New Delhi

Modi 3.0

The prospects of Narendra Modi’s third term as prime minister hinge on his ability to sustain economic growth, expand infrastructure, and attract global investment.

By Dr. Rajkumar Singh | November 2024

Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India for the third consecutive time in 2024. However, for the first time in his political career, he will have to rule through a coalition government. In the run-up to the elections, every exit poll and Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) internal numbers had predicted a single majority party, largely in line with Modi’s landslide victory in 2019.

Instead, the BJP lost 63 seats and won only 240 seats in India’s general elections. It remains the single-largest party in the lower house of parliament but well short of the 272-seat halfway mark. With other members of its National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the ruling coalition has a comfortable 292-seat majority. In the coming days, the BJP will have to rely mainly on two regional parties, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Janata Dal United (JDU), to pass legislation. Neither have national aspirations and largely support Modi and his economic reform agenda.

With a renewed focus on infrastructure development, education, and healthcare, Modi’s agenda focuses on economic reforms, attracting global investments, Aatmanirbhar Bharat, technology-driven growth, and strengthening India’s global influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. He is only the second Indian leader to have been elected three times in succession, matching the record of the first post-independence prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.

The BJP must navigate political complexities with its allies in a coalition government while maintaining stability. Modi’s government’s key precautions to ensure smooth functioning include regular consultations with coalition partners to ensure their voices are heard. Different regional parties may have competing interests. The BJP ensures allies feel valued to prevent discontent and defections. The BJP has held regular meetings with allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), especially with parties like the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) and JDU (until the 2022 split).
Coalition partners rely heavily on regional voters. Hence, the BJP must balance national priorities with their demands. For example, careful negotiation on contentious topics like the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) or farm laws, especially with regional allies dependent on rural votes.

Building consensus within the coalition on sensitive policies is also crucial since unilateral decisions can alienate smaller allies. For instance, during Modi’s second term, the farm law protests highlighted the risks of insufficient consultation. Sensitive policies like privatization and reservations are discussed to prevent backlash.

Offering ministerial portfolios or critical roles to the government’s allies is necessary to ensure that allies have vested interests in the government’s success and remain loyal. Ministries like Agriculture or Food Processing are often allocated to regional parties to strengthen their base.

Not all NDA allies are comfortable with the BJP’s Hindutva-driven agenda. Adjustments were made in states like Bihar (when JDU was part of the NDA) to avoid friction over communal issues. Managing election seat-sharing agreements is necessary because seat-sharing conflicts can lead to break-ups, as seen in Maharashtra with the original Shiv Sena. BJP has strategically formed alliances in southern states (like Tamil Nadu) to expand its footprint while retaining existing partners in UP and Northeast India. These precautions reflect Modi’s experience in managing a large and ideologically diverse coalition while pushing forward with his government’s developmental and political agenda.

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