Prospects and Challenges

The recent presidential election in Sri Lanka marked a pivotal moment in the country’s modern history. On September 21, 2024, Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), a left-leaning candidate and leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), was elected as the country’s new president. This victory represents a significant departure from the political dominance of Sri Lanka’s traditional parties and signals a profound desire for change among its citizens. Amid the backdrop of economic turmoil, Dissanayake’s election comes with high expectations and an equally daunting set of challenges, ranging from reviving the economy to managing complex geopolitical relationships with India and China.

The election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake is a direct result of widespread public dissatisfaction with Sri Lanka’s political establishment. This discontent can be traced back to the 2022 Aragalaya (“people’s struggle”), a mass protest movement triggered by an unprecedented economic crisis. The protests, which brought together citizens across ethnic, religious, and class lines, demanded accountability from leaders who had long prioritized personal gain over governance. The political crisis of 2022 resulted in the resignation of then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, whose family dynasty had dominated Sri Lankan politics for nearly two decades.

However, the political vacuum was temporarily filled by Ranil Wickremesinghe, a veteran insider who was perceived as a continuation of the old guard. Despite stabilizing the economy with a $3 billion IMF bailout and improving relations with foreign donors, Wickremesinghe’s tenure was marred by unpopular austerity measures and the use of state powers to suppress dissent. In contrast, Dissanayake emerged as a fresh face of reform and accountability. His campaign emphasized combating corruption, reducing inequality, and addressing governance failures. Hailing from a rural Sinhalese family far removed from Colombo’s elite political class, Dissanayake’s personal story resonated with ordinary voters. His leadership of the JVP, a party once associated with violent uprisings, showcased his ability to transform it into a legitimate political force advocating for the rights of marginalized groups and labour unions. Dissanayake’s platform represented a clear rejection of the two dominant political parties—the United National Party (UNP) and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)—that had ruled since independence. Both parties performed poorly in the election, underscoring the public’s desire for a break from traditional politics.

However, Dissanayake’s path to victory was not straightforward. He secured 42% of the vote in the first round and won the presidency through a second-choice voting system. His support was concentrated in Sinhalese-majority areas, while voters in the Tamil- and Muslim-dominated North and East were less enthusiastic. These minority groups, still wary of the JVP’s past ethno-nationalist stances, largely abstained from endorsing his candidacy. Despite this, Dissanayake’s victory signals a decisive shift toward political reform, providing hope for a more inclusive future. The most pressing challenge for Dissanayake’s presidency will be addressing Sri Lanka’s dire economic and financial situation. The 2022 crisis exposed systemic weaknesses in the country’s economic management, including unsustainable debt levels, corruption, and import dependence. While his predecessors secured short-term stabilization through the IMF program, the associated austerity measures disproportionately affected the working class, exacerbating public frustration.

At the heart of Dissanayake’s economic agenda is a commitment to combating corruption and increasing transparency in governance. Decades of mismanagement and graft have eroded public trust in institutions, and Dissanayake has vowed to dismantle these entrenched practices. His administration plans to overhaul bureaucratic processes, streamline government services, and hold public officials accountable for misuse of resources. Dissanayake has also pledged to ease the financial burden on Sri Lanka’s most vulnerable citizens. The IMF-imposed value-added tax (VAT) and high energy prices have disproportionately impacted low-income households. Dissanayake aims to renegotiate these terms to reduce their regressive impact while maintaining fiscal discipline. Although critical of the IMF’s stringent conditions, Dissanayake has expressed a willingness to work with the organization to ensure long-term economic stability. His administration plans to renegotiate the $3 billion bailout program to prioritize growth and social welfare over austerity. This includes advocating for greater flexibility in debt restructuring talks with international creditors.