The Battle for Punjab

Punjab has the largest economy in Pakistan, contributing the most to the national GDP. The province’s economy has quadrupled since 1972. Its share of Pakistan’s GDP was 54.7% in 2000 and 59% as of 2010. It is especially dominant in the services and agriculture sectors of the national economy. Punjab is the most industrialised province of Pakistan; its manufacturing industries produce textiles, sports goods, heavy machinery, electrical appliances, surgical instruments, vehicles, auto parts, metals, sugar mill plants, aircraft, cement, agricultural machinery, bicycles and rickshaws, floor coverings, and processed foods.

Punjab’s canal-irrigation system is the largest in the world. Wheat and cotton are the largest crops. Livestock and poultry production are also important. Punjab contributes about 76% to the annual food grain produce in the country. Cotton and rice are important crops. They are the cash crops that contribute substantially to the national exchequer. Punjab also has more than 68 thousand industrial units.

The Punjab Provincial Assembly has a total of 371 seats, with 66 seats reserved for women and eight reserved for non-Muslims. The National Assembly consists of 342 members and Punjab has 183 seats (53%), including 35 seats for women and 23 seats in the Senate (upper house) out of a total 100 seats. Thus the winner in the Punjab wins the federal government and the prime minister slot too making Punjab the kingmaker.

In 2001, the Punjabis constituted over 71 per cent of the army. After a comprehensive study, the numerical strength was reduced in later years and was brought down to just over 57 per cent by 2007 and a further three per cent decrease in recruitment from that province was done by 2011 by promoting recruitment from other provinces and parts of Pakistan. Within a decade (2001-2011), the composition of Pakhtuns in the army rose to 14.5 per cent, Sindhis to 17 per cent. Now Azad Kashmir and the Northern Areas constitute approximately 9 per cent of the army. Besides, a lot of efforts were made to promote induction in the armed forces from Balochistan, the former tribal areas as well as from non-Muslim minorities.

Punjab enjoys the largest share in the civil bureaucracy as per the population of the province. However, to address the heartburn against Punjabi dominance in the overall politics and civil bureaucracy, nothing significant has happened so far despite some serious effort by the PTI ousted government to realise division of Punjab into North and South Punjab.

The rise of PTI is an indicator of populism, like many democratic countries in today’s information revolution era have witnessed the rise of independent voters who do not believe in freezing their loyalty. The voters desire a re-jigged politico-economic network of elites to hope for better governance through technocrats. Harkening back to former East Pakistan’s crib against imposition of Urdu language, Punjab dominated civil and military bureaucracy and inequality in some other fields, and somewhat similar grumbling by other provinces in Pakistan, the politics of Pakistani Punjab continues to be dominated by landowning politicians, despite significant societal changes that could have potentially eroded their power. As the landed elite (with expanded footprints and investment now in the food, manufacturing and construction industries), were able to reinforce their bargain with the colonial state, similarly after independence, they succeeded in getting close to the Pakistani full spectrum establishment, perpetuating a relationship that facilitated the pursuit of the interests of the actors involved. Punjab has also been strongly influenced by Sufism, with numerous Sufi shrines spread across the province, attracting millions of devotees annually. Again the shrines’ seats (gaddi) holders draw financial and political strength from the respective followers. The rise of politico-religious cults with menacing militant teeth and creed is yet another unbridled phenomenon adding more complications to the already muddy political scene in the country.

Punjab crisis has made things harder for the incumbent government.

It is obvious that Imran Khan’s populist politics has helped the PTI recuperate its support base to the advantage of its candidates in the critical by-elections victory, which has also significantly increased the former prime minister’s popularity in Punjab, thus far, considered it was the stronghold of the PML-N for over three decades. More importantly, the fate of the coalition government at the centre, which depends on a two-vote majority, is also shaken by the outcome of the battle for Punjab. So far, the ruling PDM alliance has decided to continue to hold on to power in the centre until the end of the assemblies’ term. But the Punjab crisis has made things harder for the incumbent government that is trying to work out a way to win the imminent next general elections, besides cleaning the slate of corruption charges and amending the NAB laws, leaving the much desired emphasis on the political and economic stability to the establishment, lip service notwithstanding.

If Pakistan is to progress as a modern state where the foundation of governance can be based upon scientific and technological advancement that can prevail upon obsolete colonial political, judicial and administrative systems, it will have to address the domination of Punjab in the national mainstream. Besides, the process of creation of new monsters to take care of the old Frankenstein needs to be abandoned once and for all. The imminent economic collapse has to be the top priority for the Pakistan Government, rather than consistent reliance on the manipulative lifeline provided by the IMF or the World Bank that impinges on our national interest.

As they say, whosoever takes Punjab takes the centre. I think the battle is over in Punjab. PTI has knocked out the PML-N because of the corruption narrative against the Sharifs, although the PDM is trying their best using the invisibles for a technical knockout but, with mammoth public support, the boys are in a fix and totally confused as it seems there is also a division within the invisibles. Any more experiments will be the greatest disaster since our independence. If sense has to prevail and if anyone wants to go down in history, then fair and transparent elections is the answer… or else historians will not spare anyone writing the factual details of the last rites.

Pakistan is not a nation cut from the same fabric. In fact, the country comprises a variety of nations held together and living besides each other by virtue of the diktat of the army. A federal constitution provides a veneer of legitimacy. Islam is not the binding force, as much as we think it is, however, the Urdu language has brought the nation together after we decided to get rid of one part of Pakistan. The on-going battle for Punjab will not change the status quo. Both the PTI and the PML-N think in a similar manner and hold contempt against Balochistan, Sindh and the Mohajirs. PTI may be allowed to upset the Punjab apple cart but it would not be able to eat all the apples. Because, army is the next challenge. There will never be a two-third majority or the Parliamentary system will be replaced by the Presidential form of government since the former suits the Establishment well. The politicians can have as many battles as they want in Punjab but the show will still need approval and the Judiciary will be happy to obey and oblige. The most meaningful battle in Punjab should be fought for the creation of a Saraiki province, an unfulfilled dream bereft of any support both from the PTI and the PML-N. They are mistaken if they think that a clean sweep in Punjab will give them total control.