Japan’s Quest for Foreign Policy

In 1991, soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, an interesting but controversial book was published in the United States. The book ‘The Coming War with Japan’ was written by two analysts, George Friedman and Meridith LeBard. In other words, with the Soviet Union defeated and the collapse of communism, some analysts were assuming that the ‘real enemy’ of the United States was now going to be Japan, a country that the United States had defeated through the devastation of the atomic bomb in 1945.

However, that notion seemed far-fetched, and in fact, Japan was never perceived as the kind of enemy that the Soviet Union was; it was a tough economic competitor, which the United States gradually cut down to size. In fact, after the Soviet Union, it was the “Islamic fundamentalism” that the United States helped fuel during the Afghan war in the 80s that became the United States’ perceived ‘threat,’ a process exenterated by the traumatic events of 9/11.

Now, in the first quarter of the 21st century, Japan has joined the American bandwagon, viewing China as the ‘enemy’ and contributing to the building of a new Asian security architecture through such organizations as QUAD or the vague notion of “Asian NATO,” which was supposed to have a Liaison Office in Tokyo.

After the end of the Second World War, with Pakistan having attained independence and Japan under American occupation, a new relationship blossomed between these two Asian countries. Japan already had an old relationship with the undivided subcontinent, having established an Urdu department at the Tokyo University in Japan in 1932. As both Pakistan and Japan were in the American camp during the height of the Cold War, the relations between the two countries blossomed, especially in economy, trade, and investment. Interestingly, until the 1990s, Japan was Pakistan’s largest donor. Pakistan also contributed to the revival and rebuilding of Japan’s economy by massive exports and waiving war reparations. Pakistan exported cotton and jute to Japan, which helped the Japanese economy as textiles were the only industry allowed during that period of American occupation. Pakistan also donated rice to Japan to offset the acute shortage of grains and food in Japan after World War II.

President General Ziaul Haq undertook a landmark visit to Japan in July 1983. He returned to Pakistan quite impressed by the Japanese phenomenal progress, especially in technology, the revival of the Japanese economy after the destruction of the war, the discipline and work ethic of the Japanese nation, and the corporate culture. Those working in those corporations felt a sense of loyalty and devotion to their companies, which was similar in intensity and unwavering commitment to their country.

After General Zia’s trip, a series of seminars with Japanese scholars and experts participated under the theme “Can Pakistan be Japan?” I happened to personally participate in one of such seminars, which was organized in Islamabad on January 30, 1984, under the chairmanship of the then Minister for Planning and Development, Dr. Mehbubul Haq. This was the first time such an intellectual and scholarly interaction occurred between Pakistan and Japan.

Japan also played a role in the freedom struggle in India. The Japanese organized the Indian National Army (INA), a collection of officers and service personnel who revolted against the British Indian Army and joined the anti-colonial Indian National Army.

I discovered Japan during my stay in the United States as a student. My roommate was a Japanese, Toshitatsu Hirohara, from whom I learned about the Japanese people’s disciplined and highly committed work and professional lifestyle, which was one reason for their high productivity. Another friend, an American by the name of Jim Kahn, who was studying the Japanese language, to become a Japanese expert. He had a Japanese girlfriend, and they regularly cooked me very healthy and delicious Japanese food.

Another interesting interaction with Japan was when I worked as a congressional intern at the US Congress in Washington, DC. The only other Asian who was also working as an intern was the son of former Japanese Prime Minister Takeo Miki.

In two areas, there was a divergence of perspectives between Pakistan and Japan, namely, Pakistan’s relationship with China and Pakistan’s decision to detonate the nuclear bomb in May 1998 in response to the Indian nuclear tests. On both counts, Japan had major reservations.

Given this context, with new realities in a changing global order marked by turbulence and transformation, Japan is still struggling to find its place. The entire Japanese policy framework has not only depended on the United States but has been inextricably intertwined with the US interests, goals, and ties. With the election of President Donald Trump and his subsequent changes in America’s relationship with their traditional allies, Japan is now unsure whether it can still bank on this special relationship with Washington.

President Trump has drastically revised and reversed American ties with traditional allies in Europe and Asia, as its approach is not ideological but primarily transactional now. The old Cold War infrastructure comprising QUAD, AUKUS, and the Asian NATO is of limited interest to President Trump. However, these are the infrastructure edifices on which Japanese foreign policy has been built. In fact, in President Trump’s worldview, the major powers that matter, apart from the United States, are China and Russia. President Trump is not impressed with building military alliances to contain China, and he would rather cut a deal between China and Russia, something like a “New Yalta” in 1945; Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin did that.

With the West already in decline, Japan has fewer options. On the security front, with North Korea already becoming a nuclear power and the US-North Korea talks about to resume, Japan might feel cut out of this emerging scenario in North East Asia. And in the overall emerging geopolitical scenario in Asia, Japan might feel a certain “suffocation” should President Trump and President Xi Jinping work out an arrangement directly.

So, the best bet for Japan is to be part of the Asian Century, which is dawning in the world’s biggest and most populous continent, and play its natural role as a friend of countries like China and Russia rather than putting itself up as a ‘front man’ for a new American-led cold war against China and Russia in Asia. As a major Asian Middle Power with a long history and a track record of successful development after the destruction of the Second World War, Japan should stop viewing itself merely as an appendage of American foreign policy in Asia.

Rather, Japan should play its role in a manner that pertains to its core interests and those corresponding to the peoples and countries of Asia, which lie in cooperation and connectivity, not conflict and confrontation, and not be a part of any new cold war or containment policies.