Feature 
 

Climate Change

Earth on Fire

Addressing the challenges of wildfires and heat waves requires coordinated efforts at local, national, and global levels.

By Prof. S. Shafiq ur Rehman | November 2024


As the temperature records show, the global temperatures are soaring fast-track like an uncontrollable ‘runaway train’ with no brakes. 1998, which closed as the warmest year of the 20th century with +0.63 ºC above the pre-industrial global mean surface air temperature 1850-1900. Since then, the ascending trend has continued through 2023 with 0.7 ºC in 2005, 0.73 ºC in 2010, 0.77 ºC in 2014, 0.92 ºC in 2015, 1.03 ºC in 2016, and 1.18 ºC in 2023. Consequently, the world has seen several new highest temperature records for different countries such as Pakistan recorded 53.7 ºC in 2017, India 52.3 ºC in 2024, Algeria 51.3 ºC in 2018, Australia 50.7 ºC in 2022, Canada 49.6 ºC in 2021, Turkey 49.1ºC in 2021, Italy 48.8 ºC in 2021, Thailand 45.4 ºC in 2023, Guinea 45.0 ºC in 2017, and Brazil 44.8 ºC in 2020.

The obvious logical outcome of the soaring heat, particularly in highly populated urban centers with numerous industrial units and heavy transport, temporarily creates heat islands where the excess temperature is trapped due to high atmospheric pressure. This situation creates a heatwave that may last up to a week and often quickly turns into life-threatening conditions in the form of heatstroke, sunstroke, or dehydration. Wildfires occur when scorching heat prevails in arid climatic conditions over a stretch of time through intentional or accidental ignition. These phenomena cause widespread environmental destruction and pose significant risks to human health, economies, and social stability. Given the steady rise in global surface air temperature, extreme weather events, including heat waves and wildfires, have become the new normal in summers from 60º N to 60º South latitude.

During the last two decades, the world has witnessed several severe heat waves resulting in health impacts on over 70,000 people. The 2002 heat wave in India lasted from May 9-15, when the daily maximum temperature rose to 50 ºC in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, where 1030 people lost their lives. The worst known European heat wave of June-August 2003 affected several countries and caused the deaths of 15,000 people in France, 2000 in the U.K., 2100 in Portugal, 3100 in Italy, 1500 in Holland, and 300 in Germany. The Russian heat wave struck in the summer of 2010 when temperatures shot up to 40 ºC, leading to about 56,000 deaths. The 2015 heat wave in India lasted from May 24-30, 2015, affecting Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana states of southeast India and killing 2300 people. In Pakistan, the southernmost city of Karachi was hit by a deadly heat wave that lasted from June 24-30, 2015, and caused about 1300 deaths.

Some of the most devastating wildfires since the beginning of this century are also mentioned in this context, such as the late February 2024 Texas wildfires that burnt 1.1 million acres of land, the 2019-2020 Australian Black Summer bushfires in New South Wales and Queensland that seared not only 42 million acres of land but also thousands of houses and about 3 billion animals. In the summer of 2014 over 150 wildfires in northwest Canada inflamed 8.5 m acres of land. The Richardson Backcountry Fire broke out in May 2011 in the Canadian province of Alberta. It destroyed 1.7 million acres of boreal forest, the August 2010 Bolivian Forest fires smoldered 3.7 m acres of land, and in 2003, a series of highly devastating blazes in the taiga forests of Eastern Siberia destroyed over 55 million acres of land. Pakistan is no exception, with hundreds of fires, particularly in 2010 and 2022.

As discussed above, the primary driving force behind the increasing intensity and frequency of wildfires and heat waves is hot and dry weather. It has far-reaching consequences for weather patterns and environmental conditions. As temperatures rise, the evaporation rate from soils, plants, and water bodies increases. This leads to drier conditions, particularly in regions already susceptible to drought. When vegetation becomes dry, it acts as fuel for wildfires, which increases the risk of wildfires in areas experiencing prolonged heat and drought. The combination of heat and dryness creates a feedback loop, where dry conditions lead to more intense fires, releasing more CO2 into the atmosphere and further exacerbating global warming


Other contributory atmospheric processes that enhance the risk of heat waves and wildfires include wind circulation patterns and the El Nino effect. Anticyclones, high-pressure systems, lead to more extended periods of hot and dry weather by trapping warm air in a region, more so because of climate change. These systems prevent the formation of clouds and precipitation, leading to clear skies and intense sunlight, which dries out the landscape, creating ideal conditions for heat waves and wildfires. Strong winds can carry embers over long distances, igniting new fires far from the original source. Climate change influences wind patterns, making some regions more prone to extreme fire. While climate change sets the stage for more frequent and severe wildfires and heatwaves, human activities often act as catalysts that ignite and exacerbate these events.

Likewise, catalytic human activities like land use change, deforestation, urban sprawls, and even agriculture can increase the likelihood of wildfires. Moreover, cleared lands often become drier and increase the risk of fires. Urban expansion into wildland areas, known as the wildland-urban interface, increases the risk of human-caused fires and puts more lives and properties at risk. Activities like unattended campfires, discarded cigarettes, power lines, and arson are frequent causes of wildfires. In addition, agricultural practices, such as slash-and-burn farming, can lead to uncontrolled fires. In many regions, most wildfires are started by human activities, highlighting the need for better fire prevention and education efforts. Lightning is a natural ignition source for wildfires. During thunderstorms, lightning strikes can ignite dry vegetation, starting fires in remote areas. While we cannot control lightning, climate change influences the frequency and intensity of thunderstorms, potentially increasing the number of lightning-caused wildfires.

The impacts of wildfires and heatwaves are multifaceted, affecting the environment, human health, economies, and social stability. Wildfires cause significant environmental damage by destroying forests, habitats, and biodiversity. Forests act as carbon sinks, absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. When they burn, they release stored carbon, contributing to global warming. Additionally, the loss of vegetation increases the risk of soil erosion and can lead to long-term ecosystem changes.

Addressing the challenges of wildfires and heat waves requires coordinated efforts at local, national, and global levels. Mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial for addressing the root cause of increasing heat waves and wildfires. Transitioning to renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, and adopting sustainable land-use practices are essential to reducing emissions and slowing global warming.

Read More