New Delhi
Modi 3.0
The prospects of Narendra Modi’s third term as prime minister hinge on his ability to sustain economic growth, expand infrastructure, and attract global investment.
Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India for the third consecutive time in 2024. However, for the first time in his political career, he will have to rule through a coalition government. In the run-up to the elections, every exit poll and Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) internal numbers had predicted a single majority party, largely in line with Modi’s landslide victory in 2019.
Instead, the BJP lost 63 seats and won only 240 seats in India’s general elections. It remains the single-largest party in the lower house of parliament but well short of the 272-seat halfway mark. With other members of its National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the ruling coalition has a comfortable 292-seat majority. In the coming days, the BJP will have to rely mainly on two regional parties, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Janata Dal United (JDU), to pass legislation. Neither have national aspirations and largely support Modi and his economic reform agenda.
With a renewed focus on infrastructure development, education, and healthcare, Modi’s agenda focuses on economic reforms, attracting global investments, Aatmanirbhar Bharat, technology-driven growth, and strengthening India’s global influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. He is only the second Indian leader to have been elected three times in succession, matching the record of the first post-independence prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.
The BJP must navigate political complexities with its allies in a coalition government while maintaining stability. Modi’s government’s key precautions to ensure smooth functioning include regular consultations with coalition partners to ensure their voices are heard. Different regional parties may have competing interests. The BJP ensures allies feel valued to prevent discontent and defections. The BJP has held regular meetings with allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), especially with parties like the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) and JDU (until the 2022 split).
Coalition partners rely heavily on regional voters. Hence, the BJP must balance national priorities with their demands. For example, careful negotiation on contentious topics like the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) or farm laws, especially with regional allies dependent on rural votes.
Building consensus within the coalition on sensitive policies is also crucial since unilateral decisions can alienate smaller allies. For instance, during Modi’s second term, the farm law protests highlighted the risks of insufficient consultation. Sensitive policies like privatization and reservations are discussed to prevent backlash.
Offering ministerial portfolios or critical roles to the government’s allies is necessary to ensure that allies have vested interests in the government’s success and remain loyal. Ministries like Agriculture or Food Processing are often allocated to regional parties to strengthen their base.
Not all NDA allies are comfortable with the BJP’s Hindutva-driven agenda. Adjustments were made in states like Bihar (when JDU was part of the NDA) to avoid friction over communal issues. Managing election seat-sharing agreements is necessary because seat-sharing conflicts can lead to break-ups, as seen in Maharashtra with the original Shiv Sena. BJP has strategically formed alliances in southern states (like Tamil Nadu) to expand its footprint while retaining existing partners in UP and Northeast India. These precautions reflect Modi’s experience in managing a large and ideologically diverse coalition while pushing forward with his government’s developmental and political agenda.
In the early stages of Narendra Modi’s third term, his government focused on infrastructure development and economic growth. Notable achievements include approving projects worth ₹3 lakh crore, emphasizing road, port, and airport expansion, along with initiatives like the Polavaram irrigation project in Andhra Pradesh. The government also promotes agricultural and fishery-related schemes, such as the Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana, to boost fisheries and exports.
In the administration sphere, the government has had to recalibrate some of its policy decisions, notably withdrawing a bill on broadcasting regulation and a proposal for lateral entries into government roles. These changes highlight the coalition nature of Modi’s government, which now requires balancing the interests of allies to maintain stability. It has also launched public outreach efforts, including blood donation drives and exhibitions, to commemorate key milestones, such as Prime Minister Modi’s 74th birthday and 100 days in office.
Additionally, the government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.5% by 2026 to attract foreign investment. However, some budget cuts in health and education have been made, drawing criticism from opposition parties. Modi’s government’s prospects hinge on its ability to sustain economic growth, expand infrastructure, and attract global investment.
Key focus areas include promoting Aatmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India), improving infrastructure like roads and ports, and fostering renewable energy. Success also depends on managing regional alliances and addressing domestic challenges, including inflation and employment. However, balancing fiscal discipline with public spending will be critical to maintaining investor confidence while meeting social needs.
The future of Modi’s Hindutva agenda in his third term appears to be one of careful calibration. While core initiatives, such as the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) and promoting Hindu cultural identity, are likely to advance, the government may tread cautiously to avoid alienating regional allies in the coalition.
The writer is Professor and Head of the Department of Political Science as well as Dean, Faculty of Social Sciences at the Bhupendra Narayan Mandal University in Madhepura, Bihar. He can be reached at rajkumarsinghpg@gmail.com
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