What India passed off as just an accident could have sparked a major war.
BySyed Zain Abbas Rizvi | October 2022
We live in a world where just a hint of subversion leads to full-blown invasions. In an era when we are witnessing a proliferation of inflammatory rhetoric in Europe and the Pacific, the episode of a supposedly ‘accidental’ missile launch from India into Pakistan is a problematic affair on multiple fronts. Even discounting the Indo-Pak historical timeline rife with military tensions, the mere premise of a missile launch from one nuclear-armed nation into a neighbouring counterpart is an alarming omen for the region - and the world at large. Yet the actual incident is wrapped into a reality even more precarious than it currently appears. And a lack of diplomatic connection is now revealing the risky downsides, downplayed since 2019 but alluding to be a wake-up call for respective countries.
The notorious missile launch has been frequently discussed in the Pakistani fora, hammered to the point of retention. Ironically, the topic has remained elusive in the national debate of Indian polity. The intriguing start to the conversation was from Pakistan, not India, which mystifies the basic scenario. According to the Indian Ministry of Defence, the missile launched “on 9 March 2022, [was] in the course of a routine maintenance, a technical malfunction.” But it took them two days to ascertain a launch gone awry? The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) - the Media and PR wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces - had already revealed in a late-night press conference that a “high-speed flying object” had crashed in the city of Mian Channu, Khanewal. The ISPR spokesperson also stressed that the launch likely originated from the northern Indian city of Sirsa, proximate to New Delhi. Yet it took two days of inane silence to loosely claim: “It [is] learnt that the missile landed in an area of Pakistan.” As a dispassionate scholar of international politics, I am appalled by the callousness of Indian authorities in the face of sparking a potential military conflict.
In the parliamentary proceedings, Rajnath Singh - the Defence Minister of India - ostensibly quelled the national political sentiment by assuring that “a review of the Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for operations, maintenance and inspections is being conducted in the wake of this incident.” However, the offer of a joint probe extended by Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) was conveniently dogged. Expectedly, Pakistan categorically rejected the outcome of the Count of Inquiry set up by the Indian Air Force, dismissing three officers on the charge of “deviation from the SOPs [leading to] the accidental firing of the missile.” Even reviewing the incident sans the drifting account of the Indian authorities, barring the tepid response reflected by the Pakistani brass, we need to ask ourselves as impartial observers of foreign affairs: Is it enough to close this chapter and move forward?
Regardless of nationality, being an Indian patriot or a Pakistani compatriot, this incident underscores the holes in our collective defence and highlights our diplomatic ineptitude. Instead of mutually assured military hotlines, the matters of national defence are routinely discussed over commercial media broadcasts on either side of the border. The Indian boasters have welcomed the incident, commending India’s dereliction of responsibility as a democratic state. Pakistani fanatics have raved about the clattering Indian rhetoric. Yet no one is paying heed to the contingencies that could emanate from this scenario.
Regardless of nationality, being an Indian patriot or a Pakistani compatriot, this incident underscores the holes in our collective defence and highlights our diplomatic ineptitude.
In 1991, India and Pakistan signed the Airspace Agreement, also known as the Agreement on the Prevention of Air Space Violations. Under the covenant, both nations have an obligation that “if any inadvertent [airspace] violation does take place, the incident [will be] promptly investigated and the Headquarters (HQ) of the other Air Force informed of the results without delay, through diplomatic channels.” The Indian-fired supersonic cruise missile BrahMos flew approximately 124km (77 miles) in Pakistani airspace before crashing. Yet no diplomatic hotline was invoked. On the contrary, there was a two-day delay in official acknowledgment of the actual occurrence despite the late-night press conference by the ISPR. It either shows utter trivialization of the concerns of national security on India’s part or complete ignorance of its military manoeuvres. I do not expect either scenario from a nuclear-armed state. And it should patently scare the policymakers within and without.
The Indian populace celebrating the missile launch into Pakistan should realize the gravity of the situation. If I were to accept the explanation offered by the Indian authorities, it should be a graver sign of concern for Indian citizens rather than the Pakistani military. According to Pakistan’s military directorate, the missile trajectory was traced near the Indian city of Suratgarh, later tilting southwards in the direction of Pakistan. An errant supersonic projectile that takes days to ascertain could potentially wreak havoc in populated vicinity within India. The offhand display of inquiry by the Indian forces should evoke a sense of panic instead of pride and praise. It should raise serious questions about the safety and security protocols, command and control mechanisms, nuclear installations, and delivery systems regulated by the Indian Army.
The Pakistani response has also been lukewarm and highly disappointing. The opacity of Indian rhetoric should have been a reality check for the region (and the rest of the world). But it was Pakistan’s job to project the gravity of this incident. Admittedly, Pakistan proved that it prefers detente in the continent over fanning hostility. I also applaud the offer of a joint probe which reflected a sense of mutual responsibility that was shamefully absent from the Indian corner. However, rejecting the Indian narrative is not enough! Time and again, Indian brutality has only breached expectations - whether in Kashmir or Gujarat - and a strongly-worded statement or a diplomatic demarche has rarely worked as a substantive measure. The Pakistani Parliament should have high-handedly requested the international community to address the issue as a collective unit. It should have used the Russian offensive against Ukraine as a backdrop to urge global backlash against this provocative action. And it should have even appealed to the UN Security Council to convene an emergency session. We need to accept that some part of India’s cavalier response, to some extent, could also be a result of the lack of conviction from Pakistan.
I am relieved that the missile crash caused no damage or harm in Pakistan. It could be one of the reasons why the Pakistani authorities only responded with scorn and verbal warnings. However, this incident should be a watershed in the relations between the two countries. We have already fought three wars and wrested in a myriad of combats. But we have never even fully grasped the idea of a nuclear standoff. Destruction is guaranteed in an eventuality of warfare. It is the cost of a choice made by both nations. But a war triggered via an errant missile would be a blight on either country, etched into its historical identity. Thus, I can live without economic engagement between India and Pakistan. I can even live with a ban on bilateral cricket series and Indian films. But back-channel military engagement and diplomatic normalcy are pivotal to avoiding misgivings and misunderstandings that may eventually unravel into unfortunate repercussions.
The writer holds a Bachelor's degree from the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi. He can be reached at szainabbasrizvi.14122@khi.iba.edu.pk
We live in a world where just a hint of subversion leads to full-blown invasions. In an era when we are witnessing a proliferation of inflammatory rhetoric in Europe and the Pacific, the episode of a supposedly ‘accidental’ missile launch from India into Pakistan is a problematic affair on multiple fronts. Even discounting the Indo-Pak historical timeline rife with military tensions, the mere premise of a missile launch from one nuclear-armed nation into a neighbouring counterpart is an alarming omen for the region - and the world at large. Yet the actual incident is wrapped into a reality even more precarious than it currently appears. And a lack of diplomatic connection is now revealing the risky downsides, downplayed since 2019 but alluding to be a wake-up call for respective countries. 
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