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Two Party Trap

The significance of the Presidential Elections in Sri Lanka this month will profoundly influence the island’s course of action.

By Dr. Qasim Sodhar | September 2024

Of late, there has been a notable shift in the political landscape of South Asia, with instances of public unrest resulting in violent attacks on significant institutions. In Bangladesh, for example, students staged protests against the quota system in job placements, ultimately leading to public pressure that prompted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign following military intervention. Similarly, in Pakistan, there were attacks on national and military institutions on May 9, 2023, driven by public anger towards the authorities. Notably, these attacks in Pakistan were allegedly carried out under the leadership of a particular political party, unlike the student-led demonstrations in Bangladesh.

In July 2022, the people of Sri Lanka protested against the government’s economic policies, leading to a deteriorating economy and widening crises. The public outcry was fueled by Sri Lanka’s debt-laden economy collapsing, leaving the country unable to pay for essentials such as food, fuel, and medicine. The nation had to rely on assistance from neighboring countries like India and China and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As a result, Sri Lankans were facing severe food shortages, long queues for scarce fuel and cooking gas, and a severe economic downturn. With the government unable to make interest payments on its massive $51 billion debt and tourism suffering due to the ensuing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the country’s currency plummeted by 80 percent, leading to increased import costs and worsening inflation. The finance ministry reported that Sri Lanka had only $25 million in usable foreign reserves but needed $6 billion to sustain itself for six months. The dire situation had left the country on the brink of bankruptcy, with insufficient funds to import essentials such as fuel, milk, medicine, and even toilet paper.

In that period of unrest, Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had agreed to step down next week following a protest at the presidential palace and a fire set at the prime minister’s residence, sparked by public frustration over a deepening economic crisis. Former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe proclaimed himself Incumbent President in July, a position he holds to this day. As the country prepares for the next presidential election on September 21, 2024, Wickremesinghe has become the first candidate to enter the race officially.


Meanwhile, the Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and parliamentarian Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who leads the Marxist-leaning Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), are expected to capitalize on this public dissatisfaction as they launch their presidential campaigns. During President Wickremesinghe’s tenure, the inflation rate dropped significantly from 70% in September 2022 to 1.7% in June 2024, marking a positive development in a crisis-hit country.

Yet, Wickremesinghe is celebrated and criticized for effectively securing emergency support for Sri Lanka through skillful negotiations with international lenders and China. While some applaud his neoliberal economic policies, others question their long-term effectiveness. Critics argue that his approach perpetuates debt, leads to loss of livelihoods, drives brain drain through heavy taxation, imposes austerity measures, and contributes to poverty and food inflation without a clear strategy for increasing investments, exports, and revitalizing the economy. Even supporters of his economic policies are unsettled by his authoritarian tendencies, particularly in stifling dissent and imposing burdensome taxation. Political analysts anticipate an intriguing and challenging election featuring candidates from older and younger generations. Notably, 38-year-old Namal Rajapaksa, the son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, is set to contest the presidential polls, potentially becoming the youngest candidate in Sri Lankan presidential election history.

Before that, the government has been evasive, employing delaying strategies despite forthcoming elections. First, the local authorities’ elections scheduled for 2023 were postponed due to an alleged lack of funds. Then, a legal petition seeking to delay the presidential election until the Supreme Court provides its interpretation of the election date was rejected by a five-member bench. The government has recently proposed the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution, widely seen as an apparent move to delay the polls. More recently, the government faced a significant setback when the court approved nine fundamental rights petitions challenging the appointment of an Inspector General of Police without due process and issued an interim order restraining him from performing his duties.

The latest provisional estimates from the Institute of Health Policy’s Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) MRP indicate a shift in the voting intent for the forthcoming Presidential Election in June 2024. According to the survey, support for SJB leader Sajith Premadasa has increased to 43% (+4), while support for NPP/JVP leader AK Dissanayake has decreased to 30% (-6) compared to the previous month. Additionally, support for President Ranil Wickremesinghe has risen to 20% (+3), while a generic SLPP candidate is at 7% (-1). However, it’s worth noting that the June estimates are linked to a notable increase in model uncertainty, making it clear that the two leading candidates are still within the margin of error.

In the current context, it’s important to note that although Sri Lankan voters have traditionally based their choices on factors like class, ethnicity, religion, caste, and historical allegiances, there seems to be a growing sense of voter fatigue. People are weary of perpetuating a cycle of electing political elites only to yield the same results. There is a rising call for a shift in the political landscape, aiming to break free from the conventional two-party system. While some seek stability and conservative options, others aspire for a significant transformation in the political sphere.

Given the Bangladesh crisis, which could impact voting patterns in Sri Lanka, the significance of September 21 lies not just in the election of the next president but in its potential to influence the island’s course of action profoundly. The outcome will be closely linked to the path Sri Lanka chooses to follow, demanding the utmost political insight from the electorate.

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