The Big Bear is Welcome

Pakistan and Russia have a history of chequered relations. In view of the changing global power dynamics, the two countries have been compelled to forge closer diplomatic ties and move forward in such a way that it suits the interests of both countries. New developments bode well for Russia-Pakistan relations and the region at large.

Pakistan and Russia have had an uneven relationship due to the historical baggage of Pakistan’s alliance with the United States. The tilt towards the United States offended Russia, while Pakistan was always skeptical about the Indo-Russian nexus. However, changing times have compelled these countries to realign their priorities.

The visit of Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to Pakistan took the relations of the two counties in new directions. The visit also signaled a change in Russia’s South Asian policy that now recognises the new coalition comprising Russia, China and Pakistan, to counter American hegemony in the region and explores new avenues of cooperation.

India and Russia have enjoyed exemplary relations in the past. Large Indian military hardware came from Russia (previously a part of the now defunct USSR). It was indeed sustained Russian help to India in the 1971 war that helped it to dismember Pakistan. Russia also helped India at multilateral forums, including the UN.

However, Indian inclination towards the US at the cost of Russian-Indian relations did not go down well in Moscow. Consequently, the Kremlin moved towards re-orientation of its South Asian policy. Nevertheless, complete divergence in Indo-Russian relations did not come about. India has a huge consumer market that offers potential benefits; as such, it will always be accorded top priority.

In view of the changing global and regional dynamics, now Russia and Pakistan are coming closer. Stability of Afghanistan, the fight against terrorism, economic and defence cooperation and regional connectivity offer avenues of mutual cooperation. Closer ties between China and Russia have also played a vital role.

Russia and Pakistan, like other regional states, are concerned about the future of Afghanistan. The Biden administration says it will leave Afghanistan completly by September 2021. A US withdrawal prior to the intra-Afghan deal may also create a power vacuum and vested interests may exploit the situation in their favour by creating instability in Afghanistan. As a result, anxiety amongst the regional stakeholders prevails about the future of Afghanistan and possible spillover effect on the adjoining countries. Islamic militants may export terrorism to the Central Asian states, which are in the Russian backyard. Pakistan also has concerns that India may exploit the TTP terrorists and create violence in Pakistan. Both Russia and Pakistan can work together to bring about peace in Afghanistan and maintain stability in the region.