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Region

New Wars, New Targets

For a long time, Balochistan has been plagued with unrest and disturbances.

By Amna Nisar Abbasi | May 2021

The unending turbulence and tides of Baloch nationalism, religious and jihadist activism, and ethnic conflict including sectarianism, has had major ramifications for domestic, regional, and global security in recent years. Since 2009, Balochistan has come under increased scrutiny, with the Americans alleging that Quetta and its surrounding areas are a safe haven for the Taliban leadership. The US strategy in Afghanistan has fallen short of neutralizing the insurgency that threatens the future stability of the region.

The Afghan First Vice President, Amrullah Saleh blamed Pakistan for setting up terrorist factories and agencies that provide explosives materials to the Taliban in order to create chaos in Afghanistan. Saleh also alleged that the Quetta Shura (Council) was nothing else but a title for the Pakistani military to implement their plans. Even the US State Department’s Terrorism Report 2019 declared that Pakistan is providing a safe haven for terrorist organizations.

The United States has continually argued that the Taliban insurgence in Afghanistan is helped by their support network across the border in Pakistan and the previously Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of northwest Pakistan have become a de facto operational theatre for the Afghan war. Contrarily, the insurgency leadership council (Quetta Shura) has effectively managed its influence through a shadow government and superior tactics in recruiting marginalized tribal leaders, creating a dubious outcome, once the Americans execute their withdrawal plan in September 2021.

The term Quetta Shura is used to define the strategic leadership of the Afghan Taliban based in Pakistan but the facts are misinterpreted without understanding. There is no evidence of active training camps, either run by the Taliban or through the tacit approval of the state, in Balochistan at this time. There is a historical context to this fact that the tribal Pashtuns and Afghans have been living in the border areas adjacent to Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran along the Balochistan border.

For the last three decades, Afghan refugees after the Soviet invasion, have become embedded in Pakistani society through intermarriages. They have property, land and families on both sides of the border and have historically moved between the two countries for trade and travel. They have also done seasonal migrations and stayed in temporary settlements for food and water and for grazing their livestock. The influx of Pashtuns from across the border has added to the multi-cultural infrastructure, as a result of ethnic streams (shia-sunni) in Balochistan.

Maj. Gen. Ubaidullah Khan said that there might be a communication gap, but no extremist elements are present in the region. Pashtuns living in Balochistan are different from those in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and are business-oriented. They have nothing to do with extremists. But even if people associated with the Taliban Movement have ties through intermarriages or have ethnic bonds, it does not necessarily mean that the locals support the Taliban ideology.

It is beyond doubt that there are foreign motives behind the instability in Balochistan. The capabilities of the Taliban’s Quetta Shura have become severely limited through surveillance by intelligence agencies, mainly the CIA. However, Pakistani and American interests diverge here: the United States seeks to keep militants in Balochistan and the rest of Pakistan from providing support for their comrades in Afghanistan, while Pakistan allegedly maintains ties with some militant groups in Afghanistan to hedge against Indian influence there.

Balochistan is a field of proxy wars between regional and international powers. India is actively involved in proxy wars in Balochistan. It is not a hidden truth that an operational Indian spying network headed by Kulbushan Yadav was detected in Balochistan in 2016. The network was chiefly funded by the BLA for their desired goals to relentlessly keep the unrest going and sabotage the peace and stability of Pakistan through Balochistan. It is a fact that India is providing support and funding to ethnic groups as well as fueling the separatist movement to benefit the war.

India is trying to gain influence both in Afghanistan as well as in Iran for its trade interests and would achieve its goals if there is continuous disturbance in Balochistan. They may have foreign intelligence support from US and Israel, who are both against Iran and China, and have their own political agendas to destabilize China, Iran and the regional trade corridor which is being developed by the Chinese to gain access to central Europe through Pakistan and Iran via rail and sea routes.

A seminar was held by the Democracy Forum and Lord Diljit Rana in the House of Lords in February 2017 in which Hyrbyair Marri and Mir Suleman Khan of Kalat participated. This event was likely to be in line with Indian policies. The United States has a lot of concern about the Chinese who have heavily invested in Balochistan. A group of Republican Congressmen led by Rohrabacher have frequently met the Baloch nationalist representatives not only from Pakistan but also from Iran, in Washington, London, and Germany. The situation developing in the area is reflecting some characteristics of what has been called New Wars.

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