Cover Story
Beyond Hobson and Sophie
National security is an extremely serious business that should not be reduced to an item for discussion in public meetings and cannot be left entirely to the ignorant politicians.
The land constituting today’s Pakistan has historically been the crossroad where at least five different civilisations sojourned for a few centuries and in their wake, they left upon the local populace their long-term social and cultural impact that has remained almost unchanged for the last many centuries. All invaders who descended upon Delhi from the West, especially from the Central Asia now referred to as the Central Asian Republics, came through the Khyber Pass and went through the land of five rivers to Delhi and other places. As an inexplicable reality, be it the Chinese dynasties/monarchies, the rulers of the hermit kingdom (Korea) or be it the Japanese, they never considered occupying Delhi or the subcontinent. The Japanese came close to Burma (Myanmar) and a Japanese submarine was reportedly spotted in the waters of Godavari River in south India near Chennai (Madras) during the Second World War.
Blessed with an irrevocable strategic geographic advantage, Pakistan is of great interest and relevance to all global powers. The global interest has the potential to gain dominance over our own national interest. To keep this probability at bay, having a formidable national security policy and its related apparatus intact and ready is extremely critical.
Achieving peace through dialogue is an ideal solution as long as there is enough strength at our disposal to make such a fancied dream come true. In fact, it is the lesson of war that helps nations value the significance of lasting peace. Put in bluntly, a war has to be waged to stop it. ‘Peace rarely comes and is seldom sustained when people refuse to fight. Peace comes when both sides realise that war is possible, and through fair negotiation, avoid conflict. Peace can only be attained through strength,’ writes the American author Jim Stovall, in his bestselling book titled ‘Wisdom of the Ages.’
There are both military and non-military threats facing the countries. Particularly in this day and age, the non-military threats have substantially expanded to include such emerging concepts as cultural invasion, largely because of rapid advancements in information technology. Any national security policy, therefore, must encompass the emerging forms of non-military warfare too. This has now led to the waging of hybrid wars between the warring nations. Nations tend to test the strength and response of their opponents through small teasers. Daring or sabre-rattling is the finest tactic that a war strategist with some genius can effectively employ, but it must never be confused with an action-packed adventure, as was done by the Indians in the Ladakh region and thwarted by Chinese forces with full action.
National security is not a new concept. Post Second World War, collective security became fashionable, in the shape of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and the Warsaw Pact, the military complement to the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON). The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a fallout and remnant of that concept ---- this grouping of various countries was based on forming military alliances to demonstrate strength and later the creation of the United Nations was seemingly the civil way of maintaining global security, within the ambit of international law, governance and financial and economic interdependence. The effectiveness of the UN in keeping peace or providing security cover to nations has been less than expectations. Thus, every country has had to develop and have its own security policy and defence arrangements.
The world has moved from purely looking at national security from a military standpoint to a new set of security concerns like physical security (internal security) as well as security in terms of economic, energy, environmental and other aspects. The issues of national security today need to be addressed through the lens of predictability both in the short and long term.
National security plans are usually built upon the following strategic pillars: People’s security is the ultimate goal which needs the foundation of a sound and stable political system; economic stability which goes to fortify the foundation; military security that includes a guarantee about science, technology and culture and closely followed on the heels is maintaining international security. Economic security is dependent on the overwhelming national and international security, impacting directly upon social political and economic space. The threats that emerge from the lack of economic security include potential of layoffs and prioritizing short-term gains over long-term growth that may lead to making wrong investment decisions, thus giving rise to national security concerns.
A prerequisite for economic security, political stability and independence is rendered meaningless if it is not backed by economic independence, while the need to have energy security is closely related to economic security as well. There are also various aspects that together enable the achievement of economic security, such as economic growth and innovation, working efficiency, economic freedom and the free choice to produce and sell without any internal or external interference.
The enemy makes its decisions about its opponents by virtue of the latter’s strength and weakness. There is no other way around than being strong and invincible.
