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Door to Dialogue
The TTP has cleverly affiliated some of its objectives with the political goals of some Pakistani religious and ethnic-oriented political parties, particularly Baloch and Pashtun nationalists.
Pakistan faces several complex security challenges, the foremost being the current insurgent movement of the TTP on the western border and the perennial antagonistic relationship with India on the eastern front.
Headquartered in Eastern Afghanistan, the Tehrik-i- Taliban (TTP) Pakistan is a militant group which has focused its war on the Pakistani state and its security forces. Taking advantage of a porous border with Afghanistan and its close fraternity with the Afghan, Taliban leadership has been dominating certain areas close to the border and conducting terrorist attacks in Pakistan. It has organized itself effectively and has recently intensified violence, mostly focusing on security personnel. Its strategy is based on the Afghan Taliban model to dominate areas and establish a Shariah-based legal system. The Taliban’s success in capturing power in Afghanistan must have been the foremost factor that has motivated the TTP to replicate the same approach towards Pakistan. However, Pakistan is not Afghanistan as it must have realized even from its past experience. The military, institutional strength and political and economic development of Pakistan is at a level where majority of the people shun radicalism and extremism.
Of course, certain less-developed areas such as parts of former tribal areas and Balochistan are more vulnerable and the TTP has been exploiting this weakness for establishing its foothold. There is a need for pushing forward development work in these areas not only for lessening influence of militants but for the benefit of the people who have been callously ignored and remained neglected for too long. The British used the tribal belt as a buffer against Afghanistan and approach by most of the governments after independence has not been very different.
One of the major factors in the TTP’s intensified violence and organizational strength is the Afghan Taliban’s return to power and its support. More importantly, the future threat to security that the TTP will pose and the likelihood of a peace deal with the Pakistani state, apart from other factors will depend on the support it receives from the Afghan Taliban leadership.
To gain power and establish its legitimacy, the TTP has cleverly affiliated some of its objectives with the political goals of some Pakistani religious and ethnic-oriented political parties, particularly Baloch and Pashtun nationalists.
The roots of the TTP as an organization go back to 2002 when Pakistan military conducted operations into the tribal areas to combat foreign militants. The militants, under the leadership of Baithullah Mehsud, comprised people mostly from Afghanistan, Arab and Central Asian states and they were fleeing from the war in Afghanistan to take refuge in the tribal areas. After the withdrawal of the American forces from Afghanistan, the rise of Afghan Taliban was a source of inspiration for the TTP. Moreover, by expanding its activities and committing terrorist attacks the TTP has strengthened its base support and organizational integrity. In contrast, flaws in policy formulation in dealing with the TTP and weaknesses in its implementation by successive Pakistani governments has strengthened it over the years.
Although, initially the people of the area were against them and even lately have been protesting in large numbers but successive governments have failed to capitalize on it. The indifference of civilian governments toward dealing with internal and external security issues and leaving it to the military has been another major shortcoming. The national action plan, which was a well-thought-out document prepared in consultation with all stakeholders, was never implemented seriously. I remember being a member of the committee that how much effort had gone in preparing it. It required close coordination between the provinces and the centre and effective monitoring which was ignored. The interplay of internal and external sources of terrorism is important in understanding the complexity of the threat and countering it. The various stages of evolution among the terrorist groups evolve from political awareness of a kind, to their eventual formation. A far sensible approach is to effectively deal with a terrorist organization during its formative stage rather than waiting to confront it when it is fully matured.
The TTP leadership has unified its various factions and organized itself and once again is challenging the Pakistani state. It has expanded its influence mostly in those areas which are based in Balochistan and KP and were erstwhile part of the tribal belt. It is now equally threating political leaders and government officials. The soft approach and initial lack of coherence in how to deal with the TTP by successive governments provided an opportunity to expand its influence. Presently, the TTP maintains its cells in certain major cities and have conducted attacks in Peshawar, Islamabad and Karachi.
After the withdrawal of the American forces from Afghanistan, the rise of Afghan Taliban was a source of inspiration for the TTP.
The Afghan Taliban leadership’s dilemma has been that the TTP has been their comrade in arms during the civil war against the US. However, this does not allow the TTP to use Afghan territory to launch attacks on Pakistan. Irrespective of whether it is the Taliban government’s inability or deliberate policy not to stop the TTP from using bases in Afghanistan, it has strained relations between the two neighbours. In doing so, it has belied the Taliban claim that they do not allow any group to use their territory to attack or conduct hostile activity against another country. The presence of al-Qaida chief Ayman-al-Zawahiri in Kabul also reinforces this impression. Considering that the Taliban government has hardly any support in the international community, apart from that of Pakistan and to some extent of China, any mistrust or in a worst-case scenario rupture in their relations would be very detrimental to the Taliban government’s interest.
On the eastern front, Indian hostility toward Pakistan continues unabated. PM Modi refuses to engage with Pakistan. The main aim of this policy is to keep pressure on Pakistan so as to weaken it economically and try to isolate it internationally. Meanwhile, it has through legislative measures in total disregard of international and bilateral treaties has integrated Kashmir in the Indian Union. The major powers are silent over Indian human right violations and its refusal to honour its international commitments, as expediency overrides principles. The Indian policy blatantly overlooks the hard fact that conflict resolution of Kashmir is essential for achieving durable peace and benefitting from the long-range benefits that can accrue from rapprochement. Events bear out that even after three years and six months of abrogating article 370 and the merger of Kashmir with Indian Union and installing an unrepresentative government by manipulating elections, peace has not returned to India. Kashmir, its natural scenic beauty and an ideal tourist resort, has been turned into a heavily militarized state to suppress the genuine aspirations of its people. For durable peace to be established New Delhi will have to give way to new initiatives involving the three parties India, Pakistan and Kashmiri leaders who genuinely represent the aspirations of the people.
With PM Modi’s intransigence the stalemate is unlikely to be broken and it is doubtful if PM Sharif’s latest offer to Indian leadership for dialogue will find a receptive ear, but the quest for peace and rational behaviour should continue.
The writer is a retired lieutenant general of the Pakistan Army and a former federal secretary. He has also served as chairman of the Pakistan Ordnance Factories Board.
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