Beyond Strategic Depth

Pakistan has long held a pivotal role in shaping the dynamics of Afghanistan’s political, economic, and social landscape. This influence stems from a myriad of factors, chief among them being geography, politics, trade, refugees, religion, and cultural/ethnic affinity.

Geographically, Pakistan shares a 1900 km border with Afghanistan, known as the Durand Line, stretching from the Mintaka Pass in Pamirs to Gwadar Bay in the Arabian Sea. This border has significant historical and strategic importance, serving as a trade route between Central Asia and the Indian Subcontinent. The River Kabul flows into Pakistan, facilitating hydroelectric and irrigation projects like the Warsak Dam. However, the Durand Line also splits numerous tribes between Afghanistan and Pakistan, leading to complex socio-political dynamics in the region.

Politically, Pakistan has exerted considerable influence in Afghanistan, particularly during pivotal events like the struggle against the USSR and the subsequent Geneva and Peshawar Accords. Many Afghan leaders and parties have maintained bases in Pakistan, further solidifying its influence in Afghan affairs.

Trade has been a critical aspect of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, with Afghanistan heavily reliant on transit trade through Pakistan. This trade relationship has provided Pakistan with leverage over Afghan authorities, especially considering the Afghan merchant class’s stake in re-exporting goods into Pakistan.

Refugees have also played a significant role in shaping Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, with millions seeking refuge in Pakistan during periods of conflict in Afghanistan. Despite not being a signatory to the Geneva Convention on Refugees, Pakistan has been proactive in refugee rehabilitation, hosting a large Afghan refugee population to this day.

Religiously and culturally, Pakistan and Afghanistan share strong ties, with religious affinity and shared ethnic backgrounds strengthening their bond. The migration of Afghan refugees to Pakistan was often framed as ‘Hijrat,’ a sacred journey or migration, highlighting the religious and cultural connections between the two nations.

Ethnically, the Pukhtun population has been a significant factor in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, with shared history, language, and traditions bridging the divide between the two countries. Despite the presence of the Durand Line, Pukhtuns on both sides have maintained close ties, engaging in trade and travel across the border.

However, despite these constants, situational variables have also shaped Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan. The Pukhtunistan issue, linked to the Durand Line, remains a divisive factor, with Afghanistan advocating for the self-determination of Pukhtuns living on both sides of the border.

Additionally, the tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have been a focal point, originally serving as a buffer between Afghanistan and British India. Post 9/11 dynamics have made the integration of these areas into Pakistan more feasible, with the US supporting Pakistan’s efforts to extend its rule into the region.

The Taliban phenomenon has also significantly influenced Pakistan’s Afghan policy, with Pakistan facing criticism for its support of the Taliban during the Afghan conflict. However, Pakistan’s policy towards the Taliban has been shaped by a lack of understanding of Afghan sociology and history, as well as bureaucratic inefficiencies.

Terrorism, particularly in the wake of the US invasion of Afghanistan, has further complicated Pakistan’s Afghan policy, with the Taliban’s religious ideology intersecting with Pukhtun sociological beliefs. The exclusion of Pukhtuns from the political process in Afghanistan had been seen as counterproductive to peace and stability in the region.

Despite the complete evacuation of its forces, the continued interest of the US in Afghanistan has also influenced Pakistan’s policy framework, with concerns over US policies being dominated by arrogance, recklessness, and ignorance.

Pakistan’s historical role in Afghan affairs is complex and multifaceted, shaped by a combination of geographical, political, economic, and cultural factors. While certain constants have remained, situational variables continue to evolve, presenting challenges and opportunities for Pakistan’s Afghan policy.

Notwithstanding the above, there has been yet another factor that, more or less, remained one of the major driving factors in formulating any policy on Afghanistan; during the era of General Zia-ul-Haq in the 1980s, Pakistan was part of the grand Western strategy to defeat the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Pakistan, at the same time, had carved its small strategy within that grand strategy, known as the “Strategic Depth,” in the shape of Afghanistan against India. Pakistan’s involvement in Afghanistan was deeply intertwined with the broader geopolitical context of the Cold War, where it aligned itself with the United States to counter Soviet influence in the region. Within this framework, Pakistan pursued its agenda, seeking to establish a friendly regime in Afghanistan that would serve as a buffer against potential threats from the West. This approach, characterized by selective support for certain Afghan groups, ultimately fueled instability and discord within Afghanistan.