It’s not about Israel

Recognizing Israel has been the Superpower’s desire ever since we became its frontline ally. And, as it always happens, a few from within our ranks too got on to their bandwagon – some admittedly in the belief that it would help us access advance technology and ingress in the most powerful earthly corridors. Ties with the Middle East, our ideological moorings, and indeed the sentiment at home helped us escape this trap. At times we simply passed the buck on to the OIC – fully confident that this organization would never take a decision; especially on such sensitive a matter.

However, during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, the US did succeed in persuading us to establish a covert connection with Tel Aviv. Whether it was to get the right weaponry for the Mujahedeen or more money from the US, it turned out that such channels worked more to help the other side – Israel in this case – and our own efforts could pay better dividends. When the Pressler Amendment was invoked after the Soviet withdrawal, some still infatuated with this infernal link soon found out that the extra-ordinary powers of the Jewish lobby were not for our benefit. Good ties with the Saudis on the other hand were more helpful in our dealings with the US. No longer.

The post 9/11 bull-in-the-china-shop American policies may have upset a few applecarts worldwide, but for the Kingdom it signaled the end of the line. Not only because after the ouster of Saddam, its political and sectarian rival, Iran, was better placed, but also because most of the oil resources in the Middle East were now under the Shiite regimes – or where this ethnicity was well represented. (A Kurdish enclave was an exception). In the Holy Land too, all that the Saudis produce and survive upon – oil – comes from a hundred by fifty kilometers piece of real-estate that has a large Shiite minority.

Under the circumstances, any country with fragile roots in history, tenuous internal bonds, and a narrow economic base, was bound to panic—especially if the upstart rulers had demolished its most stabilizing pillar: a succession regime that kept unity in the royal family. MBS, the current crown prince and de facto the chief executive, obviously lacks the wisdom and the patience of the Desert. In the belief that Israel was his best bet against the archrival Iran, he has leaned on Pakistan to wean us away from the region and join the Jewish-led nexus. He threatened us to stay away from the conference in Malaysia in which Iran was an important participant. By relenting, Imran Khan clearly exposed a vulnerable flank. The next demand – recognize Israel – was therefore on the cards.

God forbid if we yield again, whatever may be the other consequences, one is inevitable. The “do-more” mantra would now be recited from a holy pulpit.