Despite having alleged 'massive backing' of the Khalai Makhlooq, being the ruling party at the federal and provincial levels, having support of a subservient police and administration, and of powerful sections of the media, and who also had an unflinching support of 12 large and small parties and powerful local factional leaders, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz could win only four of the twenty provincial seats in the by-elections held in Punjab on July 17, 2022. It was indeed an extremely humiliating defeat for the PML-N because Punjab is considered a citadel of the PML-N since the 1980s. The defeat becomes even more alarming when the winner - Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf had contested the election on its own and at a time when every established institution of the country and the Punjab was actively working against it.
This has triggered a debate about the future of the PML-N. Some political analysts think it is the beginning of the end of the fiefdom of the Sharif’s in Punjab and Pakistan. To some the PML-N’s historic defeat is a temporary setback. However, it is also likely that suggestions will be made to the party leadership to undergo a thorough soul-searching.
Let’s consider some empirical facts before reaching a plausible conclusion. Are the results of 17th July by-elections sufficient to predict the future of the PML-N? In my opinion, it sounds a bit too much to rely just on that. However, a comparative analysis of the election results of 2018 and the by-elections could be useful. In 2018, the PML-N had contested elections on its own. It had contested elections only on 15 of the 20 seats of by-elections. It won just one seat, lost four seats to independents and 10 to PTI. This party contested all the 20 seats and lost seven to independents and one to PMLN. Both the PML-N and PTI contested the elections under a caretaker set-up.
On the other hand, as stated in the foregoing, the PML-N contested the recent by-elections at a time when it was in power and all members of the ruling coalition plus the 2018 (20) independents jointly contested the by-elections. Regarding outcome of the by-elections., as for seats, one could argue that the PML-N gained three more seats than in 2018. However, if you compare it with their combined seats, the share of the coalition plus independents has declined massively from 11 to four seats. Regarding the share in votes, in the 2018 election, their combined vote bank was 1,057,052; in the by-elections it was reduced to 883,185 – almost a 10% drop. It seems unlikely that the PDM member parties plus the affiliated independents will not contest the next general elections jointly. If this happens, the PML-N vote bank is likely to drop further.
The margin of the PML-N’s defeat has deepened since 2018. For instance, PTI’s margin of victory has increased from 8% in 2018 to 14% in 2022. Moreover, interestingly, Lahoris showed little interest in voting on 17th July, as the average turnout in the four constituencies of the city was 34.7%, while in the rest of the constituencies it was as high as 53% on an average.
Let’s now examine the causes of the PML-N’s defeat. Broadly, political analysts cited the following factors. 1. ‘Unwillingness of PMLN in using modern methods (social media) of campaigning.’ 2. Instead of fielding tested candidates, the PML-N preferred turncoats, which caused annoyance and low turnout of PML-N voters. 3. Extremely poor performance of the PML-N government and steep increase in prices of essential commodities since April.
The writer heads the Pattan Development Organisation.
Zahid Hussain
The outcome of the Punjab by-elections has changed the course of the country’s politics. The PTI’s triumph has cleared the way for the party to regain control of the country’s most powerful province, leaving the fate of the PML-N-led government at the centre hanging in the balance.
t has certainly been a resounding poll victory for a party which was ousted from power just a few months ago. Most astonishing is the scale of the PTI’s success. The humiliation suffered by the PML-N reflects the shifting political sands in the country’s heartland.
While Imran Khan’s aggressive campaign and his populist politics may have helped galvanise his voters, there were several other factors that contributed to the result. The overthrow of his government before the end of its tenure made a political martyr out of him. Unlike previous ousted leaders Imran Khan fought back with a ferociousness never seen before.
True, the PML-N is still a formidable political force in the province but the latest by-elections have exposed its vulnerability. The social and economic changes that have occurred over the years have also impacted the politics of Punjab more than anywhere else. The province that comprises over half the country’s population is experiencing one of the fastest processes of urbanisation anywhere. That was also reflected in these by-elections, with the PTI gaining ground across the urban-rural divide.
The large turnout of voters, rarely seen in by-elections, demonstrates that the PTI was able bring out young voters, making the difference. While the PTI appeared better organised, the PML-N was riven by internal feuds. Predominantly a family enterprise, the party miserably failed to meet the aspirations of the young generation of voters looking for change.
With the critical by-elections over, a new round of the power game has begun that is likely to be more vicious.