The interdependence of these security concerns is now more knotty and problematic than ever before, knowing the fact that a weak economic structure leads to a weak economy. A classic example of this was the breakup of the Soviet Union. China, in stark contrast, handled intimidating pro-democracy protests led by disgruntled youth, with military might in the late 1980s. Though the action was internationally condemned, China was able to sustain international pressure, along with various threats of sanctions, because of its strong economy. Having acquired the status of being the ‘factory of the world,’ China was, therefore, in a position to influence the economies of several other countries, and the West had to restrain its reaction.
An ally in the ‘War on Terror’, Pakistan paid dearly in terms of loss of human lives. The fallout was both political and economic. Yet again, Pakistan is braving the chilly winds of both political and economic turmoil and the resurgence of terrorist activities has added to the country’s collective woes. A few analysts have even gone to the extent of stating that Pakistan lives under the cloud of Hobson’s choice, as there are no available alternatives or choices to be exercised and we are caught between a rock and a hard place. The misbelief here is that despite being on the take-it-or-leave-it position, Pakistan would have illusions of security and rely on external forces to provide that security cover. There are some political pundits who harbour the view that we can get into a situation of facing Sophie’s choice --- a choice where every alternative has significant negative consequences. This scribe, however, holds an alternative and different view, as neither of these two choices can be at play, considering our nuclear status.
The safe keeping of the entire country is an issue of national security and as a matter of utmost importance, it attracts the most attention. We thus assign sizeable amounts to our defence and strategic assets, modernize the armed forces and replace outdated military equipment, aerospace technology, and lots more. In the given scenario, Pakistan has to embrace new defence technologies and the emphasis in the allocation of funds must remain unaltered.
The enemy makes its decisions about its opponents by virtue of the latter’s strength and weakness. There is no other way around than being strong and invincible to a very large extent. A very small country like Israel has successfully created the ‘invincibility’ perception of its defence mechanisms and also about the ability of its armed forces.
Any nation wishing to hold itself secure must have formidable economic resilience. Of all the aspects of national security, the most imperative task is to provide for the security of economic and financial assets of the country, which can only be achieved through a wholesome and comprehensive design and planning. It must inter-alia include clear-cut policies relating to trade - imports and exports, creation of a sizeable pool of foreign exchange reserves, fiscal discipline and taxation, industrial and agricultural policy, etc.
Energy security and food security concerns are the two important offshoots that emerge from the economic insecurity. In both of these areas, even after 75 years of the country’s independence we are not only dependent on others but are extremely vulnerable to the extent of coming up against a brick wall.
The security policy must also be able to deal with all possible contingencies. Good plans get scuttled and bad ones cause victory owing to a change in scenario. A fox can be evasive but never be inclined or in favour of peace. The bestial attribute in the enemy demands an infallible alertness.
Security matters are fortified only by calculation. No positive result can be achieved unless the issue has been profoundly thought through in the minutest of details. The security apparatus has to be for real to avert any possible adventurism from the enemy. The downing of the Indian Air Force aircraft in February 2021 is a case in point of readiness to exhibit the element of pursuing the existence of an invincible and ‘intimidating’ security screen.
The acquisition of nuclear technology, thanks to the vision of politically astute Zulfikar Ali Bhutto together with decades-long efforts of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan and his many talented group of scientists, has given us that sound cover which acts as a major deterrent of any ‘military adventurism’ from the neighbouring country.
National security is an extremely serious business that should not be reduced to an item for discussion in public meetings and cannot be left entirely to the ignorant politicians. Our National Security Policy is ours, and not handed down for the protection of others’ interests. Pakistan first, is its prologue and epilogue. Nothing less.
The writer is a senior banker and freelance columnist. He can be reached at azizsirajuddin18@gmail.com
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Legacy of Foreign Aid
As shown in the cartoon, two men with their heads outside their windows are talking to each other, saying that since Pakistan has now become the recipient of the U.S. aid, the country would never be able to stand on its feet again.
Referring to the U.S. aid, the then Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru said that those American peanuts eaten by Liaquat Ali Khan, the then Pakistan prime minister, would cost dearly to Pakistan.
The reader may better decide how true are the words spoken by Nehru in the early 1960s.