhere to non-proliferation norms.
Moreover, the sanctions reflect a broader strategy to reinforce alliances with countries in the region that are wary of China’s growing influence. By applying pressure on Pakistan, the US aims to reassure its traditional allies, such as India and Japan, of its commitment to regional stability and security. This dynamic is evident in the increased military cooperation between the US and India, which has been framed as a counterbalance to China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.
In conclusion, US sanctions on Pakistan’s missile programme are emblematic of the complex and evolving strategic landscape shaped by the growing confrontation between the United States and China. While the sanctions are ostensibly aimed at curbing missile proliferation, they also serve broader geopolitical objectives, reflecting the US’s efforts to maintain its influence in South Asia amidst China’s ascendance. The interplay of historical relations, regional security dynamics, and strategic calculations underscores the multifaceted nature of this issue. As the US and China continue to navigate their rivalry, the implications of these sanctions will likely resonate beyond the immediate context of US-Pakistan relations, shaping the future of regional security architecture in South Asia.
In response to US sanctions, the Pakistani government has articulated a comprehensive strategy that includes diplomatic condemnation, military reinforcement, and a shift towards alternative alliances. Official statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have denounced the sanctions as unilateral and detrimental to regional stability, reflecting a narrative of sovereignty and national pride. Militarily, Pakistan has reaffirmed its commitment to a credible deterrent against perceived threats, particularly from India, framing the sanctions as a motivation to enhance its domestic defence capabilities.
The country’s strategic alignment with China, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), offers an alternative source of military support and mitigates US influence. This evolving dynamic raises concerns about an arms race in South Asia, given India’s own missile advancements, and could push Pakistan closer to Iran, potentially reshaping regional alliances. Overall, Pakistan’s multifaceted response highlights the complex interplay between sovereignty and security within international relations, with implications that could reverberate throughout South Asia, influencing geopolitical stability and alliances.
Based in Islamabad, the writer served as Ambassador of Pakistan to China, the European Union, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Ireland from 1993 to 2020. She can be reached at naghmanahashmi40@gmail.com
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