Enhancing Meteorological Capacity

Pakistan, like other South Asian countries, faces unique climatic challenges with its diverse geography that includes arid deserts, vast river plains, and the towering peaks of the Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hindukush ranges, experiences a wide range of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, cyclones, and heatwaves. The increasing impact of climate change on these weather patterns places enormous pressure on the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) to enhance its technological capabilities and provide timely, accurate forecasts. This article examines the current state of meteorological infrastructure in Pakistan, highlighting key technological gaps and exploring the steps needed to improve forecasting and climate resilience.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is the country’s key institution for weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and early warning systems. However, compared to meteorological agencies in developed countries, the PMD faces several structural and technological limitations. One of the primary challenges is the inadequate infrastructure for real-time weather monitoring. Pakistan has fewer weather stations, particularly in rural and remote regions, compared to more technologically advanced countries like those in Europe. For instance, the mountainous areas of northern Pakistan and desert regions such as Balochistan are underrepresented in terms of meteorological sensors. This sparse coverage hinders the PMD’s ability to collect real-time data, leading to less accurate forecasts.

By contrast, European meteorological agencies benefit from dense networks of observation stations, advanced satellite systems, and powerful supercomputers, enabling them to produce precise, localized forecasts. The gap between Pakistan and these advanced systems is a key area of concern, especially given the increasing frequency of extreme weather events associated with climate change.

Despite the challenges, the PMD has made notable strides in improving its forecasting abilities. It utilizes Global Forecast System (GFS) models and region-specific adaptations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. However, these models rely heavily on international data inputs and do not yet achieve the high-resolution predictions that more advanced systems offer.

In developed countries, like those in Europe, national meteorological departments often use ensemble forecasting, which runs multiple simulations to capture a wide range of possible weather outcomes. Pakistan is still in the early stages of adopting such methods. Due to limitations in supercomputing capacity, the PMD cannot yet run the highly complex weather models necessary for ensemble forecasting, limiting its ability to predict extreme events with precision.

To bridge this gap, Pakistan has begun to invest in supercomputing infrastructure. However, this is still modest compared to systems like the UK Met Office’s supercomputers or the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). These European systems can run sophisticated, high-resolution models that provide accurate long-term forecasts. Pakistan’s capacity remains limited to shorter-term predictions and fewer model outputs.

One critical tool in meteorology is the use of satellites for weather observation and climate monitoring. Pakistan’s Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) has launched several satellites, such as PAKSAT-1R, though these are not specifically designed for meteorological purposes. The PMD relies heavily on international satellite systems, such as those operated by NOAA and ESA, to supplement its data needs.

In comparison, Europe benefits from the Copernicus Programme, which provides real-time, high-resolution satellite imagery for weather and climate observation. European countries have access to various geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites, significantly enhancing their ability to monitor and predict extreme weather conditions. Pakistan’s reliance on external data limits its ability to independently forecast major weather events, especially those that require real-time satellite inputs, such as cyclones and floods.