In the intricate web of international relations, Nepal finds itself at a pivotal crossroads, balancing the interests and aspirations of major regional and global powers like China, India, and the United States. Nepali Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Sharma’s forthcoming visit to China has ignited discussions and speculation regarding Nepal’s foreign policy trajectory and its implications for regional dynamics in South Asia.
Despite China’s attempts to subtly enhance its influence and diminish the prospects of the United States and India in Nepal, the current regional dynamics, security frameworks, and intense competition from New Delhi and Washington give Nepal various alternatives, making it difficult for China to achieve its goals.
Consequently, China finds itself in a challenging position in Nepal, leading to its increasing frustration. But what are the critical factors that shape the dynamics of China-Nepal relations? Is China’s recent surge in economic investment fostering important infrastructure projects while simultaneously creating a significant dependency on Chinese support? How do geopolitical considerations, particularly India’s influence in the region, affect the bilateral ties between China and Nepal? In what ways does the evolving political landscape in Nepal, including shifts in leadership and policy direction, complicate this relationship? Ultimately, how is the interplay of these elements significantly redefining the future of China-Nepal relations?
Historical context and diplomatic ties indicate that Nepal’s relationship with China spans centuries and is characterised by mutual respect, cultural interactions, and strategic dialogues. Historical records reveal exchanges between monks and scholars in ancient times that laid the groundwork for formal relations.
Establishing diplomatic ties in 1955 marked a significant milestone, fostering a cordial connection based on the principles of peaceful coexistence. This long-standing relationship has been further deepened through various agreements and collaborations in trade, culture, and infrastructure.
However, Nepal’s geopolitical journey has not been without challenges. As Nepal navigates the complexities of its geopolitical landscape, recent issues with India have prompted a re-evaluation of its foreign policy approach. In particular, the blockade imposed by India during the aftermath of the devastating 2015 earthquake that killed around 9000 people highlighted Nepal’s vulnerabilities and the need for diversified external support.
Despite India providing aid during this crisis, the perception of media jingoism and India’s unilateral actions during the subsequent constitutional changes ignited a backlash among Nepalese citizens. The blockade, criticised as an imposition of economic pressure, was a stark reminder of Nepal’s vulnerabilities. This was not the first instance of an economic blockade by India; similar tactics had been employed in the past, such as in 1989 and the 1960s. However, the 2015 episode was different, symbolising a critical juncture that showcased China as a potential ally.
The writer is associated with the National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad as an Assistant Professor at Department of Government and Public Policy. She can be reached at farahnaz@s3h.nust.edu.pk
